The Film Experience

Late last week I went out for a drinks with an old friend of mine who introduced me to a friend of his I'd never met. They had just seen Jesse Eisenberg's new play and were arguing about how much to tell me about ("spoiler alerts!" and all) though they both highly recommend it.

Once we sat down for drinks and dinner, the topic turned to Oscar. You know I felt immediate kinship when this new insta-friend told me a hilarious story of his teenage self absolutely freaking out on the night of March 29th, 1989 when Jodie Foster's name was read out and his beloved Glenn Close was shunned again. Inconsolable he was!

Let's just say his breakdown was less composed than the Merquise de Merteuil's when she met her ignoble end in Dangerous Liaisons.

After the story, he requested an article on Golden Globe predictions. "You haven't written about that," he says. He's right. So, let's ditch the sword and pick up the globes.

Let's focus on Comedy/Musical ...AFTER THE JUMP. I don't know about you but the #1 reason we love the Globes is that it shines a bright light on movies and performances that might otherwise struggle for awards season traction, since even when the Globes idea of Comedy is actually Slightly Funny Drama, they're still usually "lighter" as it were.

BEST PICTURE COMEDY/MUSICAL
Golden Globe Predictions

Bridesmaids
The Artist
Midnight in Paris
My Week With Marilyn
Young Adult

or maybe? Carnage, Crazy Stupid Love, 50/50 or The Muppets
who knows? Horrible Bosses, The Hangover Part II,

Up until very recently you'd be forgiven for assuming that this is where Woody Allen's Midnight in Paris would get its due. After all Vicky Cristina Barcelona took a surprise win in the category just 3 years ago and this movie is famously his most popular in ages. Now it seems inevitably to be the one sure contest where The Artist will be prevail. It's even got dancing so it can pretend to be a musical as well as a comedy. As for Bridesmaids, its nomination here will get people talking about "can it show up in Best Picture?" and the answer is "of course not!" but the conversation will happen anyway. Such is the power of the Globes.

The trickiest thing about this category is trying to suss out where the borderline films will be placed. Despite the downer that is Marilyn's psyche, My Week With Marilyn spends a lot of time on the set of "the lightest of comedies" and it also has musical numbers so I'm guessing Comedy/Musical. I'm assuming that The Descendants is a drama, despite the numerous funny bits.

How much will this affect the Oscars? A reasonable amount. It will further cement future Best Picture Oscar nominations for the two French-lite movies (The Artist, Midnight in Paris) and maybe give an intangible boost to Bridesmaid's Original Screenplay chances.

Best Actor, Comedy/Musical
Golden Globe Predictions

Jean Dujardin, The Artist
Joseph Gordon-Levitt, 50/50
Ryan Gosling, Crazy Stupid Love
Taylor Lautner, Abduction *JOKE! Just wanted to see if you were paying attention*
Jason Segal, The Muppets
Owen Wilson, Midnight in Paris

or maybe? although now that I'm looking at this, won't they want to make room for Eddie Murphy (Tower Heist) since he's Oscar hosting? Johnny Depp in Rum Diary or Pirates of the Caribbean or both (though that would surprise me. I think they might be a bitsy bit embarrassed about last year), Ben Stiller in Tower Heist, Steve Carell in Crazy Stupid Love. and Paul Rudd in Our Idiot Brother
who knows? Tom Hanks in Larry Crowne, Chris Hemsworth in Thor (comedy?) Matt Damon in We Bought a Zoo (comedy?), Bradley Cooper in The Hangover Part II, Colin Farrell in Fright Night (what? they like him. He was good in it, you know), Adam Sandler in Jack and Jill, (god help us all),

Whaddya know? It's a super duper competitive category after all. I could easily see a lineup where I only get like two guesses right.

Will this affect the Oscars? Doubtful. Though a nomination here for JGL would go a long way towards winning him "award worthy" momentum for future attempts at awards season glory. You have to break the ice at some point.

Drama Predictions as an aside: CLOONEY, DICAPRIO, GOSLING, OLDMAN, and PITT

BEST ACTRESS, COMEDY/MUSICAL
Golden Globe Predictions

Berenice Bejo, The Artist
Jodie Foster, Carnage
Charlize Theron, Young Adult
Kristen Wiig, Bridesmaids
Michelle Williams, My Week With Marilyn

or maybe? Amy Adams in The Muppets? Kate Winslet in Carnage? Cameron Diaz in Bad Teacher?
who knows? Emma Stone in Crazy Stupid Love? Jennifer Aniston in Horrible Bosses or Just Go With It? Anna Faris in What's Your Number?, or SJP in I Don't Know How She Does It.

Will this affect the Oscars: It's quite likely. Especially if Michelle William is considered "comedy/musical"... a win here could go along way in boosting her Oscar profile for a biopic role once the ballots are out. Bejo seems likely to be demoted to "supporting actress" at the Oscars but if there's anywhere where she'll compete as a lead it's at The Globes.

Drama Predictions as an aside: CLOSE, DAVIS, DUNST, OLSEN, STREEP

SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Golden Globe Predictions

Melissa McCarthy, Bridesmaids
Janet McTeer, Albert Nobbs
Carey Mulligan, Shame
Octavia Spencer, The Help
Shailene Woodley, The Descendants

or maybe? virtually anyone, but I wanted to notate this because I think this is where Melissa McCarthy rises again (though I don't actually believe that role is going to become Oscar nominated). But this will likely fool people into believing it as much as they did after the Emmy win.

I am 100% sure I've forgotten something since we don't spend as much time tracking Comedies as we do dramas. And the Globe voting body is notorious for completely bizarre decisions that no one could have predicted (The Tourist anyone?)

ANSWER ME THESE QUESTIONS THREE?
• What do you think of these predictions... where am I right on or totally off my face?
• What will this year's The Tourist be?
• Don't you wish they'd extend the split to the supporting acting categories, too?