You guys. Everywhere I look there are articles or tweets positing that A Star is Born is going to sweep the Oscars, or win 3/4th of the acting categories or whatnot. This is unlikely. It's only because it's the biggest contender currently playing that people are losing their minds. Well, that and because the movie is a terrific piece of big studio entertainment aimed at adults that's also a hit at the box office. You know, the exact kind of movie that people pretend doesn't exist (it does almost annually) and also pretend that Oscar doesn't like (they do almost annually) whenever they write those dumb articles proclaiming "the Oscars are irrelevant!"
A Star is Born is just about at $100 million domestic at this writing but people are acting as if its earned one billion; I definitely wasn't expecting to hear it compared to Titanic today. So, let's all relax for a bit and talk about what is probable/possible since we've just barely finished UPDATING ALL THE OSCAR CHARTS.
BEST PICTURE
I think it's too soon to call A Star is Born the frontrunner. It's just the first big Best Picture possibility to open since February (!) so that's a lot of time since Black Panther to bottle up armchair punditry feeling... bring on awards season! I dont currently believe Star will win (the remake stigma will catch up to it eventually) but let's say for the sake of argument that it does. That's one Oscar. Let's look at the other categories...
BEST DIRECTOR
Bradley Cooper is not winning this, I don't believe. Not when Alfonso Cuarón is right there with what literally everyone who sees will think of in terms of it being a directorial feat, yes even the actors. That's not the case with A Star is Born... even though it's well-directed. What's more we don't know that he'll be nominated. The director's branch sometimes thinks for themselves. Remember Ben Affleck's snub for Argo? In fact, I'd argue it would be better for Bradley Cooper's Best Actor chances if he were snubbed here. But even if he is nominated, splits are quite frequent now so dont expect it to take both prizes.
BEST ACTOR
I really want Bradley Cooper to win this but something tells me he won't (Viggo, Bale, Eastwood, Hawke, all feel possible as winners if nominated). But for the sake of argument we'll say he does. That's two Oscars for the film.
BEST ACTRESS
Lady Gaga is probably not going to win. She'll put a big fight and probably take the Golden Globe but in the end it's going elsewhere, presumably to either Glenn Close or Olivia Colman. Especially since a lot of voters will know they can vote for Gaga to win the Oscar for best song and feel great about that because she 1000% deserves it.
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
It can win here. But will it? I'm guessing no. Only five previous films have won both best male acting trophies: Dallas Buyer's Club (2013), Mystic River (2003), Ben-Hur (1959), The Best Years of Our Lives (1946), and Going My Way (1944) and 60% of those times the films also won Best Picture. In short: it doesn't happen often. Interestingly enough if Bradley and Sam do both win it will be the first time ever that two actors win for playing brothers.
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Unless you wanna do a write-in for Gail...
BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
I don't currently believe it will get nominated here. This category is always competitive and musicals are among the first Best Picture nominees to be dropped for writing, even if they're well written.
BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY
As much as we all want to see Matthew Libatique holding an Oscar after his exciting career, Roma or First Man feel far more like traditional cinematography winners.
BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN
Probably won't be nominated here considering their aversion to contemporary films.
BEST FILM EDITING
This will be an interesting contest but since we're pretending it's winning Best Picture, let's say that it also wins here. I guess it could, actually, even if the film doesn't win Best Picture.
BEST COSTUME DESIGN
Probably won't be nominated here considering their aversion to contemporary films.
BEST ORIGINAL SCORE
Probably won't be eligible here since it's mostly songs.
BEST SOUND MIXING
Though Roma or First Man or Black Panther or what not could conceivably put up fights given their technical elements, I'm guessing A Star is Born wins this regardless of its fate in other categories. Beloved music films do well here.
BEST SOUND EDITING
Musicals aren't always nominated in both sound categories so let's say it misses this nomination (which is a harder get for musicals than mixing anyway).
BEST ORIGINAL SONG
Provided the music branch doesn't do something unthinkable (they have before), this Oscar is the only one that's locked up.
GRAND TOTAL: 5 Oscars... 6 best case scenario. But I'm guessing 4 is most likely, losing either Picture or Actor in the scenario above. Regardless, it's not like it's sweeping. Everyone calm down!