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Index | Picture | Actress | Actor | Supp Actor | Supp ActressDirector 
Screenplays | Visuals | Music and Sound | Animation & Docs | International Film

98th Oscars. Predictions for the Films of 2025
 For prediction, discussion, entertainment purposes only discuss on the blog

 

SUBMISSION CHARTS
most recent update: 10/14/2025

CHART 2: HAITI through NORWAY
28 of 89 Submissions

Haiti
never nominated | submitting since 2017

KIDNAPPING INC
dir. Bruno Morrai
no US distribution yet

107 minutes
Haitian Creole, French

This once was announced as a submission last year but mysteriously didn't appear on the final official list of submissions. 

only previous submissions
2021 - Freda
2017 - Ayiti Mon Amour

Hong Kong
3 nominations | + 1 finalist | submitting since 1959

THE LAST DANCE
dir. Anselm Chan
no US distribution yet

127 or 140 minutes*
Cantonese

A drama about a wedding planner who switches careers into the funeral industry. It's been a major prize winner in Asia and a box office smash as well with acting awards for its stars Michael Hui and Michelle Wai

* There are two cuts of the film but we do not know which was submitted to the Academy

3 classic snubbed submissions
2013- The Grandmaster
2003 - Infernal Affairs
2000 - In the Mood for Love

Hungary
10 noms | 2 wins | + 2 finalists | submitting since 1965

ORPHAN
dir. Laszlo Nemes
no US distribution yet

132 minutes
Hungarian

Set in the aftermath of the Hungarian rising against Communism (1950s) it's the story of a young boy learning about his mother's experience in World War II.

This is Nemes third picture and his third submission. He won the category for Son of Saul (2015) 

3 key submissions:
2017- On Body and Soul
2014 - White God
2011 - the Turin Horse

Iceland
1 nomination | + 4 finalists | submitting since 1980

THE LOVE THAT REMAINS
Hylmur Palmasson
playing at NYFF this yr

109 minutes
Icelandic.

As expected they've chosen the autobiographical divorce film from one of their favourite sons. The directors children appear as the protagonists children. This is Palmasson's third submission after A White White Day and the acclaimed finalist Godland.

3 underappreciated submissions
2019 - A White White Day
2018 - Woman at War
2013 - Of Horses and Men

India
3 nominations | +1 finalist
submitting since 1957

HOMEBOUND
dir. Neeraj Ghaywan
Released earlier this year in US

122 minutes
Hindi

The screenplay was inspired by a New York Times essay from 2020 about two migrant workers during the COVID-19 lockdown. 

This is the first Hindi language submission from India in six years. They used to primarily submit Hindi language films (all three of their nominees are Hindi language films)

3 key submissions
2022 - Last Film Show
2015 - Court
2022 - Devdas

 

Indonesia
never nominated | submitting since 1987

SORE: WIFE FROM THE FUTURE
dir. Yandy Laurens
no US distribution yet

119 minutes
Indonesian, English, Croatian

a premise film: what would happen if your spouse came from the future and wanted you to change your life?

3 key submissions
2023 - Autobiography
2021 - Yuni
2019 - Memories of My Body

Iran
3 noms | 2 wins | + 2 finalists | submitting since 1977

CAUSE OF DEATH UNKNOWN
dir. Ali Zarnegar
no US distribution yet

104 minutes
Persian

TEXT

Not selected:
The other four finalists were...Call Me Ziba by Rasul Sadr AmeliThe Old Bachelor by Oktay Baraheni, Raha by Hesam Farahmand, and Woman and Child by Saeed Roustayi

Iraq
never nominated | submitting since 2005

THE PRESIDENT'S CAKE
dir. Hasan Hadi
TBA in US
SONY PICTURES CLASSICS

102 minutes
Arabic

Winner of the Camera d'Or at Cannes this drama is about a young girl forced to bake a birthday cake in honor of Sadam Hussein

3 key submissions
2024 - Baghdad Messi
2023 - Hanging Gardens
2005 - Requiem of Snow

Ireland
1 nominee | + 2 finalists | submitting spottily since 2005

SANATORIUM
dir Gar O'Rourke
no US Distribution Yet

90 minutes
Ukrainian

A documentary about a former Soviet health center now treating Ukrainians as the war rages. 

Trivia: of Ireland's 12 submissions thus far, 3 of them have been documentaries (Gaza, In the Shadow of Bierut, Sanatorium)

3 key submissions
2024 - Kneecap
2022 - The Quiet Girl
2015  -Viva

Israel
10 noms | 0 wins | + 1 finalist |  submitting since 1964

THE SEA
dir. Shai Carmeli-Pollak
no US distribution yet

93 minutes
Arabic and Hebrew

A drama about a 12 year old Palestinian boy who is thrilled to see the sea for the first time on a school trip until Israeli military checkpoint soldiers refuse to let him continue with his class.

The Israeli government is furious that this film won Best Picture.

not selected:
Israel sends the Ophir winner each year. The other nominees were...  Dead Language (based on an Oscar-nominated short!), an Israeli lawyer in Georgia drama Nandauri,  an intense mother son drama Oxgyen, and the political satire from Nadav Lapid called Yes.

3 key snubbed submissions:
2012 - Fill the Void
2010 - The Human Resources Manager
2001 - Late Marriage

 

 

Italy
29 noms | 11 wins | + 3 honoraries | + 2 finalists | submitting since 1956

FAMILIA
dir. Francesco Constabile
no US distribution yet

124 minutes
Italian

A family thriller focused on a young far right militant man from a home filled with domestic violence.

not selected:
Other films that were rumores as consideration were Duse (Pietro Marcello) and La Grazia (Paolo Sorrentino) which are both biopics that were well received in Venice, as well as the documentary Below the Clouds (Gianfranco Rosi) 

Japan
15 noms | 2 wins | + 3 honoraries | + 1 finalist | submitting since 1956

KOKUHO
dir. Lee Sang-Il
Early 2026
GKids in US

175 minutes

Japanese

We are predicting this epic drama about two kabuki performers, one the son of gangsters, the other his mentor (Oscar nominee Ken Watanabe)

GKids will distribute in the US and interestingly it's the only time they've ever picked up a live-action film.

3 recent nominees:
2023 - Perfect Days
2021 - Drive My Car
2018 -Shoplifters

Jordan
1 nom | submitting since 2008

ALL THAT'S LEFT OF YOU
dir. Cherien Dabis
Nov 20 in US 
Distributor?

145 minutes
Arabic

A Palestinian mother recounts her son's journey to a moment when he is confronted by Israeli soldiers. The director Dabis also co-stars in the picture. (She is a Palestinian American but her mother is from Jordan, hence this being a Jordanian submission.

Fun trivia: She was Emmy nominated for directing Only Murders in the Building)

3 key submissions:
2023 - Inshallah A Boy
2020 - 200 Meters
2015 - Thesis

Kazakhstan
1 nomination | + 2 finalists | submitting since 1992

CADET
dir. Adilkhan Yerzhanov
no US distribution yet

126 minutes
Kazakh, Russian

A horror film involving a mother who teachers at a military academy and her gentle son who faces bullying and begins to change.

Yerzhanov was previously submitted for Yellow Cat (2021)

3 key submissions:
2018 - Ayka
2009 - Kelin
2008 - Tulpan

Kyrgyzstan
never nominated | submitting since 1998

BLACK RED YELLOW
dir. Aktan Abdykalykov
DATE TBA
MUBI in US

93 minutes
Kyrgyz, Russian

The film, based on a collection of short stories, centers on a carpet weaver and a horse herder. It won the top prize at the Shanghai International Film Festival.

Abdykalykov has been submitted five previous times by his home country!

 

 

Latvia
1 nomination| 
submitting since 1992

DOG OF GOD
dir. Lauris Ābele and Raitis Ābele
no US distribution yet

92 minutes
Latvian and German

A supernatural horror comedy about a self-proclaimed werewolf and a witchcraft trial in a 17th century village

3 key submissions
2024 - Flow
2020 - Blizzard of Souls
2014 - Rocks in My Pockets

Lebanon
2 nominations | 0 wins | submitting since 1978

A SAD AND BEAUTIFUL WORLD
dir.  Cyril Aras
no US distribution yet

110 minutes
Lebanese

A romantic dramedy about childhood sweethearts reunited in their 20s.

Winner of Peoples Choice in the Venice Days Section in Venice

3 key submissions
2021 - Costa Brava Lebanon
2019 - 1982
2011 - Where Do We Go Now? 

Lithuania
never nominated | submitting since 2006

SOUTHERN CHRONICLES
dir. Ignas Miskinis
No US Distribution Yet

120 minutes
Lithuanian

The film, about a 17 year old who isn't interested in studying until he falls in love with a middle class girl, has become the highest grossing Lithuanian film of all time.

Luxembourg
never nominated | submitting since 2006

BREATHING UNDERWATER
dir. Eric Lamhane
no US distribution yet

101 minutes
French, Luxembourgish, Spanish, Italian

A drama set inside a women's shelter. 

3 key submissions:
2019 - Tel Aviv on Fire
2016 - Voices from Chernobyl
2015 - Baby (a)lone

Madagascar
FIRST SUBMISSION!

DISCO AFRIKA: A MALAGASY STORY
dir. Luck Razanajaona
no US distribution yet

81 minutes
Malagasy

A young man must choose between easy money and a political awakening.

This is Madagascar's first ever submission. It originally premiered at a 2023 festival.

 

 

Latvia
1 nomination| 
submitting since 1992

DOG OF GOD
dir. Lauris Ābele and Raitis Ābele
no US distribution yet

92 minutes
Latvian and German

A supernatural horror comedy about a self-proclaimed werewolf and a witchcraft trial in a 17th century village

3 key submissions
2024 - Flow
2020 - Blizzard of Souls
2014 - Rocks in My Pockets

Lebanon
2 nominations | 0 wins | submitting since 1978

A SAD AND BEAUTIFUL WORLD
dir.  Cyril Aras
no US distribution yet

110 minutes
Lebanese

A romantic dramedy about childhood sweethearts reunited in their 20s.

Winner of Peoples Choice in the Venice Days Section in Venice

3 key submissions
2021 - Costa Brava Lebanon
2019 - 1982
2011 - Where Do We Go Now? 

Lithuania
never nominated | submitting since 2006

SOUTHERN CHRONICLES
dir. Ignas Miskinis
No US Distribution Yet

120 minutes
Lithuanian

The film, about a 17 year old who isn't interested in studying until he falls in love with a middle class girl, has become the highest grossing Lithuanian film of all time.

Luxembourg
never nominated | submitting since 2006

BREATHING UNDERWATER
dir. Eric Lamhane
no US distribution yet

101 minutes
French, Luxembourgish, Spanish, Italian

A drama set inside a women's shelter. 

3 key submissions:
2019 - Tel Aviv on Fire
2016 - Voices from Chernobyl
2015 - Baby (a)lone

Mexico
9 noms |  1 win | + 5 finalists | submitting since 1957

WE SHALL NOT BE MOVED
dir. Pierre St Martin
no US distribution yet

100 minutes
Spanish

An aging lawyer becomes obsessed with identifying the soldiers who murdered her brother in 1968. 

Won 4 Ariel Awards in Mexico:  Actress, Breakthrough Actor, Screenplay, First Film

not selected: 
Nine other films were considered: 1938: When Mexico Regained Its Oil, Concerto for Other Hands, Cracked, Dead Man's Switch, Fine Young Men, The Follies, I Am Frankelda, and Rain

3 critical darling recent submissions:
2023 - Totem
2021 - Prayers for the Stolen
2011 - Miss Bala

 

 

Mongolia
never nominated | submitting infrequently since 2003

SILENT CITY DRIVER
dir. Janchivdorj Sengedorj
no US distribution yet

138 minutes
Mongolian

A drama about an 32 year old man released from prison who begins to care for stray dogs and becomes a hearse driver.

3 key submissions
2023 - City of Wind
2005 - Cave of the Yellow Dog
2003 - Story of the Weeping Camel

Montenegro
never nominated | submitting since 2013

TOWER OF STRENGTH
dir. Nikola Vukcevek
No US Distribution Yet

95 minutes
Serbo-Croatian, ALbanian

A drama taking place in Yugoslavia during WOrld War II about a Montenegrin child  who escapes an ALbanian attack and finds shelter with an Albanian Muslim man. Alban Ukaj (Quo Vadis Adia) and Edon Rizvanolli (The Diplomat) are in the cast.

Vukvecic was previously submitted a decade ago for his film The Kids from the Marx & Engels Street

3 most recent submissions:
2024 - Supermarket
2023 - Sirin
2022 - The Elegy of Laurel

CALLE MÁLAGA
dir. Maryam Touzani
no US distribution yet

116 minutes
Spanish, Arabic

César, EFA, and Goya winning goddess Carmen Maura -- star of classic Oscar nominee Women on the Verge... and two other classic submissions (Ay Carmela, Volver) -- plays a woman determined to keep her family home when her daughter intends to sell it.

This is Touzani's third submission. It was cowritten by her husband Nabil Ayouch who is Morocco's most submitted director with five films. (Touzani is currently the second-most submitted)

3 flnalists so far:
2023 - Mother of All Lies
2022 - The Blue Caftan
2011 - Omar Killed Me

Nepal
1 nomination | submitting since 1999

ANJILA
dir. Milan Chams
Released earlier this year in US

146 minutes
Nepali

A sports drama about the first female captain of a football team. (The athlete plays herself in this biographical picture)

3 key submissions:
2024 - Shambhala
2019 - Bulbul
2017 - White Sun

The Netherlands
7 noms | 3 wins | + 3 finalists | submitting since 1959

REEDLANDS
dir. Sven Bresser
no US distribution yet

105 minutes
Dutch

In this mystery a reed cutter finds a dead girl on his land. This is a debut for Bresser and it premiered at Cannes

Not Selected:
The other pther seven finalists were: father/son adventure Alpha, a father/son dramedy in black and white Three Days of Fish, crime drama Fabula, child immigrant drama Live For Me, vacation drama Our Girls (from the director of Oscar winning Character), and two documentaries The Propagandist, and The System

3 classic snubbed submissions:
2006 - Black Book
2013 - Borgman
1988 - The Vanishing

 

 

North Macedonia
2 noms | submitting since 1994

THE TALE OF THE SILYIAN
dir. Tamara Kotevska
no US distribution yet

TIFF Review

80 minutes
Macedonian

A documentary about a farmer and a white stork.  Kotevska was previously nominated in this category as co-director of the great doc Honeyland.

North Macedonia did not submit last year. This year we thought it might be the popular festival film DJ Ahmet but perhaps it wasn't eligible or they liked this one better.

3 key submissions:
2023 - Housekeeping for Beginners
2019 - Honeyland
1994 - Before the Rain

Norway
6 nominations | + 3 finalists |  submitting since 1957

SENTIMENTAL VALUE
dir. Joachim Trier
November in US
NEON

Cannes Capsule
TIFF Review

135 minutes
Norwegian and English

This Cannes Grand Prix winner revolves around a filmmaker (Stellan Skarsgaard) and his estranged relationship with his actress daughter (Reinata Reinsve) who refuses to star in his new movie about their family. 

This is Trier's 3rd submission after Reprise (2006) Thelma (2017) and The Worst Person in the World (2021).

Not Selected:
The other finalists were the Golden Bear winning Dreams (Sex Love) from fast-rising wonderful auteur Dag Johan Haugerud, and the documentary Stoltenberg Facing War.

3 best Norwegian nominees:
2021 -Worst Person in the World
1987 - Pathfinder
1957 - Nine Lives

return to Chart 1
ALGERIA - GREENLAND

continue to Chart 3
PALESTINE - VIETNAM

 

PREDICTIONS FOR THE FINALIST LIST

 

OVERALL OSCAR PREDICTIONS

 

KENYA
KOSOVO
MALAYSIA
MALTA
MOLDOVA
NAMIBIA
NIGERIA

... appear to have not submitted this year.

 

Current Predictions

Pt 1 - ALBANIA through GREECE  
➡️ Pt 3 - PAKISTAN through VIETNAM

 

Index | Picture | Actress | Actor | Supp Actor | Supp Actress | Director 
Screenplays | Visuals | Music and Sound | Animation & Docs | International Film