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Oscar Predictions
for the 98th Academy Awards
2025 FILM YEAR / 2026 OSCAR CEREMONY
CURRENT DISCUSSIONS ABOUT THIS RACE

PREDICTIONS FOR THE 98TH ACADEMY AWARDS
 All Charts Updated as of 11/15
 


PRELIMINARY VOTING FOR CATEGORIES THAT USE SHORTLISTS: Mon Dec 8, 2025
SHORTLISTS ANNOUNCEMENTS: Tuesday Dec 16, 2025
NOMINATION VOTING: January 12-16, 2026
NOMINATIONS ANNOUNCED: Thursday January 22, 2025
FINAL VOTING: February 26, 2025
OSCAR NIGHT: Sunday March 15, 2026

 

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PICTURE

FRANKENSTEIN

HAMNET

JAY KELLY

MARTY SUPREME

ONE BATTLE AFTER ANOTHER

SECRET AGENT

SENTIMENTAL VALUE

SINNERS

TRAIN DREAMS

WICKED FOR GOOD

ACTRESS

BUCKLEY
Hamnet

BYRNE
If I Had Legs I'd Kick You

REINSVE
Sentimental Value

STONE
Bugonia

THOMPSON
Hedda

ACTOR

CHALAMET
Marty Supreme

CLOONEY
Jay Kelly

DICAPRIO
One Battle After Another

HAWKE
Blue Moon

MOURA
Secret Agent

DIRECTOR 

ANDERSON
One Battle After Another

COOGLER
Sinners

FILHO
Secret Agent

SAFDIE
Marty Supreme

ZHAO
Hamnet

CASTING

JAY KELlY
Gold & Aibel

MARTY SUPREME
Venditti

ONE BATTLE AFTER ANOTHER
Kulukundis

SINNERS
Maisler

WAKE UP DEAD MAN
Vernieu

SUPPORTING
ACTRESS

A'ZION
Marty Supreme

CLOSE
Wake Up Dead Man

LILLEAAS
Sentimental Value

MADIGAN
Weapons

TAYLOR
One Battle After Another

SUPPORTING
ACTOR 

DEL TORO
One Battle After Another

MESCAL
Hamnet

PENN
One Battle After Another

SCOTT
Blue Moon

SKARSGÅRD
Sentimental Value

ORIGINAL
SCREENPLAY

Kapow
BLUE MOON

Panahi
IT WAS JUST AN ACCIDENT

Baumbach & Mortimer
JAY KELLY

Bronstein & Safdie
MARTY SUPREME

Trier
SENTIMENTAL VALUE

ADAPTED
SCREENPLAY

Tracy
BUGONIA

Del Toro
FRANKENSTEIN

O'Farrell & Zhao
HAMNET

Anderson
ONE BATTLE AFTER ANOTHER

Bentley & Kwedar
TRAIN DREAMS

CINEMATOGRAPHY

Laustsen
FRANKENSTEIN

Zal
HAMNET

Khondji
MARTY SUPREME

Bauman
ONE BATTLE AFTER ANOTHER

Veloso
TRAIN DREAMS

COSTUME DESIGN

Hawley
FRANKENSTEI

Turzanska
HAMNET

Bellizzi
MARTY SUPREME

Carter
SINNERS

Tazewell
WICKED FOR GOOD

PRODUCTION DESIGN

Cole & Procter
AVATAR FIRE AND ASH

Deverell
FRANKENSTEIN

Crombie
HAMNET

Fisk
MARTY SUPREME

Crowley
WICKED FOR GOOD

 

FILM EDITING

Mirrione
F1: THE MOVIE

Goncalves & Zhao
HAMNET

Bronstein
MARTY SUPREME

Jurgensen
ONE BATTLE AFTER ANOTHER

Farias & Serrano
SECRET AGENT

 

MAKEUP & HAIR

Hill, Samuel, Newburn
FRANKENSTEIN

Thorisdottir, Mond, Tuiten
ONE BATTLE AFTER ANOTHER

Hiro
THE SMASHING MACHINE

Diaz, Richards, Fontaine
SINNERS

Satkovich, Wheat, Collins
WEAPONS

VISUAL EFFECTS

AVATAR FIRE AND ASH

THE FANTASTIC FOUR: FIRST STEPS

HOW TO TRAIN YOUR DRAGON

JURASSIC WORLD REBIRTH

TRON ARES

 

ORIGINAL SCORE

Desplat
FRANKENSTEIN

Richter
HAMNET

Bertellman
HOUSE OF DYNAMITE

Goransson
SINNERS

Dressner
TRAIN DREAMS

 

ORIGINAL SONG 

"Dear Me"
DIANE WARREN: RELENTLESS

"Golden"
KPOP DEMON HUNTERS

"I Lied To You"
SINNERS

"Last Time I Seen the Sun"
SINNERS

"Girl in the Bubble"
WICKED FOR GOOD

SOUND

AVATAR FIRE AND ASH

F1: THE MOVIE

ONE BATTLE AFTER ANOTHER

SINNERS

WICKED FOR GOOD

INTERNATIONAL FILM 


France
IT WAS JUST AN ACCIDENT

Iraq
THE PRESIDENT'S CAKE

Brazil
THE SECRET AGENT

Norway
SENTIMENTAL VALUE

Tunisia
THE VOICE OF HIND RAJAB

ANIMATED FILM

Netflix
IN YOUR DREAMS

Netflix
KPOP DEMON HUNTERS

GKids
LITTLE AMELIE OR THE CHARACTER OF RAIN

Sony Pictures Classics
MAGNIFICENT LIFE

Disney
ZOOTOPIA 2

 

DOCUMENTARY

Chernov
2000 METERS TO ANDRIIVKA

Poitras & Obenhaus
COVER-UP

DiMarco & Guggenheim
DEAF PRESIDENT NOW!

Snyder
THE LIBRARIANS

Peck
ORWELL 2+2=5

SHORTS, DOCUMENTARY

predictions come mid December

SHORTS,
LIVE ACTION

predictions come mid December

SHORTS,
ANIMATED

predictions come mid December

 

 

 

sound off on the Oscar race

 

PREDICTED TALLIES
Though I have three films predicted for acting nods that I do not have predicted for best picture (Blue Moon, Hedda, If I Had Legs I'd Kick You, Weapons) ... and this seems highly unlikely (sigh) since the acting branch has been sticking closer and closer to 'Best Pictures only, please!'

12 noms
One Battle After Another

10 noms
Hamnet
Marty Supreme

8 noms
Sinners

7 noms
Frankenstein

6 noms
Sentimental Value

5 noms
Secret Agent
Wicked For Good

4 noms
Jay Kelly - Best Picture with least nominations (tie)
Train Dreams - Best Picture. with least nominations (tie)

3 noms
Avatar: Fire and Ash - most nominations w/out Best Picture (tie)
Blue Moon - most nominations w/out Best Picture (tie)

2 noms
Bugonia
F1 The Movie
It Was Just An Accident
KPop Demon Hunters
Wake Up Dead Man
Weapons

1 nom
2000 Meters to Andriivka
Cover-Up
Deaf President Now!
Diane Warren: Relentless
The Fantastic Four: First Steps
Hedda
House of Dynamite
How to Train Your Dragon
If I Had Legs I'd Kick You
In Your Dreams
Jurassic World Rebirth
The Librarians
Little Amelie or the Character of Rain
Magnificent Life
Orwell 2+2=5
The Smashing Machine
Tron Ares
The President's Cake
The Voice of Hind Rajab
Zootopia 2

high profile shut out - though I sincerely hope I'm wrong in some of these cases
Dead Man's Wire, Die My Love, Elio,  Is This Thing On?, Kiss of the Spider-Woman, No Other Choice, Song Sung Blue, Springsteen: Deliver Me From Nowhere, and The Testament of Ann Lee