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94th Oscars. The Predicted Nominees of 2021 --- this page is under construction
NOMINATIONS: February 8th, 2022
CEREMONY: March 27th, 2022
For prediction, discussion, entertainment purposes only discuss on the blog
AND THE NOMINEES ARE
(scroll down for adapted)
ORIGINAL SCREENPLAYS*stats below reflect writing categories only TIER 1 - Predicted five |
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BELFAST WINNER wins: Globes, CCA, and a couple of critics groups A personal passion project, a mamoir of the director's childhood during the onset of "The Troubles" in Northern Ireland. Branagh has been nominated in 7 different categories including both writing categories (an all time record) |
DON'T LOOK UP wins: WGA, 1 critics group A satire/comedy about science that no one will listen to... in other words, zeitgeisty. The earth is doomed so... laugh about it? |
KING RICHARD wins: 1 critics group True story inspirational sports drama about how the father of Venus & Serena Williams raised them to become tennis superstars. |
LICORICE PIZZA wins: NYFCC, and a handful of critics groups A 1970s vibes comedy about first love in the Valley as a directionless 20something meets a professional teen actor and budding entrepeneur. PTA has other nominations for producing and directing but the writing branch loves him best. |
WORST PERSON IN THE WORLD wins: -- A brilliant existential romantic-dramedy about a young woman who can't seem to make up her mind and her romantic entanglements with an older cartoonist and a barista her own age. Vogt & Trier have been writing partners since the beginning of their careers. Vogt is also a director. This is the first Norwegian film ever nominated for writing at the Oscars. |
| What SHOULD win? (Vote daily) | ||||
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survey services
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| How'd I do on my predictions? | ||||
| Correctly guessed 4/5. Did not see Worst Person in the World coming even though it's on my personal ballot for Best Original Screenplay. I figured that not enough of them had screened it yet given the withholding release strategy. | ||||
| What was left out? | ||||
| The big omission was Being the Ricardos since the writing branch usually likes Aaron Sorkin's work. Other acclaimed screenplays that missed were Gotham nominees like Card Counter , Red Rocket, and The Green Knight, and Spirit nominees like Pig, Swan Song and Test Pattern. | ||||
| What WILL win? | ||||
| Given its nomination strength in so many categories Belfast is a threat but sentiment for Paul Thomas Anderson to finally win an Oscar might be there (via Licorice Pizza). Or perhaps Don't Look Up gives McKay a second win. Three-way race we're thinking. In the end we guessed a wild surprise with Worst Person triumphing but in the end it was our 'runner up' prediction Belfast which won. | ||||
| What SHOULD win? | ||||
| Worst Person in the World is a masterful inventive emotionally complex and funny screenplay. Here's my ballot in that category | ||||
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ADAPTED SCREENPLAY*stats below reflect writing categories only. If there's an asterisk they've been nominated in other categories |
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CODA WINNER wins: WGA, 1 critics group Remake of the French film The Belier Family (2014). |
DRIVE MY CAR wins: LAFCA, and a few other critics groups Based on Haruki Murakami's short story with healthy doses of Chekhov and Uncle Vanya mixed in. This is only the second Japanese film nominated for writing. The first was Hiroshima Mon Amour (1960) |
DUNE wins: --
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THE LOST DAUGHTER wins: Gotham Based on the famous Ferrante novel of the same name. Fun Trivia: Maggie Gyllenhaal's mother Naomi Foner was also an Oscar nominee for writing (in Original Screenplay for Running on Empty) when Maggie was just 11 years old. |
POWER OF THE DOG wins: Globes, CCA, and dozens of critics groups Based on the novel by Thomas Savage. Campion previous won a writing Oscar but in Original for The Piano (1993) |
| READER'S CHOICE (Vote Daily) | ||||
| How'd I do on my predictions? | ||||
| 5/5 it was a rough year for our pundity. This is the only time in history where we've only guessed one category 100% corrrect in our long history of Oscar predictions! So Adapted Screenplay was our saving grace this year. | ||||
| What was left out? | ||||
| We still find it galling and unfortunate that Tony Kushner's brilliant reinvention of West Side Story was shunned (it's on our preferred ballot for this category). Other screenplays with some buzz and at least a little precursor support were Tragedy of Macbeth, Nightmare Alley, Passing, Tick tick Boom, and Zola | ||||
| What WILL win? | ||||
| At the time of nominations we thought Jane Campion could win her second writing Oscar for The Power of the Dog with the off chance that Drive My Car could surrpise to take a second Oscar outside of International Feature. Surprises do happen in the Screenplay categories. But as the season progressed it became clear that CODA was winning this. | ||||
| What SHOULD win? | ||||
| Either of those titles would be a worthy winner but we're rooting for Dog, as always. Here's my ballot in this category | ||||
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