Tier 1 - Current Predictions

At the moment, in mid November, these five look the strongest... but a lot can happen between mid November and mid January!

Sean Penn
2 wins
ONE BATTLE AFTER ANOTHER
(Warner Bros)

Role: Lockjaw, a hyper masculine racist soldier with a fetish for black women.

A deeply uncomfortable always riveting creation -- Penn hasn't been this great since Milk. We think it's a done deal. But we're not "locking" him just yet because the supporting races sometimes throw weird curveballs around much-honored performers.

noms:
HCA (Com), 
wins:
n/a

Paul Mescal
1 nom
HAMNET
(Focus)

Role: [CO-LEAD] William Shakespeare grieving the loss of his child 

The most exciting young actor to emerge this decade. I bet there would be room for him in the lead race so hoping against hope that voters do a course correct with campaigns. 

noms:
HCA (Drama), 
wins:
n/a

Stellan Skarsgård
never nominated
SENTIMENTAL VALUE
(Neon)

Role: [CO-LEAD] Gustav Born, a once-great filmmaker eager to reconnect with his angry actress daughter

This showcase performance as an estranged difficult director / father seems like the perfect opportunity to honor his enduring under-awarded career. But subtitled performances are never sure things until they are. We'll see.

noms:
Gotham, EFA (Lead), HCA (Drama), 
wins:
n/a

Benicio Del Toro
2 noms | 1 win
ONE BATTLE AFTER ANOTHER
(Warner Bros)

Role: Sergio, a local sensei and community activist.

A charistmatically zen performance amidst the chaos of this ride of a movie. We'd be worried about a snub (he makes it look way too easy and they like showy work) but it's got Best Picture heat so we think he's safe.

noms:
Gotham, HCA (Com), 
wins:
n/a

Andrew Scott
never nominated
BLUE MOON
(Sony Pictures Classics)

Role: Legendary composer Richard Rodgers on the night of the premiere of his instant classic "Oklahoma!"

He won a well deserved Silver Bear at Berlin for his inspired take on this role. You can feel the entire history of his relationship with Lorenz Hart (his previous songwriting partner)  in his reactions and line readings. Wonderful work.

noms:
Gotham
wins:
n/a

Tier 2 - Potential Spoilers

Mid November is still "early" in that the precursors haven't narrowed things down yet. People can still rise or fall from (projected) favor.

Adam Sandler
never nominated
JAY KELLY
(Netflix)

Role: 

He's said to steal the show. That unsuccessful but "almost there" Unsung Gems campaign will absolutely not hurt his chances here. If the film is a hit with the acting branch we could see a Best Picture nod, too.

noms:
Gotham, HCA (Com),  (Com), 
wins:
n/a
good PR:
AARP (Tribute), 

Delroy Lindo
never nominated
SINNERS
(Warner Bros)

Role: Delta Slim

Even when the Academy likes genre films they don't always spring for the actors therein. (That said don't they kind of owe Lindo for passing over his great work in Da 5 Bloods)

noms:
HCA (Drama), 
wins:
n/a
good PR:
Gotham Cast Tribute

Jacob Elordi
never nominated
FRANKENSTEIN
(Netflix)

Role: [CO-LEAD] The Creature, the childlike reanimated corpse of legend

Best in show by a country mile in Del Toro's uneven epic. His work as "The Creature" is physically inspired, intellectually curious, and emotionally wounded. Great work but he's the co-lead. The entire second half of the movie is his!

noms:
Gotham, HCA (Drama), 
wins:
n/a
good PR:
Gotham Vanguard Tribute

Christoph Waltz
2 noms | 2 wins
FRANKENSTEIN
(Netflix)

Role: The sickly deep pocketed patron of Victor Frankenstein's experiments

New Fear Unlocked (Django Redux): Waltz in but Elordi out. Imagine Waltz being honored again for the kind of smarmy predictable audience-pandering perf he always gives while another famous actor is doing truly inspired work in the same category in the same film and snubbed.

noms:
n/a
wins:
n/a

Jonathan Bailey

never nominated
WICKED FOR GOOD
(Universal)

Role: Fiyero, torn between his allegiance to Oz and Elphaba, the "wicked witch"

Did his SAG nod last year portend things to come or was it just SAG being SAG? Bailey's career is on fire now and stranger things have happened.

noms:
HCA (Com), 
wins:
n/a

Tier 3 - Long Shots

In another year or in slightly difference circumstances, it's easy to see any of them competing.

William H Macy
1 nomination
TRAIN DREAMS
(Netflix)

Role: Arnt, a nomadic logger with explosives expertise

He's the best he's been in many years as an old man at odds with his job given that he's attuned to the beauty of the natural world. Oscar voters tend to steer clear of small roles these days. Otherwise he'd be a major threat. 

noms:
n/a
wins:
n/a

Alexander Skarsgård

never nominated
PILLION
(A24)

Role: Ray, a gay biker.

Hear me out.  Oscar voters going for a BDSM drama with Skarsgard as a leather daddy is a big ask but how cool would it be to get father/son nominees at the Oscars?

noms:
Gotham
wins:
n/a

Jacobi Jupe
never nominated
HAMNET
(Focus)

Role: Hamnet -- Titular Character Alert! -- the doomed son of the Shakespeares

Oscar historically resists nominating male child actors . Screen dad Mescal being in the same category is probably the death blow. And yet Best Picture buzz lifts all players. (Yes, he's the brother of Noah Jupe who is now 19 but who was also a stellar actor as a child.)

noms:
n/a
wins:
n/a

Colman Domingo

2 nominations
DEAD MAN'S WIRE
(Row K)

Role: Fred Temple, a hostage negotiator

A classic kind of supporting role  for a popular actor. But how much of the movie is he in? The new distributor has something to prove so if they go all in maybe we'll see buzz grow?

noms:
n/a
wins:
n/a

Jeremy Strong
1 nomination
DELIVER ME FROM NOWHERE
(20th Century)

Role: The fiercely protective manager of Bruce Springsteen

True story: Performances this bad (sorry not sorry) are sometimes nominated. And he's hot off his first nomination which will help. I live in terror of this nod happening.

noms:
n/a
wins:
n/a

Tier 4 - Vote Siphoners

If voters watch a lot of movies this year (our eternal dream) they are bound to have their own idiosyncratic ballots.

FYC -- a big year for them...

• Josh O'Connor - Wake Up Dead Man HCA (Comedy) Nominee
• Lewis Pullman - Thunderbolts* AND The Testament of Ann Lee

They're in a high profile film and that never hurts!

• Aidan Delbis - Bugonia
• Idris Elba - House of Dynamite
• Jack O'Connell -Sinners  Gotham Cast Tribute, 
•  Miles Caton Sinners - Gotham Cast Tribute, HCA (Drama) Nominee, 
• Pedro Pascale & Chris Evans - The Materialists
• Tyler the Creator - Marty Supreme (A24)

These roles seemed promising on paper for awards buzz but movies and reactions to them are never entirely predictable...

• Andrew Garfield - After the Hunt
• Damson Idris - F1
• Sean Bean - Anemone
• Stephen Graham - Deliver Me From Nowhere
• Tom Hiddleston - the Life of Chuck

Other Supporting Performances...

• Akira Emoto & Takehiro Hira- Rental Family
• Ben Foster - Christy
• Bradley Cooper - Is This Thing On? (Searchlight)
• Fisher Stevens - Song Sung Blue
• Albert Brooks & Jack Lowden & Woody Harrelson - Ella McKay (20th Century)
• Keanu Reeves - Good FOrtune HCA (Comedy) Nominee, 
• Jeffrey Wright - Highest 2 Lowest
• Matt Smith - Caught Stealing