The 2009 Oscar Race is Behind Us
WINNER: Mo'Nique, Precious
She steamrolled her way through award season with this astonishing performance (possibly the decade's best in this category). She's one of very few stand up comics to win Hollywood's top prize (Robin Williams is another. He nabbed Best Supporting Actor for the 1997 film year in Good Will Hunting)
READER'S PREFERENCE POLL: Mo'Nique, Precious
NATHANIEL'S VOTE: Mo'Nique, Precious (Vera Farmiga also made my shortlist)
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Penélope Cruz
"Carla" NINE 35 years old 47 films 3 noms / 1 win |
Vera Farmiga
"Alex Goran" UP IN THE AIR 36 years old 23 films 1st nomination! |
Maggie Gyllenhaal
"Jean Craddock" CRAZY HEART 32 years old 26 films 1st nomination! |
Anna Kendrick
"Natalie Keener" UP IN THE AIR 24 years old 7 films 1st nomination! |
Mo'Nique
"Mary Jones" PRECIOUS 42 years old 14 films 1st nom & win! |
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Other Awards none |
Other Awards none More On... |
Other Awards none More On... |
Other Awards NBR and 3 minor critics More On... |
Other Awards |
| How'd They Get Nominated? | ||||
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29% Year-long assumption that she would be in = traction
26% Role: Long-suffering spouse/ gf 23% Performance: sexy, sad, funny 14% "A Call From the Vatican" hotness never hurts [this rule applies to actresses only] 6% So famous she can even get mainstream talk shows to push... 2% Broken Embraces |
38% Performance: Sexy, smart, funny
34% in Christmas hit, a well liked Best Pic 17% Role: 'Mystery woman' never an auto-matic Oscar gimme but does provide meat for hungry actresses 7% Vera's growing fanbase in at least two quandrants: (critics, industry) 3% George Clooney 1% The Departed |
40% Role: Long-suffering spouse/ gf
35% Jeff Bridges' instant "win" traction, late-breaking Crazy Heart love sure helped 11% It's about time! [See: Secretary, Happy Endings, Sherrybaby] 10% Performance: Teary, sympathetic 4% Weak competition: Moore (too little screen-time); Others (category problems) |
60% Role: Quite a comic foil alongside a well loved star. Some say any young actress would've won the nom'
15% Performance: She's got the comic gift 15% Timing: early precursor win (NBR), Picture heat and Christmas box office 3% They like 'em young here 1%Twilight mania will destroy us all |
70% Performance: Greatness. 'Mary's Confession' is only the dramatic cherry on top
12% Role: they love a Monster Mom and... 7% comics w/ depth 5% vanity-free work is an Oscar plus 4% Best Picture 3% "she won't campaign!" was press that helped rather than hurt (as intended). It's about the work, baby! |
| Should Win / Will Win | ||||
| Mo'Nique steamrolled through the precursor season because her performance is too titanic to be denied. If they only held Oscars once a decade for supporting actress, she'd still be a threat for the win. But here's a thought: Who would win if Precious hadn't existed? Tough call. Who do you think? I'm guessing an Up in the Air girl but I'm betting it woulda been pretty volatile in terms of "win" traction, with Kendrick losing early steam and giving "time to honor a whole career" a window in. Maybe someone who wasn't even nominated with Mo'Nique in the mix... Julianne Moore? |
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| Who Got Robbed? | ||||
| Depends on how you look at it. The biggest casuality of category fraud was Marion Cotillard (Nine) who lost all traction once campaigned as lead. The biggest casualities of internal competition were the Basterd girls (Diane Kruger & Melanie Laurent) who were passed over despite the overall love of the film...even from actors (see SAG win). The biggest casualty in terms of precursor expectations was Julianne Moore in A Single Man. But I also really missed seeing Rosamund Pike here for An Education, a performances that is the definition of 'supporting'. | ||||