The Film Experience

By Nathaniel R

Post SAG & Globe Nominations each year oscar's acting categories start feeling locked up. But here's something always worth remembering: Each year brings us 1 or 2 new additions to the "nominated for SAG & Globe but still missed Oscar" close-but-no-cigar club. This year in particular seems unlikely to have as much exact 5/5 correlation due to the double whammy of Oscar's acting branch voting a little later than usual (they don't get ballots until January 5th) and the precursors voting a smidge earlier than usual. The next two weeks are crucial; no one who is remotely close to a nomination should give up just yet.

ACTRESS
Portman has been winning lots of critics awards but, strangely, her film (just as strong or even stronger than her eery performance) isn't doing as well. She's not exactly locked for a second win but she's definitely giving Emma Stone a fright and probably preventing Amy Adams or Annette Bening from dreaming of their first very long-awaited wins. The nomination race is even tighter...

It's been seven women for five slots for months and each new precursor announcement keeps it that competitive. Streep and Adams, Oscar's favorite standbys, looked like they were in spots close-but-no-cigar for the longest time, but both are surging at the moment... which might be bad news for the far less celebrated likes of Negga, Bening, and Huppert. On the other hand the Loving campaign is still working hard, Bening's film is about to get its release boost, and Huppert will surely be working red carpets and is in no danger or losing her editorial appeal for media types in the 2016 wrap-up stretch. Our assumption: This stays competitive between all seven until the very last ballot is counted in mid January. If Oscar's voting procedures allowed for ties in nominations, this would probably a year where we saw an expanded category!

ACTOR
SAG nominations should theoretically assure us that Viggo Mortensen's got this but we've been worried for him all year because we're so besotted with the performance and because awards bodies (particularly critics groups -damn them!) are so obsessed with rewarding only October through December releases each year.

That SAG lineup might look set in stone now but as for us -- we still don't think Tom Hanks or Joel Edgerton are remotely out of the question come nomination morning. Andrew Garfield, weirdly, seems to have a tight hold on third place despite a star turn in Hacksaw Ridge, that swings rather dramatically between opposing poles of cringe-worthy and amazing.

SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Precursors have rather suddenly decided that Viola Davis and Michelle Williams shall be in locked-up battle for the win while Naomie Harris, Nicole Kidman, and Octavia Spencer will just be happy to be nominated. If you believe the precursor awards, this is the most settled of the four races.

But but but... there are still two weeks before voting begins which means there is still time for Janelle Monae or Lily Gladstone to continue to push for their own happy endings. And we can't forget Greta Gerwig who is at the exact juncture of her career (years of much loved feisty indie work behind her but still young and gorgeous and garnering ever more mainstream degrees of attention) in which many actors are suddenly noticed by Oscar. Plus she's fantastic in 20th Century Women and the only source of warmth in the otherwise (thrillingly) chilly Jackie.

SUPPORTING ACTOR
Another race that looks settled (Ali, Briges, Patel, Grant, Hedges). But this category seems ripe for an 11th hour shake up, doesn't it? Something doesn't feel quite locked up about it though given that Patel and Hedges are both really young for Oscar and Grant is in the kind of role that usually falls victim to gender biases, "dont worry honey!" long suffering spouse roles being far more golden for women then men.

But if someone surprises, who is it? Ben Foster could still theoretically benefit from Hell or High Water coattails (and his own long history of good work), Michael Shannon (an actor's actor) could theoretically be Nocturnal Animals' big awards play still despite that odd Golden Globe decision. And we should definitely continue to ponder why buzz never coalesced around able supporting men like Peter Sarsgaard in Jackie or Stephen Henderson in Fences or why everyone thought it was a good idea to ignore three super brilliant performances from earlier in the year (Tom Bennett, Love & Friendship, Ralph Fiennes, A Bigger Splash, and Alden Ehrenreich, Hail Caesar) that frankly run circles around many performances that are still Oscar buzzing. Or will Oscar voters like Silence (Liam Neeson? Issey Ogata?) way more than the current buzz or precursors suggest; they will, after all, have more time to process it.