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89th Oscars. Oscar Contenders of 2016 - For prediction, discussion, entertainment purposes only
CASEY AFFLECK WON THE OSCAR
THE NOMINEES WERE...
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Casey Affleck Wins Role |
Andrew Garfield Role |
Ryan Gosling Wins Role |
Viggo Mortensen Role |
Denzel Washington Wins Role |
| How'd they get nominated? | ||||
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50% Performance. Critics and audiences went wild for it. His hollowed out grief is something else. |
50% The sympathetic Role. Oscar loves biopics, and men playing classically heroic true stories 22% Big earnest performance - a little , shall we say, 'purple' for my taste but some people really respond 10% Relief that he's out of Spider-Man dungeon 9% Precursors lack of imagination when looking at the competition 7% Silence 2% Sorry about The Social Network |
39% The movie. People love it and the actors are #1 reason why 20% Chemistry w/ Emma 13% "City of Stars" is such an earworm 10% The performance even if he makes it look too easy 7% Chance to honor the 21st century version of an old school leading man 6% Precursors 5% Surprise skills: Such good lines when he dances and such capable piano skills! |
70% Role AND Performance. Viggo has always been an "off-Hollywood" lead so this stubborn idiosyncratic non comformist is a great fusion of role and actor, allowing you to engage with both 20% Precursors + SAG ensemble surprise 7% Arthouse hit. That release date sure helped the movie stand apart. People had already fallen for it before campaigns 5% That loud funeral suit -2% Jill Stein support |
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| What clip should they play on Oscar night? | ||||
| Identifying his brother's body | Being interrogated about his bruises. Not naming names | Getting fired. | "it's just a penis" (I mean they can crop it obviously) | The entire 2 hours is his Oscar clip so... |
| Who will win? | ||||
| Casey Affleck has been buried in an avalanche of trophies and that will likely continue on Oscar night. Denzel Washington made some late voting inroads and could upset on Oscar night but my guess is Casey's long headstart will pay off... if only just barely. And mostly because Denzel has already won twice. | ||||
| Who was left out? | ||||
| This was the list for most of precursor season and is nearly my list, too, though there were people pulling for Tom Hanks (Sully) and Joel Edgerton (Loving), Michael Keaton (The Founder), Ryan Reynolds (Deadpool) and Colin Farrell (The Lobster). | ||||