Index | Pic | Dir | Actress | Actor | Supp Actress | Supp Actor | Foreign |Screenplays | Visual | Aural |Animation
89th Oscars. Oscar Contenders of 2016 - For prediction, discussion, entertainment purposes only
MAHERSHALA ALI WON THE PRIZE
The Nominees Were...
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Mahershala Ali Wins Role |
Jeff Bridges Wins Role |
Lucas Hedges Wins Role |
Dev Patel Wins Role |
Michael Shannon NOCTURNAL ANIMALS Role |
| HOW'D THEY GET NOMINATED? | ||||
| 50% Film + campaign Moonlight is deeply loved. And like Octavia in Hidden Figures he became the vessel with which to show that love. 20% Performance. Smart minimalist counterpoint to Harris's maximalism 20% His growing respect in Hollywood and having a great year. See also: Hidden Figures, Luke Cage 10% Two interesting additional boosts. Gets the film's title scene and thanks to Trevante Rhodes mimicry, his soul lingers despite an early departure from the film |
45% Performance and Star. He's Jeff Bridges. Doing his best Bridgesian thing... but with nuance and flair 25% Role. Classic cop role. Plus he's the morally outraged soul of a movie meant to outrage in its economic trigger story 15% The movie's Best Picture heat and devout fanbase 10% Precursors singled him out when they could have gone with Foster 5% That conversation with the T Bone waitress |
30% Role + Performance. In such a heavy film, he's the film's least troubled soul. And the casual humor and boy next door realism the talent young actor brings to it goes a long way. 30% Critical support for film and its actors 30% Precursors. Lack of settling on any of his competitors despite him being young for Oscar 10% Chemistry with Casey |
25% The role. It's moving and sympathetic. 20% A vote for Dev is a vote for Sunny Pawar... at least emotionally if nonsensically 19% Precursors and campaign And it always helps to have a huge leading role in the supporting categories 18% Performance: his best yet 10% Whoa, Dev got hot! 6% Lion's international popularity 2% Residual Slumdog obsessions |
30% Nocturnal Animals has devout fans and even its many haters think Michael Shannon is good in it (*raises hand*) 30% Performance & Role. He's an actor's actor and he always delivers, jazzing up even stock roles 25% Curiously, Aaron Taylor Johnson's BAFTA/Globe heat probably helped in a strange way reminding people "sure but... Michael Shannon is better!" 5% Sorry about 99 Homes |
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WHAT CLIP SHOULD THEY PLAY? |
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| Telling stories of his childhood to 'Lil' | Anything with his great scene partner Gil Birmingham | "strictly basement business" | Smelling the jalebis | A coughing fit? I don't know |
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WHO WILL WIN? |
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| I WAS WRONG WITH THIS RISK -- I'm going out on a limb and say that Dev Patel upsets the frontrunner Mahershala Ali. Ali lost both the Globe and the BAFTA suggesting vulnerability. Plus Lion was surging during voting and its a lead role. Leading roles always help in supporting categories. | ||||
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WHO WAS LEFT OUT? |
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| Hugh Grant, who campaigned supporting despite an unquestionably lead role in Florence Foster Jenkins, was a last minute shut out. Aaron Taylor-Johnson (Nocturnal Animals) became the first Globe winner in this category not to be Oscar nominated since the 1970s. Me I was partial to Trevante Rhodes (Moonlight) and Ralph Fiennes (A Bigger Splash) among others | ||||