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90th Oscars. Oscar Contenders of 2017 - For prediction, discussion, entertainment purposes only
AND THE NOMINEES ARE...
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Timothée Chalamet Role: Elio, a 17 year old young man in Italy falls for his father's summer research assistant Previous wins: Gotham (Bkthu), NBR (Bkthu) , NY , LA |
Daniel Day-Lewis PHANTOM THREAD Role: A fussy egomaniacl fashion designer is thrown off his game by a new muse. Previous wins: Toronto |
Daniel Kaluuya Role: A young man meets his white girlfriend's parents. But something is very wrong in their home and town. But what...? Previous wins: Boston |
★ Gary Oldman Role: Winston Churchill becomes Prime Minister during World War II Previous wins: Critics Choice, SAG, Globe |
Denzel Washington Role: an idealistic lawyer struggles with his new firm Previous wins: -- |
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TRIVIA ALERT
Denzel Washington is now the fifth most nominated male actor (tied with total legends Pacino, Brando, Lemmon, and O'Toole) and behind only Paul Newman, Spencer Tracy, Laurence Olivier, and Jack Nicholson. That's quite remarkably company to keep! Well done, Denzel. Daniel Day-Lewis has said that he's retiring so this might be a "nominated for your last film" situation (we'll have to do research on how many of those their have been, but he's said that before. We'll see. Timothée Chalamet and Daniel Kaluuya are both among the 20 youngest ever nominated in this category so this would be a really young skewing shortlist but for the fact that no men in their 30s and 40s were nominated (which is a more usual age range than three men right around 60). On a related note: This is only the third time in oscar history that two men under 30 have been nominated together (the other times were 1953: Marlon Brando and Richard Burton and 1989: Kenneth Branagh and Tom Cruise)
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| HOW'D THEY GET NOMINATED? | ||||
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| 54% Performance 15% Role. Oscar likes straight actors playing gay 13% His plus one was Armie Hammer. Adorable twosome on campaign trail 11% Early critics prizes to get precursor/buzz rolling 7% Best Picture heat 3% Desire for new stars . Occassionally Oscar likes to "discover" new stars rather than wait 1% Lady Bird |
60% He's Daniel Day Lewis. And he's retiring. Last chance to honor him! (or so he threatens) 15% Role. Oscar likes egotistical artists onscreen 12% Performance 8% Rapturous reviews + surprise Best Picture heat 3% Precursor support 2% Lesley Manville and Vicky Krieps |
49% Best Picture Heat + Zeitgeist Smash 21% Performance. Particularly that instantly iconic hypnosis scene. 19% Lockstep precursor support to legitimize "horror film performance" (though it really shouldn't be so hard to honor!) 7% Perfect support cast 3% Role (sympathetic) 1% Desire for new leading men in Hollywood |
40% He's Overdue Gary Oldman! 25% Role. Oscar loves historical figures. Plus all that oration! 12% Big Performance. "Gimme an Oscar!" 10% Steamroll precursors 9% Amazing makeup team transforming him 3% Best Picture heat and Oscar's anglophilia 1% Kristin Scott Thomas's affection rubs off on us |
50% He's Denzel Washington. One of Oscar's all time top ten favorite men. 25% Performance / Role. It's a doozy with lots of tics and issues to play and Denzel always delivers. 20% Precursor support 5% Last minute crash and burn for James Franco's campaign and no traction for the others |
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WHO WAS LEFT OUT? Other well reviewed choices this year Oscar didnt go for: Jamie Bell (Film Stars - BAFTA nominee), Hugh Jackman (Logan), Robert Pattinson (Good Time), and Harris Dickinson (Beach Rats) |
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| WHO WILL WIN? Oldman seems to have this locked up with the typical "overdue" and "Great Man from History" Oscar plays, despite Timothée Chalamet's revelatory work. |
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