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86th Oscars. The Oscar Contenders of 2013
For prediction, discussion and entertainment purposes. discuss on the blog

WINNER: 12 YEARS A SLAVE - COMPLETE OSCAR COVERAGE HERE

will win: 12 YEARS A SLAVE
should win: 12 YEARS A SLAVE
but watch out for: GRAVITY which could easily rise for a different kind of historic win 

Readers Rank (Your Votes): 12 YEARS A SLAVE takes the gold among Oscar nominees with 42% of the votes with GRAVITY the silver medalist with a fourth of voters rallying for 25%.  HER takes your bronze medal with 11%. The rest are just happy to be nominated:Wolf of Wall Street 7%, American Hustle 6%, Nebraska 2%, Dallas Buyers Club 1%, Philomena 1%, and Captain Phillips 0% 

 

Click on the titles for articles referencing the film...

THE BEST PICTURE NOMINEES ARE...

AMERICAN HUSTLE
David O. Russell
(Columbia)
Dec 13th

Box Office: $149+
Nathaniel's Top Ten
B.O. Rank for Year: #18
Nom Count: 10  

wins: SAGNew York, Globe (comedy)  
noms: BFCA, PGA, BAFTA

12 YEARS A SLAVE
Steve McQueen
(Fox Searchlight)
Oct 18th

Box Office: $55+
Nathaniel's Top Ten
B.O. Rank for Year: #70
Nom Count: 9 

wins: PGABoston
Globe (drama) + many critics group
noms: SAG, Gotham, Spirit. BFCABAFTA

GRAVITY
Alfonso Cuarón
(Warner Bros / Universal)
Oct 4th

Box Office: $272+
B.O. Rank for Year: #6
Nom Count: 10 

wins: PGALos Angeles + a couple of others
noms: Globe, BFCABAFTA

CAPTAIN PHILLIPS
Paul Greengrass
(Columbia)
Oct 11th

Box Office: $106+
B.O. Rank for Year: #32
Nom Count: 6

wins: --
noms: Globe, BFCA, PGA, BAFTA

NEBRASKA
Alexander Payne
(Paramount)
Nov 15th

Box Office: $17+
Nathaniel's Top Ten
B.O. Rank for Year: #121
Nom Count: 6 

wins: --
noms: Globe, Spirit, BFCA, PGA

 

Can it win?
Great marketing and high energy film. The cast is on fire and the director continues his hot streak.

But...
Some resent its shambling plot and big performances 

More...



Can It Win?
Yes. It's "Important" and artful, the timing seems right (i.e. long delayed)

But...
Challenging cinema always earns more admirers than lovers.

More...

 

Can it Win?
Yes. Grand Spectacles or 'event pictures' have won... and they love an acclaimed hit

But...
No sci-fi film has ever won

More...

 

Can it Win?

Oscar loves true stories and the film held on though flashier / newer titles threatened. Powerful endings go along way...

But...
#1 votes really?

More... 

 

 

Can it Win?
Payne's hot streak continues and father/son movies often tug at heartstrings

But...
This one's peculiar charms may be too "minor"

More...





 

PROBABLY IN DREAD 10TH PLACE

BLUE JASMINE
Nathaniel's Top Ten
noms: PGA

UNDERPERFORMED FROM EXPECTATIONS

SAVING MR BANKS
noms: PGA
INSIDE LLEWYN
wins: Gotham,NSFC
noms: GlobeSpiritBFCA
ALL IS LOST
noms: Spirit
AUGUST: OC
noms: SAG,

COMPLETE SHUT OUTS OF TITLES THAT HAD SOME PRECURSOR SUCCESS:

THE BUTLER
noms: SAG,

RUSH
noms: Globe, Bafta *British*

 

WOLF OF WALL STREET
Martin Scorsese
(Paramount)
Christmas

Box Office: $116+
B.O. Rank for Year: #29
Nom Count: 5

wins: --
noms: Globe, BFCA, PGA

DALLAS BUYERS CLUB
Jean Marc Vallée
(Focus)
November 1st

Box Office: $26+
B.O. Rank for Year: #100
Nom Count:  6

wins: --
noms: SAG, PGA

PHILOMENA
Stephen Frears
(Weinstein Co)
Nov 22nd

Box Office: $36+
B.O. Rank for Year: #86
Nom Count: 4 

wins: --
noms: Globe, BFCA, BAFTA

HER
Spike Jonze
(Warner Bros)
Dec 18th

Box Office: $25+
B.O. Rank for Year: #102
Nom Count: 5 

wins: NBR, Los Angeles + a few critics groups
noms: Globe, BFCA, PGA

It's this year's Django -- an irreverent indulgent Christmas explosion from a revered master with with some critics loudly jerking off to it

More...

Serious topic and major appeal to actors helped this 80s AIDS drama win multiple nods. Remarkably it's headed for multiple wins, too

More...

The hit of the season for a certain demographic, with much Oscar demo crossover. But can it win any of its 4 nominations. Most likely is Adapted Screenplay

More...

Reviews are rapturous and Jonze has ardent fans. But it's appeal skews young. It's best shot for a win is in Original Screenplay

More...