Anthony Hopkins' shocking win shouldn't have shocked anyone.
Wednesday, April 28, 2021 at 10:12PM by Baby Clyde
Thank you all very much. I really did not expect this.
I watched the last 20 minutes of the 93rd Academy Awards with a sense of impending doom. The disastrous decision to cynically rearrange the final awards in the hope of ending the night on a contrived ‘high’ immediately struck me as problematic. Whilst back in the day Best Picture wasn’t always given out last, it’s been that way for nearly 50 years and changing the order this year was clearly done for one and only one reason. The emotional finale meant to honor Chadwick Boseman with a posthumous award was something the hapless producers couldn’t resist, and it infamously backfired. A slow moving, gold plated car crash ensued as Sir Anthony Hopkins was declared the winner. With no back up plan, no Zoom speeches allowed and no host to close the show the evening ground to an unceremonious halt. If only they’d asked me, the day could have been saved.
I’m not a great Oscar predictor. Every year I seem to get 17 or 18 right. Usually tripped up by the Shorts, even if I’ve watched them all --no, especially if I’ve watched them all! But this year I did manage to successfully predict both Lead acting races, despite them both supposedly being "shocks". Best Actor was less clear, yes, but I put Hopkins in the #1 spot back in September and never moved him. I’ve been Oscar watching a VERY long time (When I started Glenn Close only had Supporting noms) and sometimes you just get a feeling about a particular race. For example, I never once thought Stallone was winning back in 2015 and I’m still puzzled when people insist Meryl’s third was a surprise as it was inevitable. I felt exactly that way this year and as the season went on (and on and on) there was plenty of evidence, I present six pieces, pointing in that direction...
1. The Nominations
Something was clearly up on nomination morning when The Father overperformed nabbing 6 in total including the all-important Best Picture as well and lower profile but very telling noms in Editing and Production Design. By contrast Ma Rainey slightly underperformed with 5 nominations which didn’t include Picture or a much expected Adapted Screenplay nod. The warning signs were there.
2. Academy Voters Are Not A Sentimental As People Think
Just ask Glenn Close or Diane Warren (or poor Peter O’Toole who lost for the 8th time 42 years after his first nomination). As for posthumous awards there have only been 2 such acting wins in Oscar history. James Dean lost twice. The two winners (Peter Finch (Network – 1976) and Heath Ledger (The Dark Knight – 2008) gave entirely iconic performances and would have won under most circumstances. Voters didn’t see fit to rewards Hollywood royalty Spencer Tracy (Who hadn’t won in 30 years) or acting legend Sir Ralph Richardson whose career had spanned over 60 years when they were nominated posthumously. It always seemed slightly unlikely that this was the year to buck the trend. Which brings me to the bit you’re not going to like…
3. Chadwick Boseman Was Not That Famous Outside of America
The Academy’s long overdue drive to diversify its membership has had an obvious impact on the awards over the last few years. With thousands of new voters from all over the world the awards have a far more international perspective; that also means a far less U.S. centric one. This may have had an effect on the Best Actor outcome. Since his tragic, untimely death I've heard a lot (here in the UK) about the legacy Boseman left behind and the iconic performances he’d given but I don’t think that really resonated across the ocean. Boseman made his name playing legendary American heroes Jackie Robinson (42 - 2013), James Brown (Get On Up – 2014) and Thurgood Marshall (Marshall – 2017) in a trio of biopics that barely registered internationally. They made less than $4m combined outside of the US. His worldwide breakthrough came as the title character in Marvel’s mega hit Black Panther, but I’d be surprised if most international voters had seen him in anything else before 2020. The choices he made and performances he gave post Panther clearly show a hugely talented actor with an illustrious career ahead of him, but a posthumous win also suggests something of a career award, and I think a sizeable contingent of voters, who only really knew him as a comic book character, didn’t see the necessity in this, especially when his main competition was an acting titan and household name who last won nearly 30 years ago.
4. Timing
Sony Pictures Classics timed their campaign to perfection. Sometimes when a nominee has been the favourite all season long and the win seems like a foregone conclusion, by the time voters have their say they are ready to consider other options. In this case The Father made a splash at Sundance back in January 2020 but then laid low for almost an entire year which proved to be a canny move. With Hopkins missing in action the Boseman narrative took hold, but word of mouth was strong on The Father and its unavailability made people even more eager to see it. Whilst this was extremely frustrating for film lovers it was clearly seen by the right people (aka in this case awards voters). Momentum began to build. I managed to track a copy down in January and at once knew that as soon as Hopkins’ performance was more widely seen the race would change. The slow roll out meant that voters were seeing the film at exactly the right time. It garnered 6 BAFTA noms to go along with its 6 Oscar nominations and Hopkins triumph at the most predictive of awards shows (11 Best Actor matchups in a row) sealed the deal. Boseman’s loss to Ahmed at the Indie Spirits was also a warning that went unheeded. Whilst The Father’s visibility was on the rise Ma Rainey’s was waning. At one point it was shunted off into Netflix’s Hidden Gems section (at least here in the UK).
Whilst I’m sure the voting bodies have .001 % overlap it was interesting to see The Film Experience’s own Oscar preference poll in the days leading up to the big night. Ahmed won and Boseman came in 3rd. in 3rd. A Twitter poll by the And The Runner-Up Is podcast which also garnered hundreds of votes also had Boseman in 3rd behind Ahmed and winner Hopkins. These are movie fan polls and aren't representative of the Academy at all but they certainly suggest that the race wasnt over and people really loved the work of both Hopkins and Ahmed.
5. Subject Matter Matters
And in this case The Father’s devastating portrayal of a parent’s descent into dementia will undoubtedly have hit home with voters. By definition, The Academy is always going to be made up of an older demographic and many of them will have related to this subject in a way that they didn’t with the other films. It’s a really devastating depiction and anyone who has encountered a relative or loved one going through something similar can’t help but be affected by it. This is especially true when the performance at its centre is such a masterclass which bring us to the last and most important point...
6. He Deserved It
Before I go any further it needs to be said that Chadwick Boseman gives a sensational performance in Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom. There is no doubt that had he won it would have been entirely warranted. In fact, 2020’s Best Actor crop was one of the strongest in years. There were four entirely worthy nominees (And Gary Oldman) any of whom would have made an outstanding winner. I’m pretty certain that Riz Ahmed wasn’t far behind our assumed top two. Obviously, this kind of thing is entirely subjective, and we will all have our personal favourites but whoever you think gave the best performance it’s impossible to argue that Hopkins win is undeserved. He may not be your personal choice but there is no doubt it’s a remarkable piece of work.
click on the photo to hear Anthony accept his Oscar at home.
With my strong suspicion that he might pull it off I was kind of dreading a Hopkins victory because of the inevitable Twitterstorm and stream of bad takes from people who know next to nothing about how any of this works. I’m 100% certain that 99% of those up in arms about it haven’t seen both performances. The backlash didn’t turn out to be half as bad as I’d expected mostly because Sir Anthony Hopkins is universally admired, and the performance is stunning. Maybe his best ever. One of the all-time great wins in my opinion. It’s unfortunate that Soderbergh and Co’s cheap shot production decision put such a damper on the evening for the late great Boseman’s family and supporters as well as putting the 83 year old living legend Hopkins in such an awkward position. Hopefully, next year things go back to normal which will include me making far less successful predictions.
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Anthony Hopkins, BAFTA, Best Actor, Oscars (20), The Father
Reader Comments (66)
"if you are Black and a lead, we will fraud you in supporting"
You do realize all the white pr working for Viola were pushing her to be nominated as lead for Fences, it's her own decision to run for supporting and secure her a win. And it's also black director's decesion to run Daniel as supporting to make way for Chadwick. When are you going to stop playing cards? Why don't you blame Viola and Daniel?
Eternal LOL at people saying Viola would have won over Emma Stone.
@Enric Um.... No.
Whitaker was on screen 34.63% of the time in LKoS, making him the actor with the LEAST percentage of time on camera to win Best Actor. I can't find MacAvoy's percentage, but anyone who's seen that film knows the latter was the main character and had the lion's share of time on screen.
percentage of time can suck my dick.
Uhhhhh...not even close, @MT. Hopkins himself won for ~20 percent screentime. And he’s not the only one lower.
Baby Clyde's article is 100% on point. I'm still annoyed with myself for voting Boseman in the Oscar pool due to popular sentiment, ignoring my sense that Hopkins would ultimately take it. There really was a sensational line up this year in both the lead Actor and Actress categories. I only wish Mads Mikkelson had been nominated over Gary Oldman.
@Paul interesting thoughf. I remembered the comments of this year's Cesar Awards. Terrible. Practically no one was saved from being called as posseur, caviar socialist or even hypocrite. Even the most die hard opposition of the current government was against that show and called the speeches as phony and just a tool for personal gratification while living in their own bubbles.
And those comments are becoming more common with the Oscars.
Nice writeup, Baby Clyde!
I wasn't shocked, even though I predicted Boseman would pull out the win. I knew Hopkins had been gaining ground, and I thought he deserved to win, but I feared the inevitable backlash. I'm glad it hasn't been as bad as it could have been.
For those who think Boseman's loss was somehow disrespectful to him, his own family, I think would disagree: Chadwick Boseman’s Family Speaks Out on Oscars Loss: This Was Not a Snub
I also don't buy that this is about the Academy not being able to recognize black lead performances. Ma Rainey, for a number of reasons, was not the ideal vehicle for either Boseman or Davis, especially given the strength of the competition.
So the people complaining that the Academy is racist or only picks white actors in leading categories... are essentially saying people should win based on the color of their skin? Your argument is not about the performance being better, but that Chadwick or Viola should've won bc they're black... isn't that exactly what you're blaming the Academy for?
I think what's beautiful is that the Academy chose who they chose (very beautiful performances in beautiful films), and that we did have so much diversity in the nominations to the point where there's a much more even playing field, so in the future there will be no need to worry about someone winning for representation in a category bc it will be normal for people of all backgrounds to win. Progress doesn't happen overnight.
Plus, it's just shiny trophies given to rich celebrities. It's not real life. We should consume this stuff for fun and not take awards or the circus of Hollywood so seriously. It's all phony anyhow (said with love).
Hopkins is a great actor, star and very classy gentleman.
About the show itself, I feel that they read the tea leaves of about six weeks ago and figured that Boseman had to win and what a fitting ending. They should have paid more attention and switched things around when it appeared there was even a chance that Boseman could lose. If they had put Best Actor before the In Memorium they could have even gone with Plan B and beefed up the spot for Boseman with a speech or something.
The bottom line is that you should never fiddle with Best Picture as the final award in my opinion. Supporting Actress and Director really were historic and would have been something to talk about rather than the needle scratch of an ending.
@Teppo2 You're right. I misread my sources. Whitaker had the least % of screen time of the crop that year. Still, whatever the guy who wants his dick sucked thinks, Whitaker supported McAvoy in LKoS. All the drama-queen posturing in the world ("suck my dick!" "for the love of god!") isn't going to change that.
Dave -- TOTALLY. also, as i stated in my piece, ending with a tribute to Chadwick would have been such a bummer because it's so melancholy. By all means bring on the tributes (this was a perfect year to make more of the in memoriam, for example, and do a big Chadwick thing there) but as the final thing before credits roll? Very strange choice even if it had happened. You want awards shows to go out with a big applause celebratory bang, not collective sadness. I just dont understand it from even a producers standpoint even if he had won.
Lynn -- i dont buy that argument either. Viola chose to run in supporting for Fences. Daniel Kaluuya chose to run supporting for Judas. I think both of those choices were terrible and untruthful (just as they are with all white actors who do it and it's increasingly the norm) and aimed at winning them Oscars which did happen. But to blame the Oscars for it when the PR teams and the stars themselves wanted it that way is misdiagnosing the problem entirely. That said I wish the Oscars would intervene here and make rules to cut out the excessive gamesmanship... then we could really see how they feel when people are nominated in the correct categories (my suspicion is that had Kaluuya campaigned Lead he would have bumped Yeun from the lineup but lost the Oscar).
It's all too easy to win Oscars as a leading man or leading lady if you're up against genuine supporting roles.
Thanks guys. Kinda rushed this out so am happy it's gone down so well.
To cover a few of the questions/comments above.
I didn't write about 'Oscars So White' because I think it's extremely disrespectful to Anthony Hopkins to subscribe his win to the colour of his skin and also think it's a hugely overplayed and simplistic narrative that disregards all the nuances of awards season and is mostly pushed by people who know little to nothing about how the whole thing works.
As for Denzel's lack of BAFTA noms this ridiculous 'fact' really bugs me. The majority of the films for which he was Oscar nominated were released in the UK well after the nomination window. I suspect so the studios could include 'Oscar Nominated' in the promotion. In order for him to be recognised at the BAFTA's they would have had to remember films that had been released in March or April of the previous year. There are others for which he was lucky to get Oscar nommed that were never going to gain any traction elsewhere (Did anyone really expect Roman J. Israel Esq to be a international awards magnet). The only 1 of his films for which you could conceivably say he's been snubbed for is Fences. Denzel Washington is a great actor and an international star but not really held in such high regard in the UK as he is in the US (Sound familiar). Here he would be known far more for his hit action films and thrillers than his dramatic work. Sidney Poitier got 6 BAFTA noms by the way.
Lastly i won't be writing a piece about McDormand cos there isn't much to write. In a tight 4 race you go with the one in the Best Picture winner. That's all there is to it. If it had been down to 2 contenders I think she would have lost but with a vote that close the strongest film prevails.
You give some interesting points, it had never occurred to me that the international vote could play a factor (I think that block also helped Frances to win her third Oscar). The only thing I will never understand is why in the US they treat Boseman as if his career was Denzel Washington's career when most Americans also knew him from the Black Panter.
No mention of On Golden Pond at all? Both his and Frances' win recall the awards of that one. Academy still loves awarding old people, both wins were just as safe as On Golden Pond.