Calling the Splits

Serious Film's Michael C. here to ask an inconvenient question. As predictions are being finalized around the web it becomes clear that a large bloc, if not a majority, of pundits are predicting a picture/director split with The King’s Speech taking picture but David Fincher claiming the director trophy. 

No doubt there is some wishful thinking at play by those still stinging from The Social Network’s flame out at the guilds awards. “Okay, maybe those Philistine voters will deny Social Network the big prize but how could they bypass an established master like Fincher in favor of Tom What’s-His-Name?”

The King Speaks. (The king being Fincher. His movies do rule.

I don’t mean to throw cold water on a plausible scenario that I would much prefer to a Speech sweep, but the burning question is this: When has a picture/director split ever been predicted? The answer: No time I’m aware of.

Here are the 6 times in the last 30 years picture director split along with the expected winners going into the ceremony:

2005 - Crash/Ang Lee
Brokeback Mountain was widely favored to win both prizes. There was, to be fair, an inkling of a Crash win here and there, but the vast majority called it for Brokeback early on.

2002 - Chicago/Polanski
The conventional wisdom that the only thing preventing a Chicago sweep would be the urge to give Scorsese an overdue win for Gangs of New York. Instead we got a Polanski win predicted by exactly nobody.

2000 - Gladiator /Soderbergh
Pundits thought they saw a spilt coming this year as most predicted DGA winner Ang Lee to repeat at the Oscars but popular favorite Gladiator to take top honors. They were half right. Traffic’s Soderbergh blindsided Lee. 

1998 - Shakespeare in Love/ Spielberg
Do we need to go over this one again? Private Ryan was thought to be a lock for both prizes.

1989 – Driving Miss Daisy /Oliver Stone – The smart money was on Born on the Fourth of July to take Picture along with director. Miss Daisy pulled an upset.

1981 - Chariots of Fire/Beatty
If anyone was going to upset the epic Reds in the top category it was assumed to be box office hit On Golden Pond, not tiny, foreign Chariots of Fire.

And here are two more widely predicted splits that never happened:

2006 - Little Miss Sunshine or Babel /Scorsese
Many imagined that voters would be satisfied looking elsewhere for picture after finally giving Scorsese his due. Nope. They genuinely loved The Departed.

1995 - Apollo 13/Gibson
The prevailing mood was that DGA winner Apollo 13 would take picture and, since Howard missed a director nomination, the acting branch would carry Gibson to a directing trophy. Braveheart took them both.

Fincher supporters can take solace in the fact that splits appear to favor big name auteurs in the directing category, or that we're due for a split since they seem to occur about every five years. Other than that, history suggests either the most obvious of outcomes or a wild card that nobody sees coming.  

My knowledge of what was predicted gets hazy before the 80's. Is there some precedent for a Speech/Fincher split I'm missing? Let me know in the comments.

Polling You

Oscar Ballots are due extremely soon (today) at their final destination but YOU can still vote. The Oscar pages are fully updated and ready for the big night, save for your votes in the categories. We like to include a readers choice to go along with Nathaniel's votes (the film bitch awards) and the Oscars themselves. Some years they line up, some they don't. Vote! PIC, DIR, ACTOR, ACTRESS, SUPP ACTOR, SUPP ACTRESS. Polling ends Saturday. Enlists your friends and read all the silliness. Did you know that Mark Ruffalo has both the most fertile character and is the most fertile Supporting Actor with 3 kids? Did you know that Helena Bonham Carter (Supporting Actress) and Tim Burton are both Oscarless? Can you name two pairs of living director/actress lovematches that both have Oscars before reading them on the page? Did you know that Best Actress Michelle Williams helped launch a yoga for single moms program? For some reason, I can't picture Michelle doing yoga, there's something about her physical screen presence that's too compressed for stretching. And my imagination is usually so fierce with the actresses.

(Oscar madness will end soon and we'll pick back up some long awaited blog threads. Stay tuned.)

Supporting Actress (and Mothers & Sons)

It occurred to me when completing the Best Supporting Actress page -- now with "How'd they get nominated?" theorizing, Polls and Trivia -- that "The Wisdom of Crowds" might be in order for this category in terms of predictions. It's the only category that seems ripe for an upset, given both the nature of the category (the most frequently upsettable as it were) and the unfortunate turning of the tide against Melissa Leo. I say unfortunate because I think that Melissa Leo is absolute aces in The Fighter and far less deserving performances win Oscars every year! She'd be my personal winner in a year that didn't contain something as untoppable as Jacki Weaver's "Smurf" my first pencilled in candidate for Best of the Decade in 2020 when we pretend that the Oscars are only held once a decade.

So humor me by voting on this poll and explain yourself in the comments. Who IS going to win? Also make sure to vote on each of the categories for your "should win" on the Oscar pages

poll by twiigs.com

You know you want to.

It feels like a nailbiter as we just discussed on the podcast. I'm still leaning towards thinking that Leo is going to pull off the win, given that I think her competitors are probably too strong across the board to steal all the NOT LEO votes for themselves.

But while researching this category, I realized that if Bale and Leo both win for The Fighter, it'll be the first time since Holly Hunter & Anna Paquin in The Piano (1993) that actors playing immediate blood relatives have both won. But what of Mothers & Sons? It turns out there aren't very many of them that are ever nominated.

Ordinary People (1980) and My Left Foot (1989)

Past 50 Years of Mother & Son Oscar Combos - wins?
Melissa Leo and Christian Bale in The Fighter (2010) -we shall see
Julianne Moore and Ed Harris in The Hours (2002) -neither won
Toni Collette and Haley Joel Osment in The Sixth Sense (1999) - neither won
Kate Nelligan & Nick Nolte in The Prince of Tides (1991) - neither won
Brenda Ficker and Daniel Day-Lewis in My Left Foot (1989) -WINNERS!
Jessica Tandy and Dan Ackroyd in Driving Miss Daisy (1989) - only the mom
Mary Tyler Moore and Timothy Hutton in Ordinary People (1980) -only the son
Meryl Streep and Justin Henry in Kramer Vs. Kramer (1979) -only the mom
Gladys Cooper and Rex Harrison in My Fair Lady (1964) - only the son
Thelma Ritter and Burt Lancaster in The Bird Man of Alcatraz (1962) -neither won

I think I've accounted for all of them. Are you fond of these pairings? Do you think we'll have another (fictional) mother & son set on Sunday night?

p.s. the SUPPORTING ACTOR Page is also updated

Animation at the Oscars, an Infographic

There's so much information to parse out here about Oscar's history with the hand or computer drawn division of their industry. This was created by Border Stylo. Isn't it neat?

I wish the information was more complete (i.e nominations by film, too) but it's pretty cool as is. It's not surprising but definitely interesting that 66% of the nominations gathered by the animation genre are in the aural categories (Song, Score and the Sound categories)

For the record, to add to this chart the most nominated animated films are the following.

Belle. She has few equals in the canon.

6 nominations
BEAUTY & THE BEAST (1991) including Best Picture
(I think it's worth noting that even if you subtracted one of these nominations -- given that films can no longer get 3 song nominations by the rules, you'd still have to add it back in if there were animated feature prizes to be won in the 90s. Beauty & The Beast is still the champ, Oscar wise. It's the one that changed the way Oscar thought of Animated Features... with a little help from it's lead in The Little Mermaid of course.)
WALL•E (2008)
5 nominations
ALADDIN (1992)
RATATOUILLE (2007)
UP (2009) including Best Picture
TOY STORY 3 (2010) including Best Picture
4 nominations
THE LION KING (1994)
MONSTERS, INC (2001)
FINDING NEMO (2003)
THE INCREDIBLES (2004)

What'cha think about that?

About That Best Actress Oscar Curse...

I've noticed a raft of articles popping up about the infamous Best Actress Oscar curse which states that your marriage will fall apart if you win Best Actress.

Recent Oscar-Winning Divorcees

This is undoubtedly on the brain because of the whole Sandra Bullock Brouhaha last year (and because people have run out of things to talk about Oscar-wise?). ABC says scientists have proven it statistically and one of said scientists offers up this unscientific theory.

Winning an Oscar can be construed as a big jump in professional status that an actor or actress has in their world and in the eyes of the broader audience… The general social norm kind of requires a man to have higher professional and economic status over the wife. So whenever that social norm is violated, both husband and wife may feel discomfort.

We do still live in a patriarchal society so this is probably true. It would be especially true for men or women who buy into the patriarchy without having questioned its value system thoroughly (most people don't). This problem of separate status might just be acerbated by Hollywood itself which knows from hierarchies. Who's hot, who's not, etcetera. Star actors undoubtedly have egos.

But here's another happier detail they didn't think to look at. What of the women who win only after they shed their troubled relationships? Perhaps break-ups prompt creative renewal.

Jane Wyman won her Oscar for Johnny Belinda shortly just after dumping Ronald Reagan. Nicole Kidman won her first nomination (Moulin Rouge!) and then her first win (The Hours) back-to-back in the year that followed her high-profile split with Tom Cruise. That's just the two I can think of off the top of my head but I'd be willing to bet that there's more. Julia Roberts and Benjamin Bratt's break-up was already brewing before she won for Erin Brockovich. Julia's case could theoretically be part of the aforementioned curse or part of this bizarre blessing in disguise; lose a handsome man, get a naked gold one to replace him.

As for actresses who married or will marry their man after they've already achieved major star status (I'm thinking of Amy Adams actor man and Natalie Portman's acclaimed ballet star fiance in this year's Oscar race), I don't think they should worry too much. These men have undoubtedly already evolved or acclimated themselves to their "societal-norm" breaking coupledom.

Then you have women who crossover these categories, defying it. Emma Thompson's marriage to frequent collaborator Kenneth Branagh ended two years after her Oscar win but her relationship with Greg Wise (her Sense & Sensibility co-star) didn't suffer when she won her second Oscar.

His & Hers BAFTAs (Spring 1993); Emma's Oscars (March 1993 and March 1996)

And where does marriage-crazy two-time Oscar winner Elizabeth Taylor fit into all of this?

If you have the answers or just theories to these wedded bliss / wedded miss questions, have at it in the comments.