Virgin Nominees
Wednesday, January 25, 2012 at 8:00AM 
It took Gary Oldman *forever* to get an Oscar nomination. Do you think he'll return for a second?Five years ago I did a study of Oscar's acting categories and multiple vs. singular honors. I discovered that 64% of Oscar nominees never return for a second nomination.
That year I polled readers who voted Transamerica's Felicity Huffman, Good Night and Good Luck's David Straithairn, Crash's Matt Dillon and (OOPS) Junebug's Amy Adams least likely to return. Readers had the most confidence in return engagements for (OOPS) Cinderella Man's Paul Giamatti... but weird that he hasn't been back, right?, Syriana's Clooney, Capote's Phillip Seymour Hoffman and (OOPS) Hustle & Flow's Terrence Howard! So some of y'all got it pretty right in the polling and also way wrong which just goes to show you that you never know!
The Streeps and Winslets are a true rarity. Even major movie stars across the decades have had to settle for one. And sometimes people just get snubbed forever.
P.S. Have your say in the comments: why'd you vote the way you voted?
New Oscar Post - Snubs That Hurt
Reader Comments (65)
I voted John Hawkes. I know that for a character actor is is already great to be nominated once, but I just read several reviews praising his perfomance in "The Surrogate", and he also got praise for MMMM, so I think he will be nominated sometime again (and maybe even already next year).
I think Bale's intense personality will make people think that that one Oscar is enough of a reward...forever.
It's fun that we can't know anything for sure. J Lawrence might become an Anjelina-like action movie star and Chastain might start working for non-American directors for all we know.
But yeah, Chastain right now seems like she'll be one og those actors for whom we'll hear a lot of "I can't believe I'm nominated in the same category as her!"
Jessica Chastain....she just seems destined for a long rewarding career...I bet she will be back at the oscars very soon!
Christian Bale.....loved in Fighter....and transforms himself....loved American Psycho and thought he would have received a nomination
John Hawkes....just feel he would have been nominated this year if the love had stayed with MMMM
Hooray, I inspired an article! (Sort of.)
Chastain is the obvious pick, although I don't think she'll be back next year. I also picked Bale (I know he got an Oscar... but I feel like he'll head down a DDL career trajectory, and he's sure to land something along the lines of a Plainview performance which they just can't deny) and Hawkes (as Ivonne said, he already has buzz for next year (insane), but regardless I think now he's on their radar he'll always get mentioned and eventually land another one).
I almost picked James Franco, just because I imagine he'll eventually get tired of being so outré and make a film that hits every Oscar button there is. He just wants attention, bless him.
Jessica Chastain seems like a no-brainer to me. Her output last year shows that she's wise about picking her roles. She has already voided being an Oscar one-hit-wonder as far as her films are concerned. Compare this to, say, Jennifer Lawrence, who I could easily see follow in Kate Hudson's footsteps instead.
Christian Bale, because if his supposedly prickly demeanor didn't keep him away from a statue, it won't keep him away from future nominations either. Plus, Flowers of War proves that he's willing to experiment and try different stuff. He'll get a nod again someday.
Hailee Steinfeld is my last pick. Perhaps a bit of a gamble; she's still young and might decide that acting isn't what she wants to do all her life. Still, the years are on her side, and she has certainly shown talent. The Coens are fond of reusing actors they've worked with before, so maybe she'll pop up and become a new Frances McDormand with time.
Since I can't read, I voted for who I thought wouldn't return. Gah, sorry!
I think unless Oldman wins, we'll be seeing him nominated more in the future. Bale, Hawkes, and Ruffolo we'll most likely see again, although they always give such effortless performances, which tend to get overlooked.
I went with Chastain, Lawrence and Bale.
I think Melissa McCarthy will definitely be back, scooping up all those Kathy Bates-esque roles. Who would've ever thought she'd be back after Misery?
I voted with the majority so far - Chastain, Bale and Franco, but I almost pulled the trigger for Oldman. He's going to get a lot of goodwill for this nomination from the industry, and I believe he's a darkhorse for the win now that he's in. But even if he doesn't, this will open doors for meaty roles he hasn't seen land on his doorstep in some time, and then he'll be considered even more overdue than he is now, a la Colin Firth and Christopher Plummer.
Probably hawkes, though he may go for very small indie films that may end up overlooked and little seen.
Bale is brilliant, unconventional and a risk taker. Will Be back.
Oldman probably will as well. They have years of snubbing to Make up for.
Franco probably will. Bis ubiquity and persona will Be hard to ignore, and he is versatile and has charisma.
Chastain certainly will.
Ruffalo I'm not so sure! Very subtle, low key and under the radar.
I voted for:
-Bale because he's always ready to win or lose weight and the Academy loves that stuff.
-Ruffalo just thinking in the upcoming "The Normal Heart".
-Mara because if they loved her in Dragon Tatoo they might love her in anything.
I'm surprised with Jessica's heavy showing. I'm not that sure she'll stick around...
I voted John hawkes, melissa mccarthy, and rooney mara. I thought Chastain because of course she does good work but she cant crank out 6 movies every year. Shes gonna have to turn in a stunner of a performance in a good, memorable movie.
Can Franco be nominated again after that horrible Oscar hosting?? LOL
I am surprised I am the only one who picked Eisenberg. As a young actor who had been in the business for several years before Social Network, I can't imagine him not getting the opportunities to return. And he doesn't have the "I don't like him" factor that Bale and Franco arguably have.
But Franco will probably be back (popularity wise) in a few years, so he isn't a bad choice either.
1) Chastain because, as others have said... duh.
2) Jesse Eiseneberg, which I admit is kind of a marginal call given the arc of his career so far, but I picked him because he's young and well respected, and as long as he keeps picking challenging roles something will click with the Academy again eventually.
3) Mark Ruffallo, because the dude is like the sleeping giant of the acting world, awards wise. Well liked, handsome, talented - all he needs is for the right role to come along. Maybe, as mentioned by Peggy Sue, it'll be The Normal Heart (though I find the idea of Ryan Murphy guiding anyone to an Oscar nomination laughable, even considering the source material).
Bale, Chastain, and Oldman feel like the most likely (provided Oldman gets meaty enough parts going forward), but Hawkes is also a good possibility (that's another career I'm very excited about).
Jennifer Lawrence is a maybe, it just depends on what direction she decides to take her career, I feel a crossroads coming between indie fare and more populist entertainment, she just has the right look to unfortunately become prey to blander stuff.
I doubt we'll see much of the rest.
I agree with Jamie. I'm surprised so many people expect a return nomination for James Franco after he shat all over his hosting duties last year. There's a reason why Richard Gere was passed over for Chicago—his infamous denunciation of the Chinese government when he was an Oscar presenter. The Academy has a long memory.
Chastain, Oldman, Ruffalo.
Christian Bale just seems kind of obvious to me, especially in the way he tends to choose difficult roles.
Gary Oldman will be the new Christopher Plummer, recognized late in his career and reaping at least one more trip back to the Oscars.
Jessica Chastain, just because with the ridiculous number of projects she's in, odds are one of them will get Oscar's attention again, right?
I voted for:
Jessica Chastain: Every year there's an ingenue who is going to be "the next big thing." This year, I feel like the hype is justified. The chameleon nature of her performances, coupled with terrific timing and a sense of running her career as a marathon rather than a sprint all makes me confident she'll be back, perhaps several times.
James Franco: He's young, hot, and constantly making bold, artistic choices. While they won't always pay off, I'm confident at least 1-2 more will. He might just not make it acting-it may be in another category.
Christian Bale: Same sort of thing as Franco-he'll get in as a lead actor at some point, maybe a decade from now.
While I thoroughly don't believe the "no one knows anything" when it comes to Oscar that Awards Daily consistently recites, in this case I think it's apt. Kathy Bates and Marisa Tomei would have both seemed like "never gonna return" candidates, and clearly the concensus at the time was that Amy Adams wouldn't return, and the likes of Kathleen Turner and Ali McGraw at the heights of their careers ended up in the "one and done" category. It could very well be that Melissa McCarthy or Berenice Bejo becomes Oscar's new favorite star.
i must say i'm surprised jennifer lawrence scored so high - i feel like the whole hunger-games-mania we're about to enter into might ruin her credibility (at least in academy's eye...)
myself, i voted james franco, jessica chastain and christian bale
For the record, Oldman would have been my fourth choice-if he can pull a quick turnaround like Firth did and grab something super BAIT-y, he could win in 1-2 years time.
Jessica Chastain - how many films was she in this year? And no two of her performances were in any way alike. And she was solid in all of them. Mark my words: In a decade, she'll become the new Kate Winslet, doing consistently good work with a few nominations to show for it who has become "overdue" for an Oscar.
Christian Bale - Exactly the type of actor the Academy loves to award (prickly personality included). It might take a long time, but he will be back for something, especially if he keeps working with interesting directors.
Jennifer Lawrence - I almost went with Hailee Steinfeld or Gary Oldman, but figured Hailee might have had beginner's luck and Oldman will absolutely need a killer role in a big hit to get in the game again, now that he's in the nominee club. If Jennifer is as good in The Hunger Games as she looks from that (awesome) trailer, then she can be good in anything. All she'll need is the right project, and she's shown pretty good instincts on that front so far.
I voted for Lawrence, Chastain and Eisenberg. I think it's conceivable that Lawrence could get Oscar buzz for the Hunger Games - Gary Ross scored several nods for his first two movies (including a Best Picture nom for Seabiscuit) and it's a big meaty leading role.
1. Christian Bale (big star, famously devoted method actor)
2. Jessica Chastain (feels like a Streep/Winslet in the making)
3. Jennifer Lawrence (has a remarkable combination of commercial potential and acting skill)
I don't fancy Hailee Steinfeld's odds; the ones who get nominated that young rarely make a return engagement.
John Hawkes (next year), Jessica Chastain, Gary Oldman.
(Christian Bale in fourth place.)
Chastain because everybody is obscenely obsessed with her.
Eisenberg because he seems like the type to take roles catered to oscar's taste.
Bale because he's an incredibly talented actor. He's crap in a lot of movies, but when he gets a good role he's amazing.
If you asked a year ago, Franco would have been a shoo-in, but he eally hurt his chances after his hosting disaster, I wonder if the Academy would be ready to nominate him after he showed such disdain for the whole thing.
Chastain, Lawrence, and Hawkes (who's already getting talked up this Surrogate movie).
I think this is a one and done deal for Rooney Mara, but maybe that's just wishful thinking.
Christain Bale is not a good actor period. I'd rather Clooney beat Hepburn's record of 4 statuettes than see Bale earn a 2nd nomination.
Chastain, Ruffalo, and Hawkes -- real actors with a real shot.
No, he's a good actor exclamation point.
Bale's a strainer not a chameleon.
I am surprised by the Hailee love. Aside from Jodie Foster and Natalie Wood, have any other child actors ever gotten nominations as both a child and an adult?
And RJ, I tend to agree on Mara-she doesn't really have the personality of a celebrity, and she's decidedly not a character actor. I think she's a one-and-done.
I'm almost wishing I could have revoted - or that I could have picked at least 5 (could I have?)
I assume Bale will come back, a la Sean Penn (and if he can give another performance matching "Mickey" in The Fighter, I won't mind.) So I left him off because he seemed obvious. I sort of wish I'd gone with John Hawkes, who is doing excellent supporting work, and probably has more ahead of him - he's the sort of player who is invaluable to movies. (Says I.)
I voted Mara, because she's the right age (as we've said, Oscar likes the ladies young); Chastain for the same reasons as everyone else (will she stay "big" or is this year a one-off?).
Mark Ruffalo - that may be more of a "wishful thinking" vote for me, in that I've loved him in everything I've seen him in (even in 13 Going on 30 he's not phoning it in, even if the script gives him little to do); I think he should have several more noms by now. But I also voted for him because soon he'll be approaching the right age for AMPAS (as we know, Oscar likes his dudes more middle-aged), and eventually he's going to have one of those perfs that is both award-worthy and "wow, you're really overdue!" traction.
What I find fascinating about this is that Marion Cotillard seems such a slam-dunk multiple nominee for her recent run of excellent performances and she never catches on with Oscar.
I wonder if that's it, just that one nomination (and win)?
I voted Jessica Chastain (she'll be ubiquitous for a few more years, I guess, with two Malick movies and all), Christian Bale (people, he'll be back for sure) and finally James Franco.
You know he'll get another Oscar nomination someday. I feel he's like Nick Nolte or Nicolas Cage that way, ie, he'll excite critics and the Academy once in a while and get nominated again.
I was surprised that my picks were pretty much the same as everyone elses. (Now that's a nice feeling!) Chastain, Ruffalo, Franco, then Bale.
I agree with John T that Franco may show up in another category than acting. Too bad he wasn't any good at being an Oscar host, but even versatile people can't do everything. I think in the long run it will humanize him.
Ruffalo's nomination was long overdue, and marked him out as an always potential Oscar nominee, someone who can be considered each year.
And the unexpected benefit of this poll is that I won't feel bad when Chastain loses this year. If she wasn't the Supporting Actress of the year, what do you have to do to get that award? But yes, I'll be happier when she wins for a lead. She worked on this year's releases over a period of 3 years(?) getting jobs by word of mouth (between highly-regarded professionals) which is always the best way to further an actor's career. It means she's already surmounted the hurdle of getting a reputation in the business for the combo of easy to work with plus talented.
And as everyone has said, she's demonstrated versatility. Shakespeare (Coriolanus), underwritten lyrical (Tree), populist (Help), action (Debt), acting art house (Shelter), working with a cranky legend (Salome), and ?horror? (that other one).
Jessica Chastain: she demonstrated an incredible range in 2011 that shows off how much she has to give as an actress to any number of projects.
Jennifer Lawrence: she understands nuances. There's always life behind her eyes on film even when the screenplay doesn't give her much to work with. The right role will always make her shine.
John Hawkes: he's like Lawrence. Great understanding of how to layer a character to feel real onscreen. The right role will get him back into the discussion.
I voted for Oldman, Bale and Ruffalo. There are all consistently good, prolific, and will likely be in many good movies for year to come.
Jessica Chastain for sure.
James Franco too.
And I know Viola isn't a first-timer, but for some reason, I never even doubted her second nomination. I knew she'd be back at some point. She's such a stunning and dedicated actress. I could see her getting being the first black actress to get a third, especially if she doesn't win this time.
I voted Chastain, Spencer, and Ruffalo. I did it just prior to eating breakfast and so with a low blood sugar level, made the mistake of choosing Spencer. Not that I think she's untalented or underserving, but I forgot that Hollywood is hell for ladies of color and that she's basically a one and done deal.
Chastain because she's talented, has immense range, and is generating a lot of good will now and paving the way for future noms.
Ruffalo because he's handsome, talented, easy to work with, and quite well liked in the industry. Annette Bening couldn't stop raving about him while working on the Kids are Alright.
Personally, I wouldn't want to see Rooney Mara nominated again. She's talented, but she's also got an entitlement attitude - not surprising given that both sides of her family are insanely rich. I've read that her maternal and paternal sides of the family are billionaires. As such, unlike other actors that work hard, and toil away in obscurity hoping for the big break while scraping by and going hungry, she's waltzed in and been served up work and an AMPAS invite with barely any credits to her resume. If the acting career doesn't work out for her, she doesn't have to worry about back up plans/alternate career paths or whatnot. She's pretty, talented, and rich. And I think that the Actors branch of AMPAS, which is the largest one, is likely to remember that - that she really hasn't "paid her dues" and that she's rather prickly and not easily likeable as a person.
I voted for John Hawkes (exciting indie projects keep coming), James Franco, and Chastain.
How about the “almost got it” from this year, like Theron, Fassbender, Brooks, and Tilda? Which one of them will be back and finally got it?
[Rooney Mara is] decidedly not a character actor.
What was the role of Lisbeth if not a "character" performance? Certainly nothing like she normally is.
@ Denny - Michelle Williams is the new Kate Winslet rather than Jessica Chastain. I really have a feeling there won't be too much buzz about Chastain in the future; 2011 may have people fatigued on her. I actually see her going to TV in a few years and then gobbling up a bunch of Emmy's. Williams, on the other hand, is following Winslet's lead; she'll be nominated a few more times, and finally win for one of her lesser performances.
So I kinda forgot about Jessica Chastain and voted for Jennifer Lawrence, Christian Bale, and John Hawkes. John Hawkes feels like I cheated, because we already know he's excellent in The Surrogate, which just SCREAMS Oscar nomination. He'll be the first (and, depending on how Hunger Games is received and how the the new Terrence Malick and Kathryn Bigelow films are, Jennifer Lawrence and Jessica Chastain might join him).
I thought for a second about James Franco-- seems like he gets the right kind of roles, but I wonder if his name is sullied with the Academy forever.
Wow, Jamie ... Here we go again...
I voted:Chastain, Bale and Hawkes>>>!!
A) Just read the comments above and realized I repeated a lot. Sorry.
B) They're making a movie version of The Normal Heart?! NO NO NO NO NO. And with Ryan Murphy directing?!? UGGGGGGGGH. I'm really tired of Ryan Murphy and Adam Shankman stealing all the good stories from Broadway and messing them up. And now to do it with that play, which can be so over-the-top? What a disaster.
I can't believe we got this many comments in without anyone mentioning Jonah Hill being left off the list. Are we all pretending this didn't happen?
MIKE -- lol. This bit of comedy is totally unintentional. but read into it whatever you'd like.
I'm on the Chastain train and Ruffalo (if only because he looks so cute in a suit). An Jacki Weaver because, well, it's Australia day tomorrow and it would be unaustralian not to vote for Jacki for anything (no matter how unlikely!)
Where's Jonah Hill on this list? Isn't he a first time nominee?