SAG Predix: Will They Really Give "The Help" 3 Prizes?
Sunday, January 29, 2012 at 2:39PM 
Only two more awards shows to go before we reach Oscar night. One of them is tonight. SAG sometimes surprises (remember 2002 and 2003?) and sometimes goes total consensus. Let's take a stab at this... which is easier to do with statues with sharp corners. LIVE BLOGGING HAS BEGUN!
Best Actress
Nominees: Close, Davis, Williams, Streep, Swinton
Will Win: Viola Davis because the most voters have seen her film and because she's great in it.
Will Win: Meryl Streep because she's Meryl Streep and it's a biopic and actors are crazy about those and because it's a virtuosic impersonation.
Will Win: Michelle Williams because she's the new "Best of Her Generation" actress everyone is excited about and because it's a biopic and...
Okay. Yikes. I suspect it's a tight three woman race. I'd like to believe that Viola's box office and general narrative will differentiate her just barely enough. On the other hand actors rightfully worship Streep and she might win this with ease and she's definitely the most likely winner for voters who haven't seen all their screeners. I mean if I was voting blindly I'd always vote Streep (not that I'd vote blindly). On the other otherhand (we've grown a third arm) perhaps the vast voting body of the guild will have a heatwave for Michelle Williams as Marilyn Monroe.
Best Actress has the odd and slightly unpleasant distinction of being filled with performances that are mostly significantly better than the film housing them (though this is not to say that all of the films are terrible). Given that rather specific sandbox, I'd argue that Davis does the most successful job of working against her film's limitations. As technically great as Meryl Streep's work is, it just can't vault the hurdle of "why was this film even made other than to win Best Actress awards?" None of the other films, not even My Week With Marilyn leave quite the same "why does this exist?" aftertaste. But then again, films made solely to win awards no matter how shamelessly obvious about that they are, have never been exactly shunned by awards bodies so that might not matter at all. Plus after taste is hard to notice while you're still eating which is why some distributors wait till the last possible second for voters to see movies they want votes for.
Okay, okay: Streep.
Best Actor
Nominees: Bichir, Clooney, DiCaprio, Dujardin, Pitt
Will Win: George Clooney for his movie star charisma. He seems to be just sailing through this awards season with ease as if his performance towers over the competition. Strange.
Should Win: Brad Pitt for his movie star charisma and how it completely suits his character and his film and for the simple matter that he gave two incredible performances in the same year, one of which is this one right here. It's always a pity when career peaks happen and awards bodies are only vaguely paying attention, temporarily blinded by other flashy objects in the same room.
Best Supporting Actor
Nominees: Branagh, Hammer, Hill, Nolte, Plummer
Will / Should Win: Christopher Plummer. Like Clooney he has no competition for the win in his category. The main difference being that his performance easily reveals why that is.
Best Supporting Actress & Best Ensemble
Nominees: Bejo, Chastain, McCarthy, McTeer and Spencer
Nominees: The Artist, Bridesmaids, The Descendants, The Help, Midnight in Paris
Octavia Spencer and Melissa McCarthy are, like Brad & George, friends and competitors both. But more importantly they're also both in awesome female ensembles. Voters have shown in the past that they don't mind giving acting prizes AND the ensemble to the same film but won't they want to throw Bridesmaids something instead of possibly giving The Help three of their five prizes?
I'd love to predict a Bridesmaids win in ensemble and I don't think it's out of the realm of possibility especially if voters do the old "vote for the film you'd most like to have been in" (in which case this is Help vs. Bridesmaids vs. The Artist) but as SAG has settled into its [ahem] 'precursor duties' they've strayed further and further from thinking about ensemble and moved right into thinking about Oscar so a win for a movie that's not up for Best Picture might be beyond their imagination now (in which case this is The Help vs. Descendants vs. Midnight vs. The Artist)
Will Win: Melissa McCarthy (repeating the Emmy surprise?) and The Help... though maybe i have it in reverse and wouldn't that be fun.
Should Win: These categories are killers, so many good performances. But If I was voting I'd throw Ensemble to Bridesmaids and Supporting to... god, who knows. This is why I still haven't finalized my own awards.
Best Ensemble, Bridesmaids, Meryl Streep, The Help, precursor awards
Reader Comments (20)
I really hope you are right about Streep and Pitt ...
How come you don't see Close upsetting over Williams and Streep? If Viola is to lose I'd rather it was Close above and beyond anyone else.
Hi! I want to see SAG online! How Can I?
i think the best ensemble will be for THE ARTIST
Cláudio -- i have no idea if there is a live stream anywhere. sorry. SAG generally airs on TNT and TBS so i'd try to find if there are any live feeds showing those channels.
3rt -- there's just no heat behind her is why. You have to have more traction than that.
rick -- but i'm not predicting Pitt ?
This might work: http://tvpc.com/Channel.php?ChannelID=7449
Regarding the new banner addition: Was it deliberate that you kept Scarlett and Melanie from appearing together on the same screen? And will that mean the Joan-Fontaine-&-Oscar picture will have to wait a couple of weeks?
Hi Nicolas! Thank you so much!
Nathaniel, thanks too.
See you in live blog!
Ooooh FINALLY I watched the Iron Lady, just released in Italy.
Ok, the movie is not a masterpiece at all... especially at the beginning it's sooo slow... in fact I appreciated most its second part, from the Falklands war on...
I wouldn't say there is no reason for such a film to have been made... I think it actually exists to tell the story of a woman who in her way (that may be considered good or bad depending on one's political ideas) has changed history. As much as I have appreciated the effort, let me say they could have made better. I had much more expectations on it... Denis Tatcher ghost??? really??? Whose genial idea was it??? Now I understand why TIL was not even included in the top best picture nominees... ridiculous choices! Thanks God we have Meryl Streep... she carries the movie on her shoulders and in my opinion saves whatever possible. She makes the movie much more agreable than it could be... Her performance to me is brilliant! And it's not because of the make up, or the hair the theet or the accent (although I haven't seen it in original language, which I should)... It's her eyes, her facial expressions, her way of moving her hand and put them under the nose... she gave humanity to this character, a soul... a reason for this movie to exists that is not to gain awards. At the end of the film, I left the theatre with lots of feelings inside me... and when a movie gives you lots of mixed emotions (negative and positive) it's always worth to be seen.
All that said, I keep fingers crossed for Meryl at SAG... with TIL she has demonstrated once more times to be the great actress she is... and all the nominations she gained for this movie are well deserved, although the movie itself it's not that great.
I have no idea what will happen in Best Actress tonight...of course I want Streep to win. But I would rather have her win the Oscar.....My gut though is telling me that with Spencer becoming such a lock for Supporting Actress that it is taking heat way from Viola? Especially come Oscar time....I just do not see SAG...let alone Oscar..giving out 2 acting awards to The Help...
When was the last time a film won Best Actress and Supporting Actress at the Oscars? And when did they also both win for playing the same type of character and objective (2 maids trying to get the truth out??)
Correction *3 awards* i think Help may win Ensemble at SAG
I know Streetcar named Desire and Network both had Oscar wins in best actress and best supporting actress...
It happened twice in the 1990s: The Piano (Holly Hunter and Anna Paquin) and <I>Shakespeare In Love (Gwyneth Paltrow and Dame Judi Dench).
I'm just hoping for some surprises. I think if anyone upsets Clooney it will be Jean Dujardin, although I highly doubt that will happen. Clooney is sailing towards Oscar.
Plummer is a lock.
I'd say Octavia Spencer is almost a lock, too, although wouldn't it be something if they threw a bone to Melissa McCarthy? (although personally I much preferred Spencer to McCarthy, but at least it would breathe some air into this horribly stale awards season).
Actress is a mystery. I guess the only one we can sadly count out is Tilda (although she's the best, in my opinion). I'd say Streep takes it, but just barely. Viola Davis is very possible, but like you, I just can't see them giving The Help THREE awards, because I definitely think it's winning best ensemble. I would actually be okay with a Williams upset, although maybe they'll want to reward Close for her longevity and passion project? I don't know, this category could go any way, but I'm predicting Streep simply because it's a performance I can see actors going gaga for. And she is indisputably brilliant in it, even if the film is less so.
Thanks SC!
I wonder if Meryl would get an Oscar nom if she were in a Uwe Boll movie?
Sorry - random though
I think all categories are fairly predictable with the exception of Ensemble and Lead Actress. I think The Help will win Ensemble (because that's what it is, an ensemble piece), but The Artist could take this if ensemble is supposed to represent Best Pix. And I have to go with Streep for the win in Lead Actress because it's an astonishing performance (especially the old lady stuff) and because she is on screen for practically the entire film.
I wonder how much it'll factor in that Meryl just won for "Doubt"
I think...
Actress: Viola
Actor: George :(
Supp. Actress: Octavia
Supp. Actor: Christopher
Possible spoilers:
Actress: Meryl
Actor: Brad
Supp. Actress: Melissa I guess. Or Jessica.
Supp. Actor: None