Actress Battles: Jessica vs. Jennifer, Quvenzhané vs. History
Thursday, November 29, 2012 at 12:15AM In a rather beautiful turn of events, both Les Misérables and Zero Dark Thirty arrived to implications of raves (ah, pointless Les Miz embargo) and actual ones (ZDT had no embargo) and though neither are opening until Santa's elves are deep into overtime, they've made the forthcoming Oscar race much more exciting. What we have are real competitions in multiple categories. At least for now; precursor prizes have a way of flattening out the drama if they arrive at consensus too quickly. We've already discussed Les Miz's first screening and the Hugh vs. Daniel Best Actor race.
But while you're waiting for my Zero Dark Thirty review, let's discuss the confusing Best Actress race.
This particular shot is the second half of one of my favorite cuts of the year... from the screen she's watching to this face.
BEST ACTRESS
What's the confusion, you may be asking. Yes, Jennifer Lawrence is still the frontrunner for Silver Linings Playbook and yes Jessica Chastain will be nominated for anchoring Zero Dark Thirty with single-minded determination. More...
(The absence of backstory and any sort of traditional character study arguably make Zero Dark Thirty more distinct and thematically authentic, but I don't think they necessarily do Jessica Chastain any favors from the cheaper angle of "but what about winning an Oscar!?!". But I digress...) Beyond Jennifer & Jessica who are sucking up more than their share of the conversation, opinions vary greatly. I personally suspect, having spoken to a few voters now, that Emmanuelle Riva (Amour) who I've been predicting for some time, has little to worry about. That'll be especially true if she shows up stateside for key events. Here's hoping critics awards lure her to make the trek! The Impossible's Naomi Watts seems like a solid bet, if no sure thing, given the intensity of her role, if not its level of difficulty. So let's assume, for argument's sake, that those four are locked and loaded. Who fills the last slot?
Nearly all of the other competitors have significant obstacles to overcome to land on the shortlist. Everyone knows that the nine year old star of Beasts of the Southern Wild Quvenzhane Wallis, just nominated for a Spirit Award, will break the Youngest Best Actress age record by a good margin. But... get this: she'll also be the youngest female ever nominated for any acting category and the third youngest overall.
YOUNGEST OSCAR NOMINEES
- Justin Henry, Kramer vs. Kramer (1979) - 8 years, 276 days [Supp Actor]
- Jackie Cooper, Skippy (1931) - 9 years, 20 days [Lead Actor]
- Tatum O'Neal, Paper Moon (1973) - 10 years, 106 days *WINNER* [Supp Actress / Category Fraud]
- Mary Badham, To Kill a Mockingbird (1962) -10 years, 141 days [Supp Actress / Category Fraud]
- Quinn Cummings, The Goodbye Girl (1977) - 10 years, 192 days [Supp Actress]
- Abigail Breslin, Little Miss Sunshine (2006) - 10 years, 284 days [Supp Actress]
- Patty McCormack, The Bad Seed (1956) - 11 years, 181 days [Supp Actress]
- Anna Paquin, The Piano (1993) - 11 years, 200 days *WINNER* [Supp Actress]
- Haley Joel Osment, The Sixth Sense (1999) - 11 years, 311 days [Supp Actor / Category Fraud]
- Brandon deWilde, Shane (1953) - 11 years, 312 days [Supp Actor]
- Saoirse Ronan, Atonement (2007) - 13 years, 200 days [Supp Actress]
- Keisha Castle Hughes, Whale Rider (2003) - 13 years, 309 days [Lead Actress]
But back to the adults...
Oscar winner Marion Cotillard might be nominated for Rust & Bone (more on her soon). BUT, as my friend David pointed out to me, if she is it'll be the first time a Best Actress role involved lots of trolling for dick on a cel phone! Previous nominee Keira Knightley and previous winner Helen Mirren are also being talked up for Anna Karenina and Hitchcock respectively but in both cases the love isn't really there for the films themselves for one reason or another. In Keira's case that's frustrating since I think she belongs in the Best discussion. I'd love to think that Maggie Smith (Quartet) and Barbra Streisand (The Guilt Trip), both of whom I was bullish on many months ago on paper, were still possibilities but those films could not have lower awards profiles. I was literally shocked tonight when Quartet arrived in the mail. So it does exist after all!!! Quartet may well have the lowest profile ever for a film with an Oscar friendly topic with so many Oscarable people in it directed by an Oscar winning actor.
My guess for the fifth nominee is still Helen Mirren. People think that's crazy since Hitchcock has been attacked in several quarter but I'm still guessing Mirren on account of my "default" theory. If you give Oscar voters too many options, or too many non-traditional options, they sometimes retreat to security blanket actors. (Think Judi Dench in Mrs Henderson Presents in the dull 2005 lineup or half of the 2003 lineup -- a year in which there were many better but less traditional options available) Still, if there's a throw-their-hands-up-from-indecision default nominee again this year I suppose Dench could even repeat. There's always The Best Exotic Marigold Hotel.
NEWLY UPDATED CHARTS
Picture - I'm predicting seven nominees ending with Zero Dark Thirty on the chart
Actress - If Jennifer loses some steam we could have a three-way race: Lawrence vs. Riva vs. Chastain
Actor -previously discussed
Director - this is starting to look really solid as a quintet. But for my longtime guesswork of Michael Haneke which could obviously not happen but it would make a kind of narrative momentum sense if it did.
Reader Comments (71)
I don't get why you're so confident about Riva. Sure, she's a critic's favorite, but how often does that translate to an Oscar nomination, especially when the favorite is foreign, and old, and probably not all that interested in campaigning?
The relevant precedent is probably Fernanda Montenegro in Central Station in 1998. All Riva needs is the precursor recognition that Montenegro got, and from what I'm reading on these pages, she's likely to get it.
Also, I think people are writing off Helen Mirren and Anthony Hopkins a little prematurely. Yes, Hitchcock's reviews weren't strong enough to sustain its Best Picture chances, but I've seen mostly (only?) good notices about their performances, and the Academy has always been able to separate out good acting from lesser movies (Training Day, anyone?). Even when Nixon and Amistad got passed over for Best Picture, the Academy still remembered Sir Anthony. And Dame Helen, well, she's Helen Mirren, dammit. If she could snag that nomination for The Last Station, then there's just no writing her off this soon.
@Paul Outlaw: I am so completely with you. I can't begin to understand Lawrence as the front-runner, especially if we're talking performance rather than People's Choice Award-style success. It's so weird.
I saw and loved Rust and Bone. Agree it might be too much for AMPAS. But Marion is campaigning like crazy. She's on everything from Charlie Rose to Chelsea Handler. She did NYTimes talk and THR roundtable - obviously really wants it.
My predicted five are Lawrence, Chastain, Riva, Watts and Wallis.
cal: I'll concede a slight mistake. Didn't know the 1965 Shop on Main Street was foreign language. However, we still shouldn't be counting anything mixed with English. That makes the record twice, both in the middle of Oscars most experimental time (65-77). So, could Cotillard make it: Probably not, due to Riva sucking away all the voters willing to watch foreign language stuff and what last year was like but I don't think she's as unlikely as, say, Barbara Streisand in The Guilt Trip (I was initially hopeful she'd seriously be in the running, but the trailer has an eat this steak in an hour gag? What is this, a bargain basement sitcom?), Maggie Smith in Quartet, Knightley in Karenina (If the Academy showed ANY taste for Tolstoy, I could buy it a bit more), Wallis in Beasts (She's young, and the actors might see it as a director's piece) or Judi Dench in Marigold. Like I said: Until the nominations and critics prizes come in, I'm betting the fifth slot is between Leslie Mann (shockingly solid career momentum, should get one somehow), Helen Mirren (old buck they seem to love these days) and Mary Elizabeth Winstead (Easy way to welcome her to the fold, and maybe a more solid "actors actor" than Lawrence).
Historically, we have AMPAS giving best actress to a comedy performance once a decade, but the last one was Paltrow. I think it's time...
Question:
Last year, if when J. Edgar was not nominated for Best Make-Up was any indication to Leo's chance for Best Actor, what could happen to Naomi Watts with the fact The Impossible is not short-listed for Best Visual Effect this year? Do the voters like the movie? I mean Hereafter was nominated for its tsunami visual effect.
Actually, Meryl Streep gives one of her most compellilng performances in Hope Springs - definitely top 5. I suppose she will be on the sidelines since she requested the studio NOT to campaign on her behalf this year. I think she is trying to avoid Streep fatigue and knows she will be a strong frontrunner next year for August Osage County - probably a smart move since Harvey will be producing the film...
I wouldn't count out Wallis yet. Beasts is Fox Searchlight's only horse in this race. I'm thinking they're going to push for it pretty hard.
cal: I get the idea, but, unless the gross really picks up, I don't quite see how, at this moment, the Academy could justify SLP winning a big prize like that.
TB: I don't know. The little girls in the supporting categories thing (Hailee Steinfeld in True Grit, especially) happens for a reason. They might be able to successfully push for some tech nods, but, even if Fox tries, I'm not sure if Beasts is viewed as enough of an "actor's movie" for her or Dwight Henry to get nominated.
med: Hmm. I doubt she'd have been able to get in either way. This is a very tight year, Hope Springs sounds like a light mid-year trifle and you can't be nominated for them all. Still, I'd probably say it's more likely than The Guilt Trip.
Nick Davis: And not even that, really. The film isn't even financially successful yet, so the guesses on her being the frontrunner for the win right now are astounding. My opinion will shift if, and only if, SLP cracks the $42 million mark.
I'll be so pissed if the academy decides to go comedy this year with Lawrence and Leslie Mann gives a better comedic performance in This Is Forty and goes unnoticed.
I'm praying, lighting candles and sacrificing stuffed animals in the hopes that Wallis is NOT nominated for Best Actress. That would be an unimaginable insult to those who are left off the list.
Conversely, I'm praying, lighting candles and sacrificing stuffed animals in the hopes that Rachel Weisz IS nominated for Best Actress. Her portrayal of a depressed romantic in "The Deep Blue Sea" is a searing, utterly raw performance that took my breath away. Shocking -- and frustrating -- that she's not leading this race.
Speaking of which, is Jennifer Lawrence really considered the front runner for her very good but hardly revelatory performance in "Silver Linings Playbook"? That's just sad.
@Joseph:
Rachel Weisz has the disservice of being a Supp Actress winner (see Jolie, Huston, Swinton).
3rtful: Jolie and Huston did, at least, get subsequent Lead nominations. Which I'm willing to accept for Weisz (especially if that means no Wallis).
J.P. For Mirren is still likely, but for Hopkins is doubtful. In the last ten years, we have seven actresses nominated for mixed reviewed films and only one in actor -Javier Bardem
Also- Training Day has 74 in Metacritic - Not excellent, but still positive enough than Hitchcock (58) and Last Station has 76 in Metacritic
Mikhael - Different situations. Yes, it's worrisome, but at least "The Impossible" is having an excellent response by the audiences in Europe and is the only big pony by Summit-Lionsgate. Also, Watts and McGregor have excellent support by AMPAS voters -Angelina Jolie, Stanley Tucci and Brad Pitt- J. Edgar got mixed reviews and low box office.
Do you still believe Hunt can be promoted to Lead?
Cal -- no. I think she's probably worn enough of a groove into Supporting. And critics groups and precursors aren't generally willing to rock the boat there and deny people their little campaign games.
Everyone -- it's kind of weird to me that people think Hopkins is done. He wears a lot of prosthetics. is in a biopic of sorts. And does mimicry and he's a former winner and multiple nominee playing someone every single academy member is instantly familiar with. Yes, the reviews aren't great. No, he doesn't deserve a nomination. but deserves got nothing to do with it (in those sorts of circumstances especially... and history bears that out) I'm not saying he will be nominated in such a competitive year but I still absolutely believe he has a shot (he and everyone else in Oscar friendly films that the internet is annoyed with ;)
C'mon! Write it down. Hopkins is Meryl this year. :)
brookesboy -- Linda Blair was actually 15 when she won her nomination for THE EXORCIST.
Thanks, Nathan! I'm embarrassed, I've had it wrong all these years LOL
"This year is contentious, and outside of Jennifer Lawrence, every single actress has some major cons against them."
Jennifer Lawrence has one major con against her - the performance can't hold a candle to most of the other contenders - and one minor con - it's the female lead, but it's arguably a supporting role, in point of fact. SLP is the Bradley Cooper Show. How does her screen time actually compare to that of DeNiro or Weaver?
(Confidential to Nick Davis: Sandra Bullock made more sense to me, and I was shaking my head that whole season anyway.)