Emmy Predictions. Who Are You Rooting For This Weekend?
Friday, September 20, 2013 at 10:34PM Giant all caps disclaimer coming at'cha: I AM NOT A TELEVISION PUNDIT. I have never claimed to know what I'm doing with predicting Emmys though occassionally I try. I watch way more TV than I did a decade ago mostly due to the invention of the DVR and also probably because TV got more cinematic and thus better. I am not a TV pundit but I like to watch and you know I like to opine. It's an action verb.
Herewith my poorly informed predictions regarding Sunday nights award's. Plus a few comments and trivia notes.
DRAMA
The Nominees: Breaking Bad, Downton Abbey, Game of Thrones, Homeland, House of Cards, and Mad Men
I'm Rooting For: Mad Men. Always. It's literally the only show I've ever watched as it aired that I'd hand the best series prize to for each and every one of its seasons (thus far). For example: I love Buffy the Vampire Slayer like life but I would've handed the top prize to a couple of different things and different times during its 7 year run.
Prediction: Given Emmy's prospensity/habit to repeat winners, you have to consider Homeland a threat for a second consecutive win even though you'd be hard pressed to find one person alive who thinks the second season measures up to the first. Downward sloping quality both true (Downton Abbey) and perceived (Mad Men isn't as "enjoyable" as it once was but it's still challenging meaty triumphant television) rules them out as well. Which leaves us with House of Cards and Game of Thrones and Breaking Bad, the latter of which I think is winning the internet the Emmy for the first time.
comedy series and 8 acting categories after the jump...
COMEDY
The Nominees: 30 Rock, The Big Bang Theory, Girls, Louie, Modern Family, and Veep
I'm Rooting For: 30 Rock for its swan song... though I'd be rooting much harder for it if it hadn't been so amply rewarded already in past years.
Prediction: As long as Modern Family doesn't take the prize for a fourth year, we're good. It's but a shadow of its former self. Because it's had such a stranglehold on this category it's difficult to guess what might happen this year though: TBBT has the ratings, Girls & Louie have the 'of the moment' creativity, Veep and 30 Rock have big laughs; so I'm predicting that its between Modern Family (habit) Big Bang Theory (ratings and because the Academy favors tradition and old school form more than they do in the Drama category) and 30 Rock (farewell) mostly because they're all on Broadcast Networks which is where this category always finds its winners. I'm guessing 30 Rock just barely ekes out its fourth and final victory, still one shy of the all time record (Frasier won five times). But I worry. It hasn't won since 2009 and the genius of the supporting cast (particularly Jane Krakowski) has never been amply recognized / rewarded so one senses there are pockets of resistance within the television Academy.
OUTSTANDING ACTRESS IN A DRAMA
The Nominees: Connie Britton, Nashville, Claire Danes, Homeland, Michelle Dockery, Downton Abbey, Vera Farmiga, Bates Motel, Elisabeth Moss, Mad Men, Kerry Washington, Scandal, and Robin Wright, House of Cards
I'm Rooting For: Elisabeth Moss but since Emmy voters clearly hate the idea of the best acted show on television ever winning any actual Emmy statues, can I have Connie Britton. That'd be so nice because it would make up for her not winning alongside Coach Taylor in that final season of Friday Night Lights plus she's great on Nashville.
Prediction: Easy. This is Claire Danes to lose again even if they turn on Homeland.
Jon Hamm has never won for one of the most brilliant characterizations that television as a medium has ever seenOUTSTANDING ACTOR IN A DRAMA
The Nominees: Hugh Bonneville, Downton Abbey, Bryan Cranston, Breaking Bad, Jeff Daniels, The Newsroom
Jon Hamm, Mad Men, Damien Lewis, Homeland, and Kevin Spacey, House of Cards
I'm Rooting For: Jon Hamm as per always. Emmy actually likes anti-heroes but for some reason people got all huffy this year about Don Draper being unlikeable this season. As if he was soft and cuddly on the other five seasons. LOL.
Prediction: I don't think Damian Lewis will repeat for Homeland but Emmy does love handing the same people the same statues repeatedly so I think they're easily going back to Bryan Cranston who already has 3 Emmys for this role from 2008, 2009 and 2010.
Trivia Alert: If Cranston wins a fourth, he ties Dennis Franz for most Emmys in this category ever. Franz won four times for NYPD Blue
OUTSTANDING SUPPORTING ACTRESS IN A DRAMA
The Nominees: Anna Gunn, Breaking Bad, Maggie Smith, Downton Abbey, Emilia Clarke, Game of Thrones, Christine Baranski, The Good Wife, Morena Baccarin, Homeland, and Christina Hendricks, Mad Men
I'm Rooting For: Christina Hendricks because it's insane that she hasn't won for this role. INSANE. That said this was hardly her strongest season with the narrative focused elsewhere so if I was forced to choose somehow else I would vote for Baccarin on Homeland who had a lot to work with and was quietly moving.
Prediction: I'm at a loss. If this is the year of Breaking Bad, than Gunn has a solid shot. Or they could default and just choose Dame Maggie again.
Did you star in Yentl? Yes, I starred in Ye--- what the hell kind of polygraph is this?
OUTSTANDING SUPPORTING ACTOR IN A DRAMA
The Nominees: Bobby Cannavale, Boardwalk Empire, Jonathan Banks, Breaking Bad, Aaron Paul, Breaking Bad, Jim Carter, Downton Abbey, Peter Dinklage, Game of Thrones and Mandy Patinkin, Homeland
I'm Rooting For: Mandy Patinkin in Homeland who is the show's grounding MVP in some ways and really should have been nominated for the first season. What was that about?
Prediction: Judging from online excitement I think Jonathan Banks will take it.
Trivia: Mandy Patinkin has a Tony (Evita) and an Emmy (Chicago Hope) but has never been nominated for a Grammy (despite multiple albums) or an Oscar.
OUTSTANDING ACTRESS IN A COMEDY
The Nominees: Laura Dern, Enlightened, Lena Dunham, Girls, Edie Falco, Nurse Jackie, Tina Fey, 30 Rock, Julia Louis-Dreyfus, Veep and Amy Poehler, Parks and Recreation
I'm Rooting For: Laura Dern or Amy Poehler though all of these women are great on their shows
Prediction: Er... uh... I think it's between Julia Louis-Dreyfus for Veep and Tina Fey for her 30 Rock farewell. Both have won before.
Trivia: Weirdly, despite the ruts that Emmy gets in with nominations and wins including in this category (Candice Bergen and Helen Hunt held a stranglehold forever. Ugh), they haven't repeated a win in a really long time. Not since 2001 when Patricia Heaton won her second for Everybody Loves Raymond.
OUTSTANDING ACTOR IN A COMEDY
The Nominees: Alec Baldwin, 30 Rock, Jason Bateman, Arrested Development, Louis CK, Louie, Don Cheadle, House of Lies, Matt LeBlanc, Episodes and Jim Parsons, The Big Bang Theory
I'm Rooting For: Louis CK easily
Prediction: Parsons and Baldwin have both won twice and it's easy to imagine either of them repeating. Let's say Baldwin for a 30 Rock farewell
OUTSTANDING SUPPORTING ACTRESS IN A COMEDY
The Nominees: Mayim Bialik, The Big Bang Theory, Jane Lynch, Glee, Julie Bowen, Modern Family, Merritt Wever, Nurse Jackie, Jane Krakowski, 30 Rock, Anna Chlumski, Veep, and Sofia Vergara, Modern Family
I'm Rooting For: I'm on Jenna's Side. Jenna 4ever. the only acceptable vote is Jane Krakowski both for another inspired season, her last season, AND her entire Emmy-less career. If Krakowski wasn't still Emmy-less despite brilliant work for years and years and consecutive years I'd be rooting for Wever, a true original in Nurse Jackie.
Prediction: Why do I have a weird suspicion we're getting Bialik?
OUTSTANDING SUPPORTING ACTOR IN A COMEDY
The Nominees: Adam Driver, Girls, Jesse Tyler Ferguson, Modern Family, Ed O’Neill, Modern Family, Ty Burrell, Modern Family, Bill Hader, Saturday Night Live and Tony Hale, Veep
I'm Rooting For: Adam Driver, 100%
Prediction: Tough call. They dont tend to stray from Modern Family so let's say Ed O'Neill or Jesse Tyler Ferguson to mix it up this time.
Who are you rooting for and who are you predicting for the big night Sunday?
Reader Comments (32)
Supporting Actress, Drama makes me so sad. The real performers (Gunn, Hendricks, Baranski) are probably just going to be avalanched by the kneejerk votes (Smith, Baccarin, Clarke???).
I believe in Jenna!
Julia Louis-Dreyfus to win!!
anna gunn!
but I'm afraid smith will win a third consecutive time for her could-do-it-in-her-sleep part.
(and can't believe you posted a "breaking bad" picture! you seem to gratuitously hate the show.)
marcelo -- i do not gratuitously hate any show i do not watch :)
The only person I'm truly excited for and I HOPE to win is Kerry Washington. She always performs with great integrity, and more so than the show and the acting, you take in consideration what the person/actor has done for the industry. Kerry is a political, outspoken woman, working for the highest office of the land for the arts. She's intelligent, beautiful, and more of a "movie-star" than the rest of her competition. She has "color" on her side as well; her win will make history (though I thought the same for Emmanuelle Riva last year for the Best Actress Oscar, but that has a whole set of other politics). She also has a show that EVERYONE can see. Homeland, for instance, is a cable show on a premium channel that costs extra. I watched every episode of Scandal for free on the internet on ABC.com. Scandal also has caught on to what modern television is beginning to form into, which is "at the disposal of the viewer." Because of shows that Netflix has created, and twitter, and other resources, people are back in control in that way. In a sense, fans of any particular show can feel almost closer to the world created for their enjoyment because of the internet.
Danes, who I LOVE, has three Emmys already. The only other actress who I would like to see win as well is Elizabeth Moss, but Kerry is "of the moment." And as an actor of color myself, it would be nice to see Washington win, even for the sheer fact of making history. All of the actresses in the category could, and should win; their formidable, and like theater, acting in a television series is difficult work. And basing an award winner on acting alone just doesn't truly happen anymore unless it's The Tonys or critic choice awards.
I find Kerry should be the ultimate winner in, probably, the most competitive category this year. However, the Emmys are known for consistently boring choices. I still can't get over not giving Steve Carell his farwell Emmy, or how Jon Hamm doesn't even have one. There are SO many wrongs, but you continue to hope for a right one. :-)
I'm rooting for Charlotte Rampling, Sigourney Weaver, Alfre Woodard, Veep in all categories, Laura Dern, Jessica Lange, Matt Damon (Mr Underrated).
I'm very conflicted in the Supporting Actor (Drama) category as to who will win. Jonathan Banks does indeed have the buzz from fans, but part of me thinks that if Giancarlo Esposito (who by all means deserved the Emmy) couldn't beat out costar Aaron Paul last year, then Banks won't this year. However, Paul had a stronger season last year (Season 4, that is) and a much showier submission episode to boot, so it might be apples and oranges to compare the two years. Maybe Banks does have a great chance at winning just based on the fact that Aaron Paul is probably not as strong this year as he was last year. But then again, Jonathan Banks's character could be seen as kind of one-note to voters who don't actually keep up with the show and are only watching the submission episode. So this is very difficult to predict. I think that the voters within the Academy who actually follow Breaking Bad all the way through will probably vote for Jonathan Banks, but it's hard to say how many members that amounts to. So just to avoid this conflict, I'm going to guess that this category doesn't go to either of the Breaking Bad men, and they give it to Mandy Patinkin instead.
My predictions (not my personal picks):
Drama Series- Homeland (yes, everyone thinks S2 was a huge step down from S1, but they might be fooled if they're just going by the submission episodes)
Comedy Series- 30 Rock
Drama Actor- Kevin Spacey (Cranston will win again next year, thus tying Franz's record)
Drama Actress- Claire Danes
Comedy Actor- Alec Baldwin
Comedy Actress- Julia Louis-Dreyfus
Drama Supporting Actor- Mandy Patinkin
Drama Supporting Actress- Anna Gunn
Even though I gave up on her show sometime during the first season, I adore Kerry Washington and want her to make history on Sunday night. On the other hand, Mad Men somehow has ZERO wins in the acting categories so I wouldn't be mad if Moss (or anyone from the show) took it.
I somehow accidentally submitted my comment before I finished my predictions, so here are the rest:
Comedy Supporting Actor- Ty Burrell
Comedy Supporting Actress- Sofia Vergara
Miniseries/Movie- Behind the Candelabra
Miniseries/Movie Actor- Michael Douglas
Miniseries/Movie Actress- Jessica Lange
Miniseries/Movie Supporting Actor- James Cromwell
Miniseries/Movie Supporting Actress- Sarah Paulson
Drama Directing- David Fincher (House of Cards)
Comedy Directing- Louis C.K. (Louie)
Miniseries/Movie Directing- Steven Soderbergh (Behind the Candelabra)
Drama Writing- Homeland
Comedy Writing- 30 Rock ("Last Lunch")
Miniseries/Movie Writing- Behind the Candelabra
The only person that I'm truly rooting for is Kerry Washington. There are a few key factors that I hope solidify her win. Most notably the historic factor on not just the obvious. Internet is changing the scope of television more so than it does in film. Shows like Scandal and House of Cards are now at the hands of the viewer, at their control. I watched both seasons of Scandal at my disposal over the course of the year; and same with House of Cards, and Orange is the New Black (as well as The Killing, which I enjoyed for a time). With cable prices rising, I find that I don't want to financially invest in cable or premium channels to catch shows like Homeland. Too costly for the actual amount of television I consume with my busy schedule.
Also, Washington is the "it" girl of the moment. She didn't necessary campaign for the Emmys in my opinion, however she was the constant person I saw in many interviews leading up to the Emmys. As an actor myself, I never consider doing those type of interviews as "campaigning." It's part of the job, it's also a way to get your perspective heard. I remember Viola Davis saying she found her voice doing the numerous interviews leading up to The Oscars during her Best Actress run. You are a spokesperson for that film/show/play. I would find that very exciting. And lets not forget they probably are paid for their time, but that's besides the point.
Washington also has the color historic factor. She would be the first Black Woman to win, and in a year where race has been an issue on a national level, oddly enough, this could do some good. And she's a prominent face and representative for the arts under Obama whic helps; which is another noble factor she contains by being a positive political woman. She's also the only "movie-star" in her category, and the Emmys like to award them (it's usually in the mini-series/movie category, but I find it has helped in other categories).
Danes, who I LOVE, has three already. I would also like to see Elizabeth Moss win, but Washington is more "of the moment."
In the most competitive category of this year's Emmy Awards, I find Washington to walk away with this one. And let's be honest; television is hard work. It reminds me of theater. Just like the Tonys, almost anyone in the category deserves a win. It's incredibly time-consuming, these actors can rarely get away to do anything else when these shows are being filmed. Their lives circle around that show. So anyone could and should win. But I'm hoping and going with Kerry
God how much would I like to see them flip the switch and have Breaking Bad get series and Jon Hamm get actor. I think wishful thinking may actually come true here, since I think Hamm's acting was praised last season even as some critics thought it was an overall letdown, and Breaking Bad has some of the zeitgeist at this point.
My fear is House of Cards and Kevin Spacey, an awful over-the-top performance in a bad, bad, ridiculous show.
I think Washington and Dern will win. I forget, though: are there other categories? No, just these two? Thought so.
Not posting predictions, because it's obvious, irritating and boring who will win.
In Drama I'm rooting for Breaking Bad, Mad Men & Game of Thrones; Cranston & Hamm; Moss & Britton; Gunn & Hendricks; Cannavale, Paul & Banks.
In Comedy: Louie; Louis CK; Poehler & Falco; Burrell & O'Neill; Wever.
In Movie or Miniseries: Top of the Lake; Damon; Moss; Hickey; Paulson; CAMPION.
Tatiana Maslany. I just had to type her name in this comment.
I'll lose it if Washington wins. It'd be a pretty terrible win. I don't give six damns if she'd be the first black to win. It's not deserved. Give Tyler Perry an Oscar then if we're just giving shit away.
The only person I'm invested in is Jane Krakowski, for "Muffin Top" alone, but so many more moments besides over the years.
Jessica Lange. The End.
I'm rooting for:
Drama: Breaking Bad
Drama Actor: Bryan Cranston
Drama Actress: Claire Danes
Drama Supp. Actor: Mandy Patinkin
Drama Supp. Actress: Anna Gunn
Comedy: 30 Rock
Comedy Actor: Alec Baldwin
Comedy Actress: Tina Fey or Amy or Julia
Comedy Supp. Actor: Tony Hale
Comedy Supp. Actress: Jane Krakowski
I love, love Breaking Bad so I really hope it takes Best Series finally! But I'm also rooting for Mad Men to finally get some acting awards. My order preference of Mad Men acting awardage: Moss, Hendricks, Hamm. For Comedy, I don't even know. Just give it to Amy Poehler and Jane Krakowski already goddammit!
@Morgan or how about Bullock or Paltrow .......oh wait. Kerry Washington is phenomenal in Scandal so it would be well deserved.
Please emmy god I can't live in a world were AMY POEHLER is emmyless...
I want Kerry Washington to win and the only hope I'm holding onto is the fact that what'shisface won guest drama actor so they obviously watch the show and liked it enough.
Drama: Breaking Bad
Actor: Kevin Spacey (I want Hamm to win but Emmys like movie stars)
Actress: Kerry Washington (Not really a category that lends itself to repeat winners unless it is Glenn Close or Edie Falco)
Supporting Actor: Aaron Paul
Supporting Actress: Anna Gunn
Directing: Fincher for House of Cards pilot (But Michelle MacLaren **should** win and Rian Johnson for "Fifty-One" should've been nominated)
Writing: "Q&A", Homeland aka Brody confesses but Dana and the Veep's son hit somebody
Comedy: 30 Rock
Actor: Louis CK
Actress: Julia Louis-Dreyfus
Supporting Actor: Tony Hale (Adam Drive in that "On All Fours" episode though....)
Supporting Actress: Jane Krakowski (Please!!!!!)
Writing: Either Louie episode.
Directing: The 30 Rock finale by Beth McCarthy-Miller Lena Dunham's direction in "On All Fours" astounded me.
The internet might explode if Jane Krakowski doesn't</> win. I'm rooting for "Mad Men" and if one of "Modern Family"'s men have to win, I'm rooting for Ed O'Neill, who was never even nominated for Al Bundy, godfather of the current Man-Child actors today.
I also look forward to see what shenanigans Amy Poehler and the Leading Comedy Ladies have up their sleeves. And NPH should be a fun host.
@ Melissa: Nope. Trashy, awful show about the president's hoe. Her show has the highest ratings out of the seven so she's the populist choice. But even Kerry Washington can't save the terribleness of Shonda Rhimes' "Scandal".
I've always found Don Draper as flawed as Betty, but Betty was hated while he was not. Why people think differently this season?
I think it's because this season was more focused on Don Draper than usual (we have even seen him drop his pants to get a shot!), so the more you see the more flaws you find, and as the character continues his downward spiral he crossed some invisible lines. Betraying his only two buddies, his wife, the first one who loved with his secrets and Peggy, at the same time that both women were becoming more sympathetic for the audience (Peggy's comic moments and Jessica's troubled relationship with her boss). Also the hint at (dominant) role playing in the sex relationship with his lover was probably too much for the more prudish audiences.
Can't wait for the next season.
PS. Is Girls still a comedy? I love it, but laughing is not the first thing that comes to my mind when I think about it.
Veep for everything! Oh, also Kerry Washington!
Really hoping the Breaking Bad sweep some are predicting doesn't happen. Very overrated show in my opinion. Not saying it isn't great, but my god that show has broken the Internet in the past two years even though it is well past its best seasons.
Here's to Krakowski and Hamm finally winning Emmys hopefully!
I am the one person alive that thinks that the second of season of Homeland is superior to the first.
The episodes State of Independence, New Car Smell and Q&A are the three best hours of television I watched last season and no season one episodes compare to that triple feature.
I had forgotten that my two favorites shows, Mad Men and Girls, are not nominated for the writing awards. Well, that's just insane.
I'm rooting for Dern, Krakowski and Adam Driver. I think he's got a shot if the voters watch his episode.
The only thing that I care about is that Breaking Bad wins the Drama category. It is the best of the best. I have been watching it for all 5 seasons, and it had never stopped to be cool. Game of thrones would be my second choice, definitely. Even though the scene with climbing the ice wall was kinda stupid. C´mon, make better and more realistic effects. For the next year, I want to see some drama that would support Edward Snowden. I hope there will be some good drama about his case soon, because his act of bravery was absolutely outstanding! We need Emmy and other popular events to promote his cause in public and against the corrupted politicians.
Iggy: Girls definitely had enough comic moments but also some of the most uncomfortable TV that I ever had to sit through. I honestly liked the more dramatic episodes. That said it is more comedy than Enlightened, which still shocks me that it went for Comedy. I guess it and Nurse Jackie cannot say they're dramas because they're 30 minutes in runtime?
"I've always found Don Draper as flawed as Betty, but Betty was hated while he was not. Why people think differently this season?"
For me, like Skyler White, Betty reminds people too much of their mothers, specifically mothers of that period. Frankly, I thought she was awesome that year. If what she did to Don in "The Better Half" was for real, sleeping with him and then treating it like it never happened and that she is not desperate to get him back, then high-fives all around. That was brilliant. Don seems to becoming closer to the embodiment of the show's mission statement of being somebody who advertised himself to the world but it was all fake and he just stopped believing it. That said, yeah him finally confessing and opening himself up to his children gave him so much goodwill. I doubt we'd see Peggy, Joan, or Betty get a scene like that.
I don't get why some people are mad at Breaking Bad's gaining popularity that gained substantial steam for its final season. Isn't that what we want with all shows we like? Plus, I cannot really compare Season 5 with other Breaking Bad seasons because it is all final. There is no continuation to anticipate going forward. That's what makes final seasons to all great shows so tough and difficult. For me Breaking Bad is having one of the finest final seasons, whether we combine the final 16 episodes or just use the final six of the eight episodes seen. Plus, I think the show finally acknowledged that the entire series actually does take place in a small amount of time so the structure shift for me makes a lot of sense.
For some reason I thought Adam Driver submitted "On All Fours". He actually submitted "It's Back" which is not a dark episode for him that might turn voters off and he gives one helluva monologue in that AA meeting. It manages to be a funny but uncomfortable episode of Girls without feeling too broad, like Lena Dunham's submitted episode "Bad Friend". Her directing episode was so much better than her acting episode, especially her performance in "On All Fours".
"I don't get why some people are mad at Breaking Bad's gaining popularity that gained substantial steam for its final season. Isn't that what we want with all shows we like?"
AMEN! And it's even better when it's wholly deserved.