Which of the First-Time Nominees Will Return Soon to Oscar?
Wednesday, March 5, 2014 at 11:01AM Some years ago now I did a study on how often actors win second nominations. I can't find the figures at the moment but I believe it was around 42%. Obviously it's not as many as we pretend each Oscar love-in season. Though it's arguably easier to win a second nomination than it is a first -- they're already considering you if you will -- that doesn't mean it's easy, if you get me. The Oscars are definitely a pyramid in shape. There's only one actor with 18 nominations and there are hundreds of thousands with 0. I don't mean to be a bummer, just to underline how special and rare the Oscar experience is even for celebrity actors. Lineups like Best Actress this time, which I believe has the highest average nomination count of all time in an acting shortlist, fool us into believing otherwise but the majority of first nominations are also last nominations.
the first-timers this year that DIDN'T win: Chiwetel, Sally, Barkhad, Fassy, June*should we do a fashion post?
But let's stay optimistic!
Who among this year's first-time nominees do you think will be the first to be invited back? Explain your choice in the comments. I think I'm going with Sally Hawkins only because her work has been really solid for a long time and now that they've noticed her, perhaps a rush of even better roles will happen? It's not always easy to predict. I mean, who among us thought that Jonah Hill would be the first among the new men from the class of 2011 to do it? There's no wrong answer. At least not for another year or three.
If you like this poll, there are more, you know. Vote on those, too!
Reader Comments (52)
Between McConaughey and Fassbender.
Hill and Bale weren't in the same year for their first nomination.
And this is Fassy, absolutely, followed by McConaughey and then Hawkins.
fashion post! fashion post!
it's sad to think that "the majority of first nominations are also last nominations"... but it's true.
poor Elisabeth Shue, Sharon Stone, Queen Latifah, Rosie Perez.
omg now that I see those 4 names together I want them in an HBO comedy now! haha
Jestifer -- ugh you're right. I fixed. but that even proves my point more. Only Jessica Chastain among 2011's "first timers" got to a second nod faster than Jonah Hill. LOL
Out of everybody on the list, Fassbender has been the one to get the most Oscar buzz in the past (even if it never resulted in a nomination until this year), and he is, in my opinion, the actor who is consistently giving stellar performance after stellar performance (at least, he hasn't had a bad performance in a film of his that I've seen thus far). So, just based on that, it'd be him. Though, of course, it also depends on film choice to a certain extent, and we can never really be sure who'll get the next "right project" first. I'm just saying that, by consistent quality of performances, he'd be the one to surprise me the least.
I agree with Rob. I wish it'd be Lupita or Sally, but Lupita doesn't have much lined up and Sally has a terrible history getting nominated (#justiceforpoppy), so it'll definitely be Fassbender.
Agree with Rob. Fassbender is my vote.
I think I'd go with Sally Hawkins as well. I think she's been working so consistently in the type of projects that were it a weaker year, or were the projects a little bit stronger (Made in Dagenham, Never Let Me Go) they would have definitely clicked over onto Oscar's radar. Post Happy-Go-Lucky she's been making really smart choices and building up a diverse career. Even something like Godzilla means that many more people she'll be working with, which is partly how Melissa Leo became a two-time nominee and eventual winner--she worked with EVERYONE.
I hope she's back. And I hope her dress is just as amazing the next time (she surprised me). I was getting full on Christina Ricci in Casper from her at the Oscars (that's a good thing).
Fassbender could potentially already be filming his next nomination with Macbeth. As many said he's the obvious choice. I'm hoping the nomination proves a boon for Ejiofor and we see him headlining more major movies and possible nomination soon.
I agree with you - it's Sally. Fassbender won't campaign, and the male categories are always more competitive. He snuck in this time because he was in the BP winner.
Pretty much impossible to predict - I actually voted McConaughey as he seems most likely to have his pick of roles, is hell-bent on choosing more 'worthy' projects and is now firmly on the radar of voters...
Right now I guess McConaughey has every single script ever written gathering dust on his desk so...
I voted for Fassy. I think hes the obvious choice. I think it will be him because he has more than proved himself with his body of work, not campaigning isn't always a negative if you are consistently strong in your choices and are seen as a "serious" actor and are respectful of the academy.......and this is most important....he is always working. You can't get a nomination if you don't have a film in play.
Fassbender for MACBETH.
1. Fassy
2. McC
3. Hawkins
4. Chiwetel
5. Lupita
6. Leto
7. Squibb
8. Abdi
fashion post! fashion post! x2
Lupita Nyong'o would be my choice, but Fassbender is my prediction. Michael Fassbender had such a great run so far with some very interesting roles that I can't believe this wasn't his second nomination at this point, and I think he has some great things on the way. I'm in such a Lupita crush right now, and I really would love to see her beat the odds, but at this point there's no telling how the casting people will see her and what roles she will get, but she's the one I would love to see back in maybe 4 or 5 years in a lead role nomination.
I can't see them voting for Hawkins again so soon, she strikes me as one of those 'we already nominated her once that's enough' type of actresses like a Patricia Clarkson or Vera Farmiga. I can see MM getting nominated again after his win, that sometimes happens, or Fassbender on their radar more now so I went with Fassy.
I also voted for Fassbender, but it is obviously not clear cut when Paul Giamatti is still looking for his second nomination.
I would love to see Sally Hawkins back at the Kodak as a nominee--better yet, as a winner. As an English actress she has the potential to work for a long time, and her co-stars (particularly Colin Farrell, Cate Blanchett, and Rosamund Pike) always seem to really like her. Here's hoping that the future holds a lot of great opportunities for her.
This topic makes me very anxious for Lupita and Chiwetel. Both should be return nominees. But the luxury that Chiwetel has over Lupita is his gender. Men have options including non-white men (Morgan Freeman (1 win, 5 nominations), (Denzel Washington (2 wins, 6 nominations), (Jamie Foxx (1 win, 2 nominations), and (Will Smith (2 nominations).
There's hope for Lupita. Viola Davis is likely to return as a nominee this year for her supporting role in the Tate Taylor James Brown biopic. Making her the most nominated black actress at three nominations.
Have you ever done a "Class of ...." post talking about who was next to get their second nomination? I know we feel Oscar'd out, but it would be interesting.
I went against the grain and chose Chewitel! He's consistently been nominated at the Golden Globes and has a propensity for "important" films.
This was last Lupita's nomination. So far there was no black woman nominated AFTER she won an Oscar so that's a done deal. The Academy won't change do easily. Abdi, Squibb and Leto are also people who probably won't be nominated ever again. Ejiofor - who knows but I doubt it. I believe only in Fassbender, McConaughey and Hawkins.
I voted for Fassy...but I wholehartedly agree with kin about Paul Giamatti needing a second nomination.
So far 0% for Leto, Squibb, and Abdi. Can someone put them all in a movie together?
Fassy might become this year's Philip Seymour Hoffman: Nominated for the first time after being overlooked time and again for stellar peformances, but then all of a sudden becoming the default nominee for whatever he does. (Then again, Hoffman won on his first nomination and Fassy didn't, so the parallel isn't quite right already from the beginning.)
If Jared Leto makes himself rare (and there's a good chance he will), and chooses his few roles wisely (and there's a good chance he won't), he might garner awards attention for one of those rare performances, as well.
And for some reason, I can totally see June Squibb pull a Jonah Hill (or, for that matter, a Jessica Tandy) and return once more, as well.
(However, I'm really bad at this. I would have bet anything I have that Sandra Bullock would never get another nomination ever again, and see how long that held true...)
I voted for Ejiofor.
I take consolation in Ejiofor, Hawkins, and Fassbender not having an Oscar yet, in that I don't want them to be remembered for the part they were just nominated for. They all have so much more range. I want Hawkins to win for Best Actress in a role that really showcases her.
Ejiofor is one of the great current theatrical talents. He's been so wonderful in all the supporting and indie film roles he has had so far. But people just didn't "see" him because he wasn't a name. Now that their attention is focused on him, they will be amazed and delighted with him.
I think Fassy, Hawkins or Eijofor. Maybe one of the more unlikely 'on paper' nominees. Who would have thought Jacki Weaver would pull off 2 noms after her nom for Animal Kingdom (am I wrong in thinking she also beat Jonah Hill to a 2nd?)
@ someone:
Well, sometimes the Academy does change of all of a sudden. Remember what was dubbed the 'Black Oscars', with Halle Berry and Denzel Washington winning Best Actor and Best Actress.
Well, here's an interesting statistic:
Number of black Oscar winners for acting in the 73 years before 2001: six (with an additional 31 nominations)
Number of black Oscar winners for acting in the 12 years since 2001: seven (with an additional 18 nominations)
And more importantly: It has become normal that black actors and actresses win Oscars. I can't remember a single discussion caused by the fact that an Oscar frontrunner/winner was black and how his/her skin colour might factor in the race. As far as I remember, that used to be fairly common in the 90s.
I'd love to say June Squibb and you never know. I wouldn't have thought Jacki Weaver would have had a second and she did but even if that does happen she won't be next.
My fervent hope is for Chiwetel. I love him and think he's one of the best actors working today but he rarely gets showy roles and when he does as in Kinky Boots they're in lower profile films.
Sally is a maybe but she's a bit quirky for mainstream recognition and Lupita and Leto's slates are open at the moment so if nothing else that would push them back.
Abdi is going to be a niche actor so probably not and McConaughey is such a pompous jackass I hope its not him.
So my vote went to Fassbender, he's well regarded and has come close before plus he has some prestige items coming up. Oh and he's deserving but that rarely factors in.
Yes to a fashion post!
Fassbender strikes me as most logical, but I went with Ejiofor. The guy has such an impressive resume that I could see him slipping into perennial status and no one really double-thinking it. Maybe I'm just hoping that's the case though.
McConaughey could also be back for Interstellar. We'll see.
Abdi has a role of a life time coming: he is gonna play the lead in the biopic of South African runner Willie Mtolo.
Looking at the pic above of these five actors, I can only smile. This is why the awards season has been so much fun this year--what an interesting group. We've had two years of really strong Best Supporting Actress lineups. I hope this carries on.
My favorite of this group is Chiwetel--he could turn out to be on of our all-time greats. And I am so rooting for Sally and June!
I went for Fassy, I guess mostly everyone else did too!
Definitely Michael Fassbender. He should have been nominated two years ago, and I don't think he'll never campaign again. He's got Macbeth (and who knows how Slow West will turn out), and for sure something else with Steve McQueen in the future. And probably a whole lot of other options too, he's one of the best working today.
My fingers are crossed for Lupita, and especially Chiwetel, though. Sadly I can't see Abdi or June Squibb getting another nomination anytime soon (but then again I'd have said the same thing about Jonah Hill and Jacki Weaver...).
As adorable as Hawkins was, the dress looked too big for her. She looked as she had dressed up in her mother's clothes - her mother being much bigger than her-. So, yes fashion post please.
Like most of the others, I voted for Fassbender. He should have been nominated for Hunger or Shame (or both), and is overdue for some recognition. I don't think his campaigning (or not) would have made much difference in this year; the various awards shows suggested that the film was not going to sweep, and Ejiofor and Nyong'o were the more likely. I can't see him taking 5-6 months off to campaign (really I can't see anyone doing that, though they do!) but maybe a few selected events in the future. The set photos from Macbeth look stunning; I hope that turns out to be the one.
McConaughey, especially if sea of trees is good. That sounds like a great film. And something tells me they might wanna make him the new clooney. Even though his speech was meh. That's honest coming from me cause I love the guy.
I voted McConaughey but I hope it's Hawkins. Maybe she could get one for that PJ Harvey/Nick Cave film that exists thus far only in my head.
Get Ejiofor, Nyong'o, Fassbender, and Squibb in a David O. Russell vehicle together, and BOOM -- second nominations for all. Now let's have fun devising a story.
Get Ejiofor, Nyong'o, Fassbender, and Squibb in a David O. Russell vehicle together, and BOOM -- second nominations for all. Now let's have fun devising a story.
Fassbender hands down! He is an incredible actor
But if any of them get a role in a Darren Aronofsky movie, they will certainly get nominated or create lots of buzz
I hope Lupita will get more roles and a stellar career!
lol as if fassbender will not campaign ever again just because he was bitter this/last year.
I voted Sally Hawkins and then I realized I'm not sure why. I think she could be invited back as a nominee at some point, but not too soon.
I was a bit surprised to see Michael Fassbender winning in a landslide, probably bc of how absent he was this awards season, but I feel like he has a really good shot with Macbeth.
I actually can see McConaughey coming back really soon considering the way his career is going right now.
I honestly could even see June Squibb coming back. She'll probably be a hot commodity for old women roles (not that there are many...) and if there are any good ones, I could see her getting attention for them.
*Prays for Lupita and Chiwetel*
*Still praying that Viola Davis can somehow win an Oscar*
*Prays about James Brown biopic, maybe it's her year*
The only one I don't see having much of a chance is Barkhad, but that's why I'm rooting for him even more. That would be really interesting to see him come back.
McConaughey or Ejiofor. I'm actually really shocked McConaughey isn't leading this poll by a lot. He's a major white male American Hollywood star with box office appeal who has established his acting credientials. And honestly, getting an Oscar nomination isn't about how talented someone is or how good their performance is. More than anything, it's about the right role in the right project--a film likely to register on the Academy's radar. And McConaughey will be getting more of those kind of offers than anyone on this list.
Ejiofor I can see easily developing an incredible career. There are not many (any?) black American actors in their mid-30s who have really broken out. So he may actually pick a lot of the kind of parts that 10 or 20 years ago went to Denzel Washington. He's also an extraordinarily versatile actor.
Fassbender? He's not pursuing uber-baity projects. Slow West is by a first time director. Malick actors don't get nominations. Macbeth is from a little known Australian director and actors are hyper, hyper-critical about Shakespeare. That's why Fiennes and Redgrave went nowhere with Corialanus. I also think basically got swept up in the 12 Years love and that he was kind of the after-thought in his category. He's an austere actor and is probably more respected than loved.
@marcelo - He said he wouldn't.
Just for some fun maths:
Looking at the last 12 years of ceremonies:
- Only 29 out of the 111 first time nominees have been nominated a second time, or: roughly a quarter
But...
- In 10 of those years, at least one first time nominee as been nominated again (the only exceptions are 2007 and 2002, the former being the more notable given the near-misses for Cotillard and Swinton)
- 5 of those years had a nominee repeat at the next ceremony (2012 - Cooper; 2011 - Chastain; 2009 - Firth AND Renner; 2003 - Depp; 2001 - Kidman AND Zellweger)
- Of the remaining 5, 4 had someone repeat within two years (2010 - Lawrence and Weaver; 2008 - Leo; 2006 - Cruz; 2005 - Hoffman and Clooney)
- The year that had the longest gap between first and second nominations is 2004 (took Portman six years to be nominated; incidentally, she is the only member of her "class" to do so)
What does this mean? Well, I guess that there's a ~42% we'll see one of these folks back next year and a 75% we'll see one within two years!
Other fun info!
- The most nominated actors who got their first nomination since 2001: A. Adams (5); G. Clooney (4), P.S. Hoffman (4); P. Cruz (3), N. Kidman (3), J. Lawrence (3), M. Williams (3), R. Zellweger (3). In fact, the only person with more nominations in that time frame is Streep (naturally) with 6.
- Of the 22 who won on their first nom: only 6 have been nominated since (Bale, Bullock, Waltz, Hoffman, Clooney, Theron) and only one has won again (Waltz). That comes to 27%, which isn't great news for McConaughey, Leto, or Nyong'o
- Of the 23 who didn't win on their first nomination, but were nominated again, 9 won (Lawrence, Firth, Hathaway, Leo, Cruz, Ledger, Portman, Kidman, Zellweger). Also worth noting that Zellweger aside, all of them won on their second attempt. Which means, whoever of this group gets nominated again, they have like a 35% chance of winning!
Also, I only went as far as the 2001 Oscars (celebrating films from 2001, naturally), mostly because my knowledge of who was a previous nominee was beginning to give out, but the 2000 oscars are actually quite interesting:
- Of the 6 first-time nominees, 5 have been nominated again (Bardem, Linney, del Toro, Phoenix, Harden); the Hudson stands alone
- 3 of those 5 are Oscar winners--del Toro and Harden that year and Bardem in 2007--so where are Linney and Phoenix's Oscars??
I'm sure this is not how statistics work, but maybe someone else will find this even mildly interesting.
Also, when is Amy Adams going to win an Oscar? It's not as if she's come close any of the years she was nominated (surely this is the only year she came in 'second') but still!
Just a trivia to share with everyone:
1995 remains the best year for first time nominees (as far as my research is concerned):
Nicolas Cage - 1995, 2002
Ed Harris - 1995, 1998, 2000, 2002
Sean Penn - 1995, 1999, 2001, 2003, 2008
Brad Pitt - 1995, 2008, 2011
Kevin Spacey - 1995, 1999
Joan Allen - 1995, 1996, 2000
Kate Winslet - 1995, 1997, 2001, 2004, 2006, 2008
2005 can also be a runner up:
George Clooney - 2005, 2007, 2009, 2011 (would have made a record had he been nominated this year)
Philip Seymour Hoffman (+) - 2005, 2007, 2008, 2012
Heath Ledger (+) - 2005, 2008
Amy Adams - 2005, 2008, 2010, 2012, 2013
Michelle Williams - 2005, 2010, 2011
Please feel free to correct or add to this. Thanks!
thanks for the research, Baxter and Ariel. Pretty fun to read.