PGA Documentary Nominations: Are They Actually Bad Luck for Oscar?

Precursor awards are like microwave popcorn. It takes a second for the bag to heat up and then things really start popping. Today the Producers Guild of America named their nominees for Theatrical Documentary Features. The Producers Guild Award winners will be presented on Saturday, January 23, 2016 in Los Angeles. 

Documentary Feature Nominees

• AMY (Reviewed, Top Box Office Doc Hits)
• THE HUNTING GROUND (Top Box Office Doc Hits) 
• THE LOOK OF SILENCE (Reviewed)
• MERU (Top Box Office Doc Hits)
• SOMETHING BETTER TO COME

The only one of these titles I hadn't personally heard of before today was Something Better to Come, a poverty-doc about children living on a gabarge dump in Moscow. More on what this list does and doesn't mean for Oscar after the jump...

It's easy to forget the minutiae of precursor awards once Oscar season wraps and the Oscars themselves fully dominate the memory banks. But here's a brief comparison of this decade's corresponding PGA & Oscar lineups. 

PGA Documentary 2014	Oscar Documentary 2014
• The Green Prince • Life Itself • Merchants of Doubt • Particle Fever • Virunga	• Citizen Four • Finding Vivian Maier • Last Days in Vietnam • Salt of the Earth • Virunga
PGA Documentary 2013	Oscar Documentary 2013
• A Place at the Table • Far Our Isn't Far Enough • Life According to Sam • We Steal Secrets • Which Way is the Front Line From Here?	• 20 Feet From Stardom • The Act of Killing • Cutie & The Boxer • Dirty Wars • The Square
PGA Documentary 2012	Oscar Documentary 2012
• A People Uncounted • The Gatekeepers • The Island President • The Other Dream Team • Searching For Sugar Man	• 5 Broken Cameras • The Gatekeepers • How to Survive a Plague • The Invisible War • Searching for Sugar Man
PGA Documentary 2011	Oscar Documentary 2011
• Beats, Rhymes & Life: The Travels of a Tribe Called Quest • Bill Cunningham New York • Project Nim • Senna • The Union	• Undefeated • Hell and Back Again • If a Tree Falls • Paradise Lost 3: Purgatory • Pina
PGA Documentary 2010	Oscar Documentary 2010
• Client 9: The Rise and Fall of Eliot SpitzerQ • Earth Made of Glass • Inside Job • Smash His Camera • Waiting for Superman	• Exit Through the Gift Shop • Gasland • Inside Job • Restrepo • Wasteland

As you can see from the charts, the Producers Guild and the Oscar's Doc branch don't align well. There's generally only one shared nominee and only once this decade have the two groups shared a documentary winner (Searching for Sugar Man). Coincidentally that was also the only recent year in which they shared two nominees since The Gatekeepers was nominated for both prizes, too. 

There's more overlap in these charts if you account for the Oscar "finalist list" since the Academy selects their 5 nominees from a 15 wide list that triumphed from a long list of 100+ titles each year). Several of the recent PGA nominees, though not all of them, have almost made it to Oscar's coveted shortlist. So, in short: should you be a filmmaker you should enjoy each "precursor" honor for what it is rather than as "dress rehearsal" for Oscar. Live in the now! Statistically all five of today's nominees are now solid threats for Oscar's finalist list (they're all on the 124 wide longlist that the branch is screening now) but actually bad luck if they're hoping to win an actual naked gold man. 

P.S. Though Documentaries are almost never nominated for Oscars outside of their specific category The Hunting Ground, a documentary about rape on college campuses, does have another way in. Lady Gaga wrote the theme song "Til It Happens To You" so perhaps she'll be up for Best Original Song? 

Comments

[DAVID]

I think the Melissa Etheridge song from the Al Gore movie was one of the few instances a documentary got 2 nominations

[teppo2]

Or last year with Glen Campbell.

[/3rtful]

The worst thing about last year's Oscars was the shutout of Life Itself. Roger Ebert was beautiful.

[John T]

Keep Lady Gaga away from the Oscars...and film/TV in general.

[KBJr]

"Best of Enemies" was robbed.

[bettes streep]

JohnT - are you kidding me? Lady Gaga was sensational at last years Oscars telecast. And she is impressive on American Horror Story - Hotel.

I'll love to see her perform again at next years Oscars - and as the article states , a few documentaries have been nominated for original song the past few years.

[Derreck.]

I was NOT a fan of Gaga at all until the Cheek to Cheek era and the culmination of that at the Oscars where I way beyond enchanted. I don't even like The Sound of Music and I got chills.

Anyways, back on topic. I'm totally rooting for Amy because that was one of the best things i've seen this year. Not a single moment where I was completely enthralled with what was happening onscreen. Especially all the bits with Tony Bennett or the surprise sadness immediately after her Grammy win.

[Glenn Dunks]

LIFE ITSELF was... not great.