Podcast Pt 2: Oscar Predix Finale
Wednesday, February 18, 2015 at 11:18PM 
In case you missed part one of this finale, that's here. Let's wrap up our final pre-Oscar prediction discussions: Joe pretends he's not an Inherent Vice fan, Nick sadistically hopes Imitation Game "gets Up in the Aired", and Nathaniel goes full blurb whore on Mr Turner.
Oscar Prediction Finale Pt 2
41 Minutes
00:01 -Production Design & Costume Design. Into the Woods spurs dark memories and self parody. But can Grand Budapest actually win both and will Wes Anderson career tribute be the cause?
08:40 -Cinematography. Beautiful across the board
13:12 -Screenplays. Are these the two most difficult categories to predict? Consolation prizes, career tributes, or Best Picture heat?
21:45 -Acting Races. Whose running second behind Julianne Moore?
27:32 -Best Director & Best Picture. Who would we vote for and what about the Academy: will it be Richard Linklater and Boyhood or Alejandro G Inarritu and Birdman or some combo thereof. Either way long-standing theories of everything get disproven and the Academy gets dinged.
36:10 -Exit Game: Who would last year's winners vote for? We read the minds of Blanchett, McConaughey, Leto, and Nyong'o.
40:00 -Boyman Goodbye!
Supplemental Material for this Podcast:
Prediction Finale Part 1
Nick's Top Ten List (in progress)
Joe Reid ranks all 60 Oscar nominated films
Please to enjoy and continue the golden conversation in the comments. You can listen at the bottom of the post or download from iTunes.
Reader Comments (24)
Great podcast. Glad to hear I'm not the only one at a loss making predictions this year. I had Boyhood for best picture, but then realized I only had it one other place (supp. actress), and that just didn't make sense. So I either have to figure out where else it might win (editing? screenplay?) or face the likelihood it isn't getting the big prize this year.
Also: Nick's support of American Sniper completely baffles me. Officially.
Joe Reid's list is great. 4 BP nominees in the bottom 10, and "Still Alice" up at #21. Gotta love that.
SanFran -- No matter how i work out my predictions I have either Birdman or Boyhood winning only 2 which hasn't happened since 1952. Best Pictures usually win 3 or more.
Nathaniel: 1952! That puts Boyhood or Birdman in the same camp as the notorious Greatest Show on Earth. Say it isn't so.
My favourites so far.....
Best Picture: The Grand Budapest Hotel
Best Director: Wes Anderson
Best Actor: Eddie Redmayne
Best Actress: Marion Cotillard (but if I was a voter, I'd totally vote for Moore. Cotillard already has an oscar and I hate that oscar)
Best Supporting Actor: Ethan Hawke
Best Supporting Actress: Laura Dern
I totally think The Grand Budapest Hotel can win.
Ugh - that likely Imitation Game screenplay win will haunt me (but, hey, I'm pretty thrilled with the way the rest of the categories are shaking out). And you may be right that having a memorable line is part of the win, but NOBODY can ever get the line right when trying to say it, because it's an impossible line of dialogue.
San Fran -- the way i've explained this to myself is that i'm bound to get something wrong. If BOYHOOD wins BEST PIC & SUPPORTING ACTRESS (as i'm predicting) it probably also steals editing from Whiplash or Director from Inarritu
if BIRDMAN wins BEST DIR & CINEMATOGRAPHY (as I'm predicting) that it probably also wins steals Screenplay from Budapest or Pic from Boyhood or Sound from American Sniper)
I HAVE NO IDEA AND I LOVE IT.
^ I'm pretty much resigned to getting a LOT wrong this year. It's gotten to the point where I'm even doubting the so-called locks.
My favorite part of the season has come! The new brutally honest Oscar ballot from the Hollywood Reporter. The woman they interviewed is godawful - and she voted for Imitation Game for picture and screenplay. I know not every voter is like her but some of her reasoning is troubling.
Ryan -- and that woman is a member of the "PR branch" of the Academy, which shouldn't even exist.
Ryan: I too love those brutal honest Oscar ballots from THR, but it's a like being a political idealist and then finding out that people vote for a President that they want to have a beer with. To say it's "troubling" is an understatement.
Joe Reid: I love your #8 ranking of "Begin Again" on your list of 60. John Carney may have received slightly more critical acclaim for "Once" but "Begin Again" has made way more money. Weinstein paid $7 million for Begin Again and it has pulled in $63 million worldwide, (27 million in S.Korea alone). Once made 9 million. In interviews John Carney has been sounding very happy. Commercial success trumps Oscar success every time. Just thought that might cheer you up.
Thanks for a lively podcast.
@Ryan--She is fun, isn't she? How many other voters are as cracked? I love that she is voting for Arquette because she didn't get her face "done" for 12 years. Only in LA LA land.
(I love that series too. It explains so much about how Hollywood works.)
Brutally Honest Academy Member: "If the movie [Selma] had been directed by a 60-year-old white male, I don't think that people would have been carrying on about it to the level that they were."
That's true, because he would have been nominated for Best Director. (rimshot)
One correction Nathaniel, Joanna Newsom's character in Inherent Vice is definitely in the book, just re-appropriated. The narrator is third person in the book. The choice for her as narrator is a departure, but I actually think pretty smart (how many noirs or detective fiction films have female narrators?) and plays into the labyrinthine, sun hangover that the film is crafted as by having the airiest character of all in the book literally embody that.
Off my soap box. It doesn't have a chance.
I wish Cooper also had a chance, but even I'm losing faith in that and I always brought up the Adrien Brody situation to cite.
I get Nick being on American Sniper. Classicism done right and I like Cooper as Kyle the way I like Hopkins as Nixon or Fonda as Lincoln. Probably not completely accurate of the person but playing with a legend while also doing a great character study.
That THR ballot list was so contradictory, in addition to being awful. She couldn't identify Morten Tyldum in a room but strategically voting for his film because it's.... most memorable? And anybody who feels bad for Harvey must be the devil or works for The Weinstein Company. Or both.
I read that that she was dissing Harvey.
(After she saw Still Alice) "This [best actress race] is over. Four other women are going to have to get dressed and go to 5,000 dinners knowing they have no chance."
What I like about that Brutally Honest voter is that she abstained over Foreign Language because she hadn't seen enough of them. I preferred it when you had to prove you had seen all 5 nominees before you could vote.
My biggest fear is that Into the Wood wins something. It could happen. Let's not forget that Lincoln won over Anna Karenina not long ago.
Nathaniel, I'm disappointed. You should know Milena's Ocars by heart!
That brutally honest voter did have some good choices, even if her reasoning behind it is ridiculous (like Patricia Arquette).
Thanks for keep doing these, guys :)
Also, The Comeback reference!
This was an absolute delight! Thanks, guys. I just read NIck's reviews of Selma and AS on his Top Ten List, and both were right on the money. Loved the line about The Judge: 12 years in the making. HA
I don't think we've ever had a Best Picture race this close...YES. And both films represent a whole new approach to making movies.
I'm so pumped about the Best Song performances this year I don't have time to grouse about Pale Imitation's nominations. Guess I'll have to make time.
I'm afraid that I don't see the logic in a Boyhood/Iñárritu split. It would seem to me that if you're going to award Boyhood in Best Picture, you'd almost have to recognize Linklater's vision for the project.
On the other hand, I could totally see someone voting for Birdman but also recognizing the balls Linklater had to get his project off the ground.
When we've had splits, the one that seemed like a greater "feat" has been the one recognized. Even if Iñárritu has more of a directorial flourish, I would think Boyhood takes the "directorial feat" title.
As for other things, I think people should refrain from trying to scrounge up 3+ wins for their predicted Best Picture winner. Anomalies happen and this has certainly been a trend-breaking year.
I believe the only movie that won only Best Picture is Grand Hotel. Have there been any Best Pictures with only one other award?
brookebsoy - yes. MUTINY ON THE BOUNTY, BROADWAY MELODY also only won one prize. but it hasn't happened since 1935 and back then there weren't as many categories