Open Thread (feat. The Gurus of Gold.)
Friday, August 28, 2015 at 1:15PM 
How are you feeling about the forthcoming Oscar race? Do you think we've seen several prime contenders or mostly none at all? When will you feel it's truly begun?
David Poland at Movie City News just asked the Gurus of Gold (including yours truly) to rank the forthcoming Oscar races in three different categories: widely seen already / playing the festivals / opening late in the year. You can see the charts here. If you trust "the wisdom of crowds" as it were, Carol, Inside Out, and Mad Max Fury Road are in the best positions thus far of movies that have already screened. This confuses me a bit as Carol's reviews in Cannes felt more admiring than deeply in love which can be but is not always a problem with the Academy. Plus it'll have to survive the current turmoil at the Weinstein Company. Inside Out, while a true return to form, still has to deal with the fact that it's an animated movie from a studio that has been terrifically well rewarded already that they won't feel they owe a single thing to, in a time frame in which "wow, animated movies can be just as good as live action movies!" is no longer a revelatory angle but just a "duh!" part of the landscape, and whose future slate does not suggest that it's a return to form for good since the upcoming slate is largely sequels. And though I love Mad Max: Fury Road as much as anyone -- I'll be very surprised if it doesn't make my top ten -- I'm still having trouble imagining it as a true player. The fourth film in a long dead franchise that they never cared about before (zero nominations) in a genre they don't care about (apocalyptic sci-fi) from a director who has remained an outsider by choice (George Miller) starring actors they probably like but are inarguably not obsessed with, whose pleasures often focus on practical effects and stunts (for which Oscar has no category). I'm trying to find the Oscar hook beyond ecstatic reviews (which several other movies will also have by years end as that's how the season always goes) but if there is one it's invisible! I'm more bullish on Youth and Brooklyn, largely because they seem more traditional in terms of Oscar appeal for reasons involving both topics and tone.
P.S. #1 Toronto is less than two weeks away. Eep!
P.S. #2 Are you joining us for Hit Me With Your Best Shot - Mad Max: Fury Road? That's Monday night, September 7th! I'll try not to choose the shot above which filled me with wild shameless feminist glee in the movie theater... but I might. We'll see.
P.S. #3 More on Oscar's Foreign Language Film race very soon but watch out for Germany. They've just selected Labyrinth of Lies and, as you may recall from last year's TIFF write-ups, it's quite good. And Oscar friendly, too. It's a Holocaust movie that doesn't feel like 'just another Holocaust movie' because it's coming at the topic from a far less overworked angle, as its about a lawyer investigating unpunished war crimes in the 1960s.
Reader Comments (22)
Fury Road was over hyped ruining the actual pleasures of the movie. I also had the misfortune of seeing it in 3-D---where everything looked smaller in comparison to a standard 2-D presentation. Theron as magnificent as she usually is had too small a role to consider a substantial contender for Best Actress. The field is so crowded this season you will not have to worry about complaints it is a weak year for the category. If they choose to ignore Streep in both categories we'll all have real reason to celebrate this Oscar slate.
Just like I don't shop for Christmas until after Thanksgiving, I don't talk Oscar until after Labor Day.
Still haven't seen anything this year that rises to the level of Oscar consideration. There have been good films but still waiting. Talk to me after September.
I'm pretty sure that Harvey is just strategically hoarding his money/resources and will give Carol as much attention as he has other contenders in less business-fraught years. I'm not worried about that movie.
Random Oscar-related thought: I noticed that Kate Winslet Vulture interview you linked to for the Jobs movie and another interview with her in Entertainment Weekly and wondered if she (strangely) would be the promotional face for that film. I thought that was possibly because there wasn't much confidence in Fassbender's performance or promotional willingness.
But that movie is front and center in the new Time magazine Fall Arts Preview, with Fass's mug occupying quite a bit of space. Boyle, Sorkin, MF all interviewed by Lev Grossman, a journalist who had interviewed the real Jobs. Universal is fairly notorious for poor campaigns, but looks like with Rudin they'll be giving that one a hard push.
Winslet just seems a sure bet even this early.
I still think Inside Out's biggest hurdle is not that it is animated but that its protagonist is female. As you've pointed out lots of times over the years, Oscar is bullish about "women's pictures," and if the baloney I have read about the movie's "reverse sexism" is indicative of the broader opinion, then it is probably out of the running for Best Picture. The only movie that's come out thus far that I could see sneaking into the shortlist is Straight Outta Compton.
There's no much I'm excited by this year in terms of Oscar pictures. At TIFF this year, I'm checking out a lot more foreign/doc/smalllll films.
Big budget action and animation have been the story of the movie year for me thus far.
Of Oscar pictures, I am most excited by Danish Girl, Youth, Brooklyn and Carol. My expectations aren't high for Freeheld or Stonewall but nice to see so many bigger LGBT pictures this year.
I agree with you about Inside Out and Mad Max. Inside Out is my fave so far this year but the years Up and Toy Story 3 were nominated, there were an assured 10 nominees. This year, the academy only has to check off 5 choices. I doubt Inside Out will make it on that voting structure. I wonder if Good DInosaur will steal the momentum by Fall.
I feel Mad Max is definitely in the running for technical awards but no way it'll get a Best Picture nom. The most hope I can hold is for Director and Actress. And this disappoints me to say since it IS my favorite narrative film of the year so far. Inside Out has more of a shot at Best Picture than Max, which is fine. Inside Out was great!
Also Eddie Redmayne for The Danish Girl is the closest I've heard so far for a runner for Best Actor.
Cannes reactions to Carol were definitely more as you describe, but reactions stateside this week seem considerably more rapturous. If that holds, it will probably become the default critical favorite, which is usually enough to vault a film into contention.
Inside Out stands a coin flip's chance for best picture, but DIsney will have to work hard for it. A screenplay nomination seems like a no brainer.
Mad Max seems like a pipe dream for Best Picture, but I could easily see it being a major presence in below the line categories.
Really? I'm very surprised you guys aren't even close to swayed to Straight Outta Compton being pretty much a done deal for a slot. It has the reviews (90% on RT), it has the appropriate subject (music biography) AND it has the massive box office ($119 million and growing). Even with the primarily black cast, those three factors SHOULD add up to a 1s-3s profile. Let's run down the rest of the contenders:
Carol (Todd Haynes. Means you should be doubting enough to put it below Straight Outta Compton.)
Inside Out: Yeah, I actually do believe this. Sorry. Only movie that realistically makes sense positioned above Straight Outta Compton.
Mad Max: Fury Road: I'm optimistic, but it could still not happen and, no, it shouldn't be above Straight Outta Compton.
Youth: Oscar likes 'em old, but rarely THIS old and Best Foreign Language Film is pretty much the least reliable possible barometer of Oscar interest in a specific auteur. Shouldn't be above Straight Outta Compton.
Brooklyn: Really? The last thing I can identify as symbolically even a little close to this (warm non-biographical romantic drama with a female lead) is Sense and Sensibility. Oscar's general tastes DO change, even if they're sometimes slow at betraying it and, some things never go out of fashion, but I'd believe this when I saw it. Shouldn't be above Straight Outta Compton.
Sicario: Expect torches and pitchforks if this happens. Seriously: There are times and places for "morally compromised law enforcement" movies, but I keep an eye on the progressive stream and right NOW the progressive stream (which, though not ALL of Hollywood, is a higher enough proportion) wants to see law enforcement as snarling racist monsters. Because that reflects the big problems. Should't be above Straight Outta Compton.
Love and Mercy: Same level of reviews as Compton, similar subject to Compton (even sharing the same guy in pretty much the same role)...a tenth of the gross. I mean, unless you think Brian Wilson's skin colour is actually enough of an advantage to offset that level of gross difference. Shouldn't be above Straight Outta Compton.
Ex Machina: Asimov-esque sci-fi with a $25 million gross. (Alienating genre for them and low gross, in spite of the reviews.) Shouldn't be above Straight Outta Compton.
Everest: Really? A disaster movie over a hit music bio? Now I know you're INSANE.
I don't care about Oscar (I know I know, sacrilegious thing to say on this site. )
But I'll just say:
-Mad Max: Fury Road is completely overrated, and Theron was really underwhelming. That movie and Theron shouldn't be nominated for anything. Period.
-The Danish Girl will be nominated in 11 categories - we all know what turns old Oscar on, right?
-Southpaw was terrible, it's definitely no The Fighter, but since Weinstein is at the helm, I'm sure Gyllenhaal will get a nom. even though he doesn't deserve one, not for this movie.
McAdams, though, really surprised me. She gave a GREAT performance.
- Carol looks amazing, can't wait to see it. Oscar or no Oscar, who cares? I'm sure it's a masterpiece.
Volvagia -- you really should think twice about calling pundits with good track records INSANE when you are the one who is always trying to convince us that things like Chris Pratt for Best Actor or Scott Pilgrim is going to be taken seriously for prizes or Guardians of the Galaxy are going to get best picture nominations.
anyway. as for straight outta compton, we'll see. I'm just trying to see what the appeal would be for voters. I only have anecdotal evidence from the various luncheons and dinners i attend each year but even though they're diversifying it's still a largely older community and I jut can't see them being nostalgic for that era of hip hop -- the way todays like 30 and 40somethings might be -- enough to get them to watch it or think of it as something they want to rubber stamp as "Best" -- especially with no stars they're familiar with and a director that's largely made mainstream urban pictures that haven't exactly made him a household name. As for the timeliness of the topic. that will help but it didn't push SELMA into major across the board play (despite it being *extremely* oscar friendly in tone and craft and period and performances ) or help FRUITVALE STATION at all.
all that said you may have a point about BROOKLYN ;)
Dusty -- people are calling INSIDE OUT reverse sexist? whaaaaa? glad i missed that article wherever it was.
Roark -- yeah i think INSIDE OUT has a good shot at screenplay
Kate -- let's hope so. but i remember the way they completely flubbed I'M NOT THERE's release so i do kinda worry. I think Focus is a better fit for Todd Haynes (they did a great job with Far From Heaven) so i wish he'd go back to them.
Nathaniel, doesn't the (stupidly) expanded 5-10 slate practically guarantee Inside Out a nomination like Up and Toy Story 3? I mean...was anyone really expecting Up to land a Best Picture nomination and did it really have more support than Inside Out?
Straight Outta Compton had a successful Academy screening. The only recognition I want for the movie is a Best Supporting Actor nod for Jason Mitchell as Easy E.
Brazil will take the award for Foreign sending 'The Second Mother'. just saying
/3rtful -- Phantom of the Opera also had a successful Academy screening :). We hear this all the time. Never assume there aren't agendas in the reportage unless people were conducting polls at the exit signs (they don't)... no one really knows.
I like that the Gurus have divided it into seen/ not yet seen. That keeps the early ones in the conversation, and maybe lessens the hype and fall of the unseen ones.
There's a delicious period before prognosticators get into full swing, when we look forward to all kinds of movies. But I'm always a little taken aback by how Prom King &Queen the unseen choices are (I want "Carrie" to be prom queen!)
If I was looking for the perfect zeitgeist movie for the year, I'd pick the (unseen) "In Jackson Heights", directed by Frederick Wiseman. One of the greatest American directors, who has illuminated American life for decades, considering how a diverse population can and does live together. Best Picture, Best Director.
By this time last year we'd had Boyhood and The Grand Budapest Hotel, which turned out to be two of the strongest Oscar players (in Boyhood's case, sadly not as strongly as I'd have liked when it came to the wins). This year, I can't think of anything that's already been released that's on a par with either of them. Of the above-mentioned films, the ones I'm most persuaded by (though I haven't seen them yet) are Inside Out (for the reason Jase gives) and Straight Outta Compton (for the reasons Volvagia gives, though I heed Nathaniel's response).
Also, as a Bond and Star Wars fan, at this point in the year I'm just hopeful for two things: that Spectre and Episode VII are both very good, and, in terms of Oscar, that they can both get some recognition if they deserve it.
I didn't think Mad Max: Wacky Races was as good as everyone said but I hope that it gets nommed for it's brilliant Score.
Up has the Wall-E afterglow/mea culpa and perhaps also some mea culpa for Shrek over Monster's Inc.
I think Straight Outta Compton is comparable to 8 Mile. A critically acclaimed (8 Mile's metascore is actually higher) hit in a topic that the Academy is cold on. Yes, they are musical biopics, but we need not be coy when looking at academy and hip hop. Of course, Compton is more successful (although adjusted for inflation, probably only by $20 million), but 8 Mile has the "the director of LA Confidential" card. Even considering more available slots, I think it will only be in play if many of the upcoming titles disappoint.
Wow. I thought I was very much alone on here in thinking Mad Max: Fury Road was overrated. It's certainly a good film - and the technical aspects should be honored - but overall, I didn't connect with the characters and the story kind of meanders on. Anyway, unless The Force Awakens explodes both critically (I'm talking LOTR-level reviews) and commercially (on par with Jurassic World, Titanic and Avatar), I think Inside Out will be the only top grosser to be a serious contender for Best Picture. It just comes down to how much they liked "Inside Out".
Clearly the academy can like a Pixar film enough to give it Best Picture nod; the reviews are there; Disney could use the "Return To Form" narrative; and it's made enough money to not be ignored. Mad Max, on the other hand, wasn't a huge hit and post-apocalyptic sci-fi isn't something they get weak in the knees over.
As for Straight Outta Compton; while I think the comparisons to Selma and Fruitvale Station are a little off (Selma's campaign was botched and Fruitvale Station didn't have a huge push, while Universal will have plenty of time to push SOC hard), I just can't imagine this type of film resonating with the academy in any major way.
interesting that between the 2 female fronted 50s love stories you choose the one from the less known director and the one that hasn't received as much critical praise.