Screenplay Shake Up Means New Predictions
Wednesday, December 14, 2016 at 4:29PM 
We warned everyone to not "lock" up any screenplay predictions too early, especially when the provenance of a screenplay is confusing, and our warnings were not in vain. The Academy has rejected the campaigns of Loving and Moonlight as "Originals" and they have been moved to the "Adapted" category. Both had made no secret that they were inspired by other works, despite their Original campaigns. Loving is partially based on the documentary The Loving Story (2011) and Moonlight on an unproduced play (of sorts -- though now the playwright is saying it never was intended as a play... which makes the situation yet more confusing) called "In Moonlight Black Boys Look Blue". Regardless, the murkiness was enough for the Academy to cry foul on their preferred Original designations. (If only the Academy's acting branch would play this kind of interference when obviously lead acting roles like Rooney Mara in Carol or Hugh Grant in Florence Foster Jenkins or dozens of others in recent years claimed "supporting" designation.)
Prior to this Academy ruling, the Original Screenplay competition looked enormously competitive with a nail-biting battle between Manchester by the Sea and Moonlight for the gold. Now both movies -- arguably the two biggest critical darlings of the year -- have a clearer shot at a win but it does make the competition for the other four nominations in each category more exciting and open. Both charts have been updated accordingly. Which screenplays do you think benefit from this ruling?
Reader Comments (23)
The playwright of "Moonlight" must be frustrated. If it had been designated original then presumably he would have got a nomination (for his 'story by' credit) but now he will get nothing.
May the Academy honor the best Philip Roth adaptation ever brought to screen and nominate "Indignation."
I think Jackie (which was on the fence) and The Lobster (kind of an outside chance) will fill the two open slots.joining Manchester by the Sea, La La Land and Hell or High Water
Yeah, I thought it was odd to call Moonlight original, even if the play was unproduced.
Still hoping to god that the screenplays of ARRIVAL and JACKIE got nominated.
Still hoping to god that the screenplays of ARRIVAL and JACKIE got nominated.
The Jack: I think, especially in terms of Moonlight, the Academy's doing this in part because something no prognosticator is predicting is actually much higher than typically thought, probably Deadpool and/or Love & Friendship. Even as a collective, screenwriters are different than critics. Example: In spite of not really being mentioned in Screenplay nominations honouring the best of 2009, In the Loop was a nominee that year. Deadpool is closer to that kind of nomination. My view of the field now:
Original:
1. Manchester by the Sea
2. Hell or High Water
3. 20th Century Women
4. La La Land
5. Zootopia (AFI Top 10. That'll help A LOT more than you're currently thinking.)
6. Jackie
7. Toni Erdmann
8. The Lobster (This is a critics screenplay (such that I get the CCA nom), not a screenwriters one. And since it's screenwriters who actually vote...)
9. Captain Fantastic
10. Hail Caesar!
Adapted:
1. Moonlight
2. Fences
3. Arrival
4. Silence
5. Loving
6. Love & Friendship
7. Deadpool
8. Lion
9. Sully
10. Hidden Figures (Lion and Hidden Figures top 5? Um...no. ACTORS love good inspirational dramas (they're good testing grounds for pushing against and elevating material), but they're not really screenplay plays. See also: 2009.)
ken s: Screenwriters going for The Lobster? I hope not. It's a half-measure of a movie, not realizing it either needed to change the punishment this society enacts to EVERYONE becoming lobsters after failing and changing the title to Lobsters (turning it into a full-on Waiting for Godot/Rhinoceros level cohesive absurdist metaphor, in this case on the flaws in the life-long marriage idea) or ask for a higher budget and go full on World of Mad Science on us. Yes, I know the former was probably closer to what they ACTUALLY wanted to do/could afford, but...why didn't they just do that? Scrub the script to reflect that change and then shoot the thing. As is, it's a mess that seems to want you to believe this could happen without being in the kind of world where it actually could.
Jonathan: I don't think writers have quite the level of hard-on for Roth that they do for Pynchon. The public in general likes Roth more, yes, but writers were never going to drop everything to nominate an adaptation of him, like they did for the Pynchon adaptation Inherent Vice, even if that Roth adaptation WAS the best one yet made.
Craver: Arrival is safe. Jackie's probably dead in the water. Yes, I know I have it sixth, but if Jackie is sixth, it's a WIDE sixth. More of the praise is going toward Portman and Larrain than, strictly, the script.
Volvagia: I don't like The Lobster much either, it just seems to be winning lots of awards. My main gripe about these category changes is that it pretty much kills off The Handmaiden's already slim chances of sneaking into the Adapted nominees.
If the Academy branch of actors resembles anything like tha SAGs, then all the punditry should stay home:) They're the largest branch and capable of real turds on the final outcome. Hopefully. the screenwriters stay away of things like Nocturnal Animals or Girl on The Train. I'm confident they have far better taste, collectively.
ken s: The Lobster, and The Handmaiden, have a lot of respect from critics and critics groups, yes. But, as I said, critics groups are not screenwriters. There can and will be overlap, sure, but I mentioned 2009. NO ONE could have really predicted In the Loop happening in Adapted, and, until this double switch, Adapted this year looked about as weak as 2009. Not that it'll wind up as spectacular as 2007 or 2015 did, but more in line with a 2010 or 2013 than 2009 or 2014 as it seemed to be heading.
Seems to me as though the biggest beneficiary here is La La Land, which probably (but not definitely) would have still made the lineup, and is all but guaranteed a spot now. Looking at all the different categories the film can realistically place - pretty much every one, save for Supporting acting and maybe two or three of the techs - it's hard to envision any other film surpassing it in overall nominations.
Paul - Agreed. Always thought it was weird to be in Original Screenplay when based off of (adapted, in other words) from the play
Original
Manchester by the sea
Captain Fantastic
La La Land
Jackie
Hell or high water (not with my vote. I don't understand the hype arround this GOOD movie that are saying is SUBERB! No fucking way!)
Runner-up: Toni Erdmann, Aquarius, other Foreign
Adapted
Silence
Moonlight
Arrival
Fences (still thinking is not that good movie, but a vehicle for awards. U all know what I mean!)
Loving
Runner-up: Love & Friendship, Elle, The Salesman, other foreign.
Please: Tom Ford at home. God, please!
"Fences (still thinking is not that good movie, but a vehicle for awards. U all know what I mean!"
The more I think about it, the worst it gets. It's a terrible movie. Sorry, folks, you don't call this cimema. This is acting. A LOT OF ACTING. Period.
I felt trapped in that backyard for two hourse. Sheez.
Original: Who's helped? Everyone.
Manchester by the Sea has a clear lead to win. But this makes it easier for La La Land, The Lobster, Zootopia, 20th Century Women, Hell and High Water, etc.
Adapted: Only Loving is helped and Moonllight, of course, for winning purposes. But Elle and The Handmaiden are definitely hurt. So is Arrival and Silence.
I will do a cartwheel if Love and Friendship is nominated. It's the sharpest, slickest, wittiest script this year...I haven't seen Lion or Hidden Figures yet, but come on. Whit Stillman was nominated before for Metropolitan so at least they are familiar with his work.
The writers' branch has thrown some curveballs in the past to well-deserved nominees (Margin Call, In the Loop, Amour, Lars and the Real Girl) so perhaps they'll do the same this year. I'm hoping for a Jackie nomination, but I'm not confident. I really do think, however, that The Lobster is becoming more and more probable as an Original Screenplay nominee.
aaron -- uff. i dare not hope now. I thought it was nearly locked it was so high quality but all the awards groups are ignoring it (Love & Friendship). so sad.
I'm glad they're recognizing the world that documentary films play in the work of more traditional narrative features. This is obviously a rare case since Nichols has actively said he used the documentary as a guide - and the tones of the two films are identical - but still nice to see.
And, yeah, Manchester probably just won the Oscar. I'm feeling for original Manchester, Hell or High, Captain Fantastic, The Lobster and La La Land.
Love and Friendship is so writery and fun and witty. It has to be nominated.
Ok, movies that need some love NOW:
(Screewriters, look outside the box!)
Toni Erdmann (Maren Ade is an original genius; so much to unpack here)
David Birke's laser screenplay for Elle
Love & Friendship (a comedic marvel; best time I had with an adaptation from Jane Austen since Sense & Sensibility)
Neruda's screenplay (inventive!)
Din't see La La Land, yet. I don't think Chazelle's screenplays are his forte.Too many contrievances in Whiplash. Hope I'm wrong on the new one!
What else? Is it mandatory to be an US release?
This is definitely the right thing for Loving - although (I complain about this every year) real-life stories should be considered adapted, whether or not there's a documentary that they can point to. I'm now curious as to how "Milk" didn't get moved.
Guest: I'd think so many true life stories are made every year, because they are actor catnip, that Screenplay judgment should divide in three. Original Screenplay, True Story Screenplay and Adapted Screenplay. Let's see how that would probably affect last year and this year:
2015 Original:
Inside Out
Ex Machina
The Hateful Eight
Sicario
Spy
2015 True Story:
Spotlight
Bridge of Spies
Straight Outta Compton
The Big Short
The Revenant
2015 Adapted:
Brooklyn
Carol
The Martian
Room
Creed
2016 Original:
Manchester by the Sea
Hell or High Water
20th Century Women
La La Land
Zootopia
2016 True Story:
Loving
Sully
Hidden Figures
Lion
Jackie
2016 Adapted:
Fences
Moonlight
Arrival
Silence
Deadpool/Love & Friendship