Best Picture... Settled Contenders or Confusing Vacuum at Top?
Wednesday, October 25, 2017 at 8:37PM Nathaniel R
In the absence of a Best Picture frontrunner, something I think we all can agree on at this particular juncture in time, does that mean anything could happen with Best Picture nominations? OR does that mean the Best Picture competition is fairly settled but that the films (i.e. campaigns) have yet to sort out who is the most formidable?
I'd argue, perhaps foolishly, that it's the latter. I see a fairly clear situation ahead where these seven films (and maybe only these seven) are going to be nominated. A winner will emerge but none have yet made a clear case that they're "the one".
Call Me By Your Name | Darkest Hour | Dunkirk
Get Out | Mudbound | The Shape of Water
Three Billboards outside Ebbing, Missouri
Since Academy rules allow for 5-10 nominees in a given year in the top category and since we've usually seen the final size of the list land at 8 or 9 that leaves us with only one or two super competitive slots. With rumors (take 'em or leave 'em since it's only hearsay) starting to swirl that the four big remaining unseen films (Phantom Thread, Greatest Showman, The Post, All the Money in the World) aren't all that, perhaps we know the field fully? Methinks The Florida Project (a little picture that could), I Tonya (*shudder* but easy to picture for counterprogramming vote which also helped it at serious festivals) and Last Flag Flying (meh but easy to picture as the #1 choice for the manly side of Oscar voting) are next in line should there be enough room for them. It's tough to say but there are several films with pockets of support that are in play for one of those coveted spots if the precursors and media are especially kind to them in the next month or two -- yes, even Wonder Woman.
P.S. Comedy at the Globes?
The comedy category is as wide as the Grand Canyon IF a number of the 'could go either way' films choose drama instead. Three Billboards, rumored to be choosing drama for example, is basically a tragicomedy so you can call it either safely! Films that could theoretically be up for COMEDY OR MUSICAL at the Globes (should they choose to campaign this way) are...
Baby Driver | Battle of the Sexes | Beauty & The Beast
The Big Sick | Disaster Artist | Downsizing
Get Out ??? | Girls Trip | Greatest Showman
Guardians of Galaxy vol 2 | I Tonya | Lady Bird
Last Flag Flying ??? | Victoria and Abdul
And theoretically that high profile boost could really help them. As would a Producers Guild or SAG shoutout. How do you think this will all pan out?
UPDATED OSCAR CHARTS ARE HERE and GURUS OF GOLD ALSO UPDATED
Reader Comments (46)
The only one of your 7 I have doubts about is MUDBOUND. Remember when BEASTS OF NO NATION got award nominations here and there but Oscar just wasn't ready to go there? Nominations for Netflix *will* happen but this year may be too soon.
Don't rule out THE BIG SICK for Best Picture either - other Amazon contenders are falling over and this has grossed almost as much as MANCHESTER BY THE SEA. Not bad in a year when indie and prestige contenders are struggling at the box office.
I also think THE FLORIDA PROJECT and/or LADY BIRD could make Best Picture on a wave of critical support and critics' prizes.
Nat,
Question...where are these rumors coming from and where do I find the "statements" so to speak?
If nobody besides those working on them have seen them then how is there any buzz, good or bad, at all? Who are these people spreading the rumors. Just curious.
What if Star Wars trully delivers?
Isn't Get Out being submitted as Comedy for the Globes? I kept seeing people putting Kaluuya in their Best Actor predictions for that category. Sure would be interesting to see how that pans out.
Last Flag Flying is a comedy? It seems so dour.
I agree with Steve G., the one I'm starting to have doubts about is Mudbound...it may prove to do better than Beasts of No Nation (I think Adapted Screenplay - which is a weak category - and maybe supporting actress or actor is possible), but I don't know if picture or director is in the cards this year.
Who is saying The Post is bad? There's not even a trailer for it yet. That's the late release I could see gaining passion votes. It's Spielberg + Streep + Hanks, and it's culturally/socially/politically IMPORTANT.
Are we sure Downsizing is going to completely bomb with the Academy? I feel like everyone underestimates Alexander Payne. No one was screaming with joy and fervor for Nebraska, yet it got pretty much every major nomination, including a surprise director nomination.
I Tonya, The Florida Project, and Lady Bird seem like the films that could generate enough passionate enthusiasm to get a best picture nomination, as well as a few other nominations.
I'd swap out Mudbound for The Post but everything else on your list look like locks to me.
I think "Spider-Man: Homecoming" and "Thor: Ragnarok" would be ahead of "Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2" in terms of a possible Musical/Comedy nomination for a Marvel film (which probably won't happen).
Oh no, "Beauty and the Beast" is totally going to get a Globes nom for best picture. How depressing.
Aaron -- i think the rumors are mostly hearsay... but you hear stuff at industry events and festivals and such. You never really know who is spreading it and whether or not to believe it.
ON COMEDY PLACEMENT it's possilbe that various contenders could choose to be called dramas or comedies and we wont' know for awhile. Studios sometimes change their minds and the Globes CAN override their decisions. The Globes aren't SAG which by their rules are not allowed to go against the studio campaigns (thus insuring category fraud when studios campaign that way in terms of lead players in supporting).
Dave S -- i know I just realized this while typing up the list. It's so aggravating because it's not good but you know it'll get one of those nods. The question is whether or not BOTH musicals (the other being THE GREATEST SHOWMAN) will both be nominated regardless of whether or not they deserve to be.
The comedy/ musical categories at the Globes are fun, for stretching out the acting categories in unexpected ways.
I'd hope for Harry Dean Stanton in "Lucky" to be recognized.
Or how about Mark Ruffalo for Best Actor, Comedy, for Thor:Ragnarok?
I'm interested to see how Blade Runner fares with the Oscars. I also realllly hope Lady Bird gets love. Right now, I truly think Get Out is on the rise. Best Actor feels so thin - I'm beginning to think Kaluuya gets a nomination.
I know it sounds far-fetched but I can so see Get Out surging ahead with critics wins, top 10 mentions and discussion pieces. Ending up as one of the wildest and unexpected winners ever. Otherwise I'd say Dunkirk wins by default.
Are you really still convinced of a Winslet nom?! - did you not see the trailer!
Test screening for The Post will happen soon, then we'll know because this is the last one among the top contenders. I will believe the buzz after that , good or bad, but not now since absolutely no one has seen it.
How on earth is Get Out a comedy??? It's a thriller
Love the discussion. Lady Bird and The Big Sick are definite BP threats in my book, and I'm curious what you're hearing about The Post. I'm surprised you're so high on Mudbound - are we sure Netflix has a slam dunk BP nod?
I never thought of Frances McDormand as a two-time Oscar winner. Reading certain comments it seems it could happen. Still, I cannot believe they're not releasing the Glenn Close movie this year and I'm going to complain about it until February.
Why do you keep holding onto the director from MUDBOUND? Not shading you, I'm just curious to know.
As far as there not being a frontrunner, does that open the door for yet another Best Picture / Best Director split, with NOLAN getting the "overdue" votes in Director? I don't necessarily see it happening but would love to hear your thoughts!
One last question: what have been your thoughts on the year overall? It seems like it's been kinda ... meh.
With the start of award season we will see the frontrunner who is going to be probably
Call me by your name (Moonlight of this year)
or
The Post (Spotligh of this year)
Dunkirk and The Shape of Water will be the choices #2 or #3 of the ballots of great part of academy members.
My guess as the Best Pictures nominees now would be:
Call me by your name
The Post
Dunkirk
The Shape of Water
Darkest Hour
+ This movies if the big four are not great:
Hostiles (the Hacksaw Ridge of the year)
The Florida Project
Lady Bird
Coco (I know! I know! But the hype could be great and it is Pixar + foreign culture)
+ This movies if the big four are great
All the money in the world
The Greatest Showman
Phantom Thread
Hey Nathaniel: what is the buzz on Phantom Thread that you have heard?
I never thought of Frances McDormand as a two-time Oscar winner.
I resent her being one twice for Best Actress. You're primarily a supporting actress / character actor. All of your major triple crown prizes are leads! And the lead placement for Fargo is super stretching it.
Marc -- it just seems to me that her campaign is already working very hard (she's everywhere and the film keeps winning prizes) and the Director field is not settled.
Ulrich -- i've actually seen the movie. Thought Winslet was phenomenal in it. Maybe people just aren't in the mood for it this year (possible. happens to a lot of great work -- something every year really) but she's stronger than many of the women people are discussing as far as acting goes.
/3rtful -- that is crazy. She's GENIUS in Fargo. And it's totally a lead role (i will never stop being sad that years of campaign fraud have totally made people misunderstand basic structural principles like what protagonists are and such.
Jon -- that's exactly why i'm currently thinking that Dunkirk or Shape of Water will win (lots of #2 and #3 votes)... because at this point at least #1 votes seem slim for any film. People's passions are all over the place this year (which is cool if you ask me)
I wonder if women in the industry could band together to make Wonder Woman a cause to get enough number one votes to make it a best picture player in the nomination stage. Lupita posted about her love for it on Instagram when it debuted. Then Jes Chastain followed that mentioning Lupita. I'm sure Charlize would vote for it having won an Oscar with Patty Jenkins.
Nathaniel: Oh you did see Wonder Wheel?
Sorry!
I'm just not a fan of Winslet, I guess -
and based on the trailer, Wonder Wheel will not be the movie that'll convert me to Winsletism!
By the way, Nathaniel, do you really think that Norway will get nominated?
I love Joachim Trier - but Thelma sounds too out there for the Academy - too fantastical.
Have you seen it? Is it good? Great?
I'd say:
1) Dunkirk
2) The Shape of Water
3) Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
4) Call Me by Your Name
5) Darkest Hour
6) The Florida Project
7) Get Out
with The Big Sick, Lady Bird, Mudbound, The Post and Phantom Thread fighting for the last two spots (the early rumors about The Post's quality are certainly worrisome; Phantom Thread looks surprisingly low-key for PTA's standards so it may be more awards-friendly than what we expected).
Nathaniel, when are you going to post your Wonder Wheel review? I can't wait to read your thoughts about it!
I am actually surprised by the knee-jerk reactions of some people regarding Winslet's Oscar chances (and Storaro's as well). Sure, the film is divisive but, having also seen the film, Winslet's performance is so operatic and tailor-made for awards. She has some incredibly subtle moments where she shows her character's deeply sad situation, as well as those mind-blowing demanding long takes where she completely unravels. Towering work, her best performance in over a decade. I personally found her performance, yes, even bolder than Blanchett's similarly terrific turn in Blue Jasmine.
I think people just aren't in the mood for Woody Allen, and Winslet will pay for it.
I've defended Woody for years, but I admit, when I heard about the plot for his next film, I was ready to throw in the towel.
I can't feel bad for Winslet, because as we all know, there are deserving women every year who don't make the Best Actress line-up, and it's not as though she hasn't been nominated (and rewarded) before.
Much as I adored it, I remain skeptical the stuffy Academy will fall head over heels for GET OUT. I suspect an Original Screenplay nom is its ceiling over there. (But I hope I'm wrong!)
It seems that the Frontrunners is actually Get Out and Wonder Woman, they are the two most talked about films of the years. Both films have a uncanny Oscar Buzz since they came out.
Suzanne, I know what you mean. I have a terrible feeling about Allen's next film; I think it will be panned.
Winslet is certainly willing to campaign hard (already got the Variety cover and that random Hollywood Film Award) and her performance is certainly the showiest and most demanding in contention so the actors will totally dig it. Also, Storaro's cinematography is going to be considered a milestone in digital cinematography; it's just divine. Both of them can sneak in, but the political climate and mixed reception to the film are certainly big obstacles. I do think they can pull it off, though.
I'm surprised by the rumors that Three Billboards may go Drama at the Globes though. Why would Fox Searchlight jeopardize the potential to win Best Picture and/or Best Actress Globes in both Drama and Comedy for The Shape of Water and Three Billboards respectively? I think it'll end up in Comedy (where it can certainly win given the current buzz)
It seems in vogue to try to lessen The Post’s Oscar chances. I am sorry. Until I see a trailer and the movie itself, I am not believing it. It is like people are wanting it to fail because it is Spielberg/ Streep/Hanks/timely subject matter/ amazing ensemble/ and opening in a great awards qualifying run. To me, I look at what has been offered so far and I actually see a very weak best picture category. It would have to really, really like The BFG, be such a bomb to not be considered at all. I don’t believe the hype being perpetuated.
Musical/Comedy
Battle of the Sexes
The Greatest Showman
Victoria and Abdul
Downsizing
Lady Bird
Motion Picture Drama
The Darkest Hour
Dunkirk
Mudbound
Call me by Your Name
Three Billboards Outside of Ebbing, Missouri
James: I have to ask "why" on Wonder Woman. It's pretty good, but the best moments were the ones that felt "safe" and "simple." And the stuff tied to general human empathy was at least passable, even if it was less deep than it thought it was. But it's the historical metaphor embodied by Danny Huston that most made me go "What!? Um...bullcrap. Even as metaphor, you've chosen the wrong country." That whole part of the plot would be a VERY accurate microcosm of the social forces and results between WWI and WWII for Russians, not Germans.
Jamie ... I am in total agreement with your blog on The Post.
I'm really hoping rumors regarding The Greatest Showman aren't true. I feel like its odd that it hasn't even screened and there is already dismissals about its quality. The trailer excited me so much, so hopefully it can live up to that. Even if it isn't an awards player hopefully it is still entertaining.
I wonder, is there really no front runner or are people just too shook to proclaim one after getting it so wrong with La La Land last year. The Darkest Hour would seem like the standard front runner just on its surface, though I say that as someone who hasn't seen it.
"I think people just aren't in the mood for Woody Allen, and Winslet will pay for it."
I would say critics aren't in the mood for Woody Allen this year. I kind of doubt Wonder Wheel will be an across-the-board player like some of us thought, but the Winslet/Allen combo (two Academy favorites) will definitely get a considerable amount of Academy attention. I think Winslet and Storaro are still definitely in the conversation - even people who are down on the film praise both of their work.
Interesting reading people's thoughts on Winslet,Nat and a few others are saying she's gr8 but others say no to Woody so Winslet must go also,isn't it about the performance,i'd rather have Winlset in the conversation than DEnch ot this year's IT girl Robbie,I hope Ronan doesn't win so soon she has loads more to give.
I think Frances was supporting in Fargo but would place her in neither category cos I like 5 more than her in 96 but I know why people love her in it and why it's a untypical Oscar winner.
"I would say critics aren't in the mood for Woody Allen this year."
I'm not a critic. I have no desire to see Wonder Wheel, and I've seen most of his movies in theaters since I was a teenager. The current environment will not be hospitable to this film.
It would be better for Winslet's career not to be nominated for this film. She hasn't handled the recent publicity tour well, and she'll probably face a backlash if she's in the spotlight.
@NATHANIEL R
"that's exactly why i'm currently thinking that Dunkirk or Shape of Water will win (lots of #2 and #3 votes)... because at this point at least #1 votes seem slim for any film. People's passions are all over the place this year (which is cool if you ask me)"
I totally agree with you. 100 per cent. totally.
and I'm loving that people's passion are all over the place this year. especially because we have great movies of different genres:
war - dunkirk
melodrama / fantasy - the shape of water
comedy - lady bird
dark comedy - three billboards outside ebbing, missouri
drama - call me by your name
sci-fi - blade runner 2049
western - hostiles
biopic - darkest hour
dark horse / independent - the florida project
ensemble movie - the post?
musical - greatest showman?
eurpean movie speak in englsh - phantom thread?
and the list go and on and on
TheBoyFromBrazil: Even if Episode VIII does fulfill the hype, The Academy has never gone all in on it past #1. Even when the movie all but begged for a Best Picture repeat like Episode V did.
Carrell is going lead while the other two are for sure going supporting for Last Flag Flying btw
I think you may be heavily underestimating Three Billboards; it's a film which is inspiring a good deal of love (some critics called it close to perfect) and, at very worst, a shrug. Nobody hates it, it'll pick up some easy #3s and #4s, it appeals to actors and writers, and it's got just enough edge to not be a boring contender. The narrative follows an active, heroic character seeking justice against racism and complacency, with a heavy dose of forgiveness - itll appra emotionally and entertain since its a black comedy.
On top of this, the current trend is that the Best Picture winner wins Screenplay - even if nothing else. Three Billboards is the frontrunner in Original, and I doubt any contender in Adapted has the juice to win. Dunkirk or Shape of Water will win Best Director, but whether due to lack of emphasis on writing/acting, or genre bias, I think neither will take it to the finish line for Best Picture.
Three Billboards is the under cover Best Picture frontrunner.
Duncan, Nathaniel is ranking it as #3 (for likelihood of a nomination) - I'd hardly call that underestimating when the field is somewhere from 7 to 10 titles.
The thing that GET OUT certainly has going for it apart from being good and beloved and acclaimed, is that it made a shit tonne of money, which is something a lot of these movies are going to struggle for (and already are).
I don't think Winslet is happening this year. The Weinstein story has only made Hollywood's gross and weird standards about men in the industry more open and apparent and Allen isn't going to be winning any points this season.
What about THE DISASTER ARTIST... they do love movies about movies. It'd kinda be a kicky thrill to see it nominated for anything considering it's about one of the famously worst movies ever made. And, gosh, best actor and adapted screenplay at least look lean enough for it to fit in. I mean, really, is STRONGER (speaking of movies that made no money and nobody's going to remember in a month) really going to happen?