Best Actress - April Foolish Oscar Predix
Friday, April 21, 2017 at 11:30AM We always save the best category for last.
The April Foolish Oscar predictions are officially complete with the BEST ACTRESS chart which has just gone up. So many talent women. So much luscious actressing to come. We cannot wait to see these performances, wherever they happen to fall on the chart. Predictions are for fun and do not indicate who we're rooting for ever -- we try not to root for anything without actually seeing the films because "may the best performance win!" and we don't know what that will be yet, now do we? This year the April Foolish crystal ball says "all previous nominees" but that's largely because it does not appear to be a year where many women who aren't previous nominees have managed to land leading roles. But we shall see.
Answer me these questions three:
1. Which actress's double feature are you most excited to see? The busy choices are: Jessica Chastain (A Woman Walks Ahead, Molly's Game), Kate Winslet (Wonder Wheel, The Mountain Between Us), Sally Hawkins (Maudie, The Shape of Water), and Charlize Theron (Tully, Atomic Blonde). Let's leave the very busy Nicole Kidman out of this survey since the size of her roles aren't totally obvious this year.
2. Do you think Annette Bening has momentum due to that near-miss last season (those sometimes build goodwill) or do you think 20th Century Women is irrelevant to this year's prediction equation?
3. Which performance are you convinced will be great sight unseen? ...and vice versa if you're feeling irritable today.
ICYMI
Past articles on this new Oscar race
Last year's Oscars, the full index
Reader Comments (74)
Kidman
Pfeiffer
Bening
Winslet
Whoever else
If only we could dream
I initially thought Judi Dench would be snubbed just because this film -rather than a follow-up to Mrs Brown- is practically the same story all over again. I believe voters would chastise them for that.
But then I realized that Dench is a GREAT actress and there is the sentimal plus that she never won a lead Oscar and the sad fact that she is going blind.
So, muy 5 candidates are:
Saoirse Ronan
Annette Bening
Glenn Close
Kate Winslet
Judi Dench
What a Battle Royal that would be!
btw nobody is saying Cate Blanchett in MANIFESTO
and technically that's a 2017 release
and practically it's A LOT of actressing -> the academy loves actressing -> people who've seen it, say they like it, that would include critics.
Kate Winslet has a way of forecasting which performances she's particularly proud of, even though she always does a solid job of promoting the films she's in, and I get the impression from her recent comments about Wonder Wheel, how she mentioned the incredible shoot, which she said was the second most stressful of her career, along with the honor of working with Allen and then even slipping in that the costumes in the film join Eternal Sunshine as some of her favorites is very telling. She was also very proud of Steve Jobs. She only glossed over the plot line of The Mountain Between Us, so my prediction is she solidifies nomination buzz in Wonder Wheel this summer and then locks it in with another great, if not Oscar bait, turn in The Mountain Between Us in the fall.
Most excited about the Winslet double feature. Also looking forward to Ronan. She was so great in Brooklyn, I am really excited to see what she does next.
So excited to see what Halle Berry does in Kings. She hasn't had a showcase part in years. She was amazing in Monster's Ball. I loved Mustang as well. Super pumped!
I like Saoirse Ronan but I don't get the "best actress of her generation" raves. I also saw her in The Crucible on Broadway and found her pretty weak.
I really like Stone and hope she scores another nod soon just to shut people up on this board.
I love Kidman, but based on the trailer of Beguiled I don't see it happening for her. I think we'll need to be satisfied with this being a year that people are keen on her again, but that it won't necessarily translate into an Oscar nod.
It was just announced that the Spielberg Pentagon papers movie will be released this year, on December 22. Streep is coming for that Oscar !
From my understanding, Streep's role in Spielberg's film is Supporting, no?
Yes to Winslet, always. Frances, you go, woman! And I'd like to see at least two never nominated actresses in the line up. Seems like a stacked up year for actresses again. At least, from now. Who knows how the chips will fall.
I know she's an ultra-mega-longshot, but I'd note down anywhere, that Anne Hathaway has achieved a good impact in "Colossal", which is doing quite fine, in limited release and doubling its screens for second week in a row. Pending on how the film goes on in the next weeks, we'll be talking about a possible Golden Globe Comedy nominated performance, we all know that field is weaker than the drama, and Award calibre female leads are less than males.
To achieve a "competitor" status, Hathaway would need...
- Colossal becoming a surprise sleeper hit on the ranks of 15-20 million.
- Not many films/performances overshadowing its memory.
- Actual campaigning by Hathaway and some critics love.
So I'd say right now she's a big NO, but can see how it could happen. Specially since every year, since April, 95% of the films and performances will either be wiped out of memory, disappoint, or simply won't be considered "Oscary" enough.
"I'm curious about Jennifer Lawrence in mother! and what kind of performance Aronofsky will direct out of her."
NEVER underestimate Aronofsky. Also, as much hate as she gets (and sometimes deserves), Lawrence can be electric. Even if it is a brilliant masterpiece that doesn't mean Oscar will bite though. Aronofsky generally does not make Oscar Bait/Friendly films but he does make great ones. Very excited to see what he turns up this time. Even Noah, messy as it was, had some great moments.
James T, yes two noms for Kidman!! I guy can dream can't he? I want more Kate Winslet she kills it in everything! And I love Chastain and Saoirse was robbed for Brooklyn!! Totally off topic but Kidman related, Emmy category? Has anyone seen Christina Ricci in Z? Could she sneak in there?
Yep- already time to update the lists- The Post is coming limited in December and full on January 12th for all the awards love. Streep is also lead not supporting according to many who have read the script - it focuses heavily on her struggle.
Patrick - I saw somewhere Kidman and Witherspoon both placed in Lead for Limited Series, with Woodley's category still being decided. Dern and Kravitz placed in Suppotting, of course. However, I also read somewhere that it may now qualify for Drama Series, since it seems they will be pursuing a second season.
Sorry my sources are not cited.
In a just world, Kristen Stewart would at least get nominated for Personal Shopper but my guess is that pigs will fly before that happens.
Close is having a good year, Sunset is a hit and with a number of films due out (ranging from cameos to supporting to leads) If The Wife if half good I think she could get a nomination.... she is closing in on legend status now and the embracing of her white hair is a not a bad way to remind people that time is running out.
My crystal ball says Meryl, Annette, Judi, Jennifer and Debra. Rejoice.
I believe the ones that seem more likely to get nominated are :
Meryl Streep
Kate Winslet ( it could be Meryl vs Kate again this year )
Judi Dench
Jennifer Lawrence
Frances Mcdormand
Jessica Chastain
My predictions:
1. Meryl (Supposedly the script is very focused on Katharine Graham, so this is definitely a meaty lead role if filmed as written)
2. Lawrence
3. McDormand
4. Chastain, for Molly's Game
5. Kidman, for The Beguiled (She looks amazing in the trailer and has career momentum... are we sure this won't be campaigned as supporting though? Dunst has equal or greater time in the trailer)
As usual, you underestimate Lawrence. Aronofsky directed two of the best lead female performances this century... one won the Oscar and the other came close.
Wow...another stacked Best Actress year (third year in a row!)...Hollywood, please keep the momentum going!
Well you, Suzanne, underestimate Kate Winslet
AAA - Not really, I just properly estimate Woody Allen.
Roger - last I saw on Gold Derby they finally decided on Woodley in Supporting.
Rooting for Bening, Berry, Pfeiffer, McDormand and Smith but I have no misconceptions that that will be the top 5.
Read about the life of Gloria Grahame (to be played by Annette Bening) - what a story!!! how can she lose. and she'll being dying no less!!!! does anyone else listen to "You must remember this" podcast?