Team Experience Oscar Prediction: Final Scores

by Cláudio Alves

No one predicted I'M STILL HERE in Best Picture. | © Sony Pictures Classics

We're still reeling from this morning's Oscar nominations announcement but it's time to check predictions and assess the numbers. Like last year, various members of the Team Experience put forward their best guesses. While the point of this exercise is to see how different folks see the race, it's also a little competition of sorts, with a pundit ranking at the end. Overall, our collection of writers did better than last year, averaging a 75% success rate when excluding those tricky short film categories. These predictions also help us grasp what the day's big surprises truly were, both in terms of shocking selections or notorious snubs. Without further ado, here's the final score…

Click to read more ...

Team Experience: Final Oscar Nominations Predictions!

by Cláudio Alves

We predict EMILIA PÉREZ is about to make Oscar history.

With the Oscar nominations mere hours away, it's time to present the Team Experience's final predictions. Like last time, you get each writer's individual guesses, followed by an aggregate collective prediction. Tallying everything up, the Team Experience believes Emilia Pérez will be the nomination leader with eleven mentions, which would make it the most nominated non-English-language film of all time. The musical is closely followed by The Brutalist and Conclave, which have nine each. We also see Wicked scoring eight categories, while Dune: Part Two settles for seven. In the 2023/4 season, we averaged 70% correct predictions, with Nathaniel and I leading the pack with 73% accuracy. Time will tell what pundit claims victory this year…

Click to read more ...

ASC surprises with nominations for "Wicked" and "Maria"

by Cláudio Alves

WICKED's Alice Brooks may become the fourth woman ever nominated for the Best Cinematography Oscar.

This past week, among the bigger guild announcements, like those of the WGA and PGA, the American Society of Cinematographers also shared their nominees for the season. And what a collection of curious choices they make. For starters, the ASC rules mean its nominees on the main film category can fluctuate and, this year, we have seven nominees instead of the traditional five. But then you have the honored works themselves, including Wicked, which has been lambasted to hell and back for its blinding light choices, poor blocking, and murky color grade. The presence of some of the guild's favorite artists – Papamichael and Lachman come to mind – also surprised, somewhat. It seems A Complete Unknown has a shot at a Best Cinematography nomination, and Maria hasn't been so utterly forgotten after all…

Click to read more ...

"Dune: Part Two" does well with the WGA and VES

by Cláudio Alves

DUNE: PART TWO | © Warner Bros.

Due to understandable circumstances, the awards season calendar has been thrown into disarray. Last week was supposed to be dominated by the Hollywood guilds announcing their nominees, but many chose to postpone such fanfare in the face of the LA wildfires. Still, there are two more guilds to account for now, as the VES and the WGA have issued press releases with their members' best-of-the-year picks. For those trying to predict the Oscars, the re-emergence of Dune: Part Two as a contender is a notable development, especially since Denis Villeneuve just received a Best Director BAFTA nomination. Then again, when discussing the Writers Guild, the sheer number of illegible contenders makes their precursor status a bit iffy…

Click to read more ...

ADG, AMPS, and the BSC close the 'Guilds Week'

by Cláudio Alves

The guilds are coming together in support for CONCLAVE.

To talk about awards in the face of such a catastrophe as the LA fires feels fundamentally wrong. And yet, we need to acknowledge them to explain why this past week has been so odd for those following the Oscar race. Amid the ongoing calamity, various Hollywood guilds have delayed their announcements and extended voting periods. This includes the Academy, but for this post's purpose, the PGA, WGA, and ASC are the organizations we're specifically referring to. Not all guilds followed suit, of course. The Art Directors Guild and the Association of Motion Picture Sound have shared their slate of honorees for the season. Also, since they're not based in California, the British Society of Cinematographers was unaffected. Let's consider their nominees…

Click to read more ...