Emmy Analysis: Drama Supporting Categories

By Abe Friedtanzer

Aubrey Plaza and Theo James in The White Lotus. Photograph by Fabio Lovino/HBO

Sixteen nominees for supporting actor and supporting actress are drawn from a mere four drama series, and two of them netted just a single mention apiece. That’s fourteen bids for two juggernauts from HBO, The White Lotus and Succession. The former is up one nomination from last year while the latter breaks even in these races, but two of its supporting contenders from last year, Kieran Culkin and Sarah Snook, got promoted to the lead race (and may be able to win there). Despite heavy internal competition, I think last year’s winners have a good shot at repeating, but let’s look closely at all the nominees and the episodes they’ve submitted for consideration…

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Best Supporting Actress ~ First Round Predictions

by Nathaniel R

Emily Blunt in "Oppenheimer"

So is it finally Emily Blunt's time? She's been thisclose to an Oscar nomination multiple times with other awards bodies like SAG, the Golden Globes, and BAFTA making room for her repeatedly! Somehow an Oscar nomination has never materialized even when she 1000% deserved it (hello comedic genius from The Devil Wears Prada). With the largest female role in the The Year's Biggest Prestige Drama, Oppenheimer, she may finally make the shortlist. But what if previously nominated Florence Pugh joins her in the event that a lot of movies intended for the fall don't arrive as scheduled? Despite the movies lengthy running time they both don't get as many scenes as we would have liked but that might not matter given the film and the response.

Other questions looming over the Best Supporting Actress Oscar race are after the jump.

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First Round Oscar Predictions Nearly Complete!

by Nathaniel R

Dear reader, I had planned a big article on each Oscar category as we completed this first round. Scratch that. It's best to finally get all the charts up and then dive further week by week, so we have somewhere to start from. Over at the Prediction Index you'll see that every category we guess well ahead of time is up now with more "tier 2" and "other possibilities" business on the individual category charts. Well all charts but International Feature (which we're working on) and both Actress charts. We can't throw the latter up without detailing it; It's not in our natures to give actresses short shrift!

So investigate the early predictions at your leisure. Well, don't wait too long. Things will change very soon. Calendar shifts are normal this time of year but it's likely to be even more volatile this season given the WGA/SAG strike and AMTMP's refusal to pay them anything like what they used to get paid for their work before streaming changed the entertainment landscape. Supporting Actress Chart tomorrow! 

Emmy Analysis: Comedy Supporting Categories

By Abe Friedtanzer

Ebon Moss-Bachrach and Ayo Edebiri in FX's The Bear

With only fourteen nominees, the comedy supporting categories still have nearly double the shows represented by the drama supporting categories’ sixteen recognized individuals. Both supporting actor and supporting actress contain two sets of double nominees, but it’s hardly the overwhelming domination that exists on the drama side. There are also five past winners and a handful of fresh faces that make these two races well worth watching...

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Best Lead Actor - First Round Predictions

by Nathaniel R

Cillian Murphy (Oppenheimer) and Colman Domingo (Rustin) are both working the classic 'biopic' angle

As with the first round of Best Supporting Actor predictions, we're opting to pretend that the strike will be resolved in time for most of the movies that are scheduled for awards season to continue with their current plans. We use the word "pretend" because it feels increasingly likely that this awards season will be an unprecented combo of fewer than usual releases and zero celebrity campaigning. We hope the studio powers-that-be will wake from their incessant greed and learn to share the wealth with the people without whom they can't make money (actors/writers) but we're not going to hold out breath lest we asphyxiate.

On to Best Actor. This category is often heavy on biographical 'great men' roles and there's little reason to expect this year will be any different. Cillian Murphy, Colman Domingo, Bradley Cooper, Joaquin Phoenix, and Adam Driver will all potentially benefit from that tried and true awards-appeal genre...

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