Nathaniel's final predix: What kind of Oscar night will we be having?

by Nathaniel R

The big story from the SAG Awards last weekend was the continuing rise of Conclave and A Complete Unknown in the awards race. The fires in Los Angeles had previously wreaked havoc on people’s lives, many of whom work in the industry we obsess over so the event carried that story forward. More superficially (we recognize that this hardly matters in context!) the fires disrupted the usual flow from December’s mandatory “Best of” list explosion through the call and response of the various precursors and on to Oscar night. This makes it far more difficult than usual to predict what’s coming as there’s not necessarily any cause and effect from one event to the next given the messy timelines of voting. 

How much did the Emilia Perez scandal hurt a film oscar voters clearly loved in January? How many more voters watched I’m Still Here AFTER its surprising success on nomination morning? Do people love The Brutalist or merely admire it? Is Anora really out front as the DGA and PGA suggest? Will Conclave prove the adult contemporary tune that tops the charts amongst a sea of rowdy garage band hits (Anora, The Substance), folksy callbacks (A Complete Unknown) and would-be operatic bangers (The Brutalist, Emilia Perez, Dune Part Two)? I have so many questions...

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Split Decision: “Dune: Part Two”

In the Split Decision series, two of our writers face off on an Oscar-nominated movie one loves and the other doesn't. Today, Cláudio Alves and Lynn Lee discuss Dune: Part Two...

CLÁUDIO ALVES: As far as the Best Picture Oscar race is concerned, sequels are quite the rarity. Early year releases are even rarer. Yet, Dune: Part Two made it into the Academy's top ten, scoring four additional nominations - Cinematography, Production Design, Visual Effects, and Sound. Sure, by this metric, it pales in comparison to Part One, with its double-digit nods and six wins. But it's still a remarkable achievement. To be honest, I had a much better time with the sequel than with its predecessor. Part of it concerns a better grasp of what Villeneuve is doing in his adaptation of Frank Herbert's magnum opus, observing people as grains of sand in the winds of an imagined history rather than as characters. It's about the tragedy of going beyond personhood and the labor of building mythos and monuments, which results in a cold, mural-like cinematic experience that feels more coherent than its first chapter made it seem. In its alienation, I saw a purpose I didn't find in 2021.

I gather you had a different experience, Lynn. How does Dune: Part Two compare to Part One in your book?

LYNN LEE: It's funny, Cláudio - I completely agree with your assessment of what Part Two is doing, only to have the exact opposite response! To be clear, I don't hate or even dislike the film.  Quite the contrary.  I admire Villeneuve's craftsmanship and commitment to his (and I think Herbert's, though I haven't read the books) vision of Dune as ur-myth.  However, its coldness...what can I say?...left me cold.  Its alienation alienated me…

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Oscar Volleys: “Wicked” is the one to beat in Best Costume Design

The Oscar Volleys are back for some post-nomination talks. Tonight, Cláudio Alves and Nick Taylor discuss Best Costume Design...

WICKED | © Universal Pictures

CLÁUDIO: Let me repeat an exercise of Oscar volleys past and dream up an outfit that combines the year's Best Costume Design nominees - Melissa McCarthy and Brian Tyree Henry style. You can picture me in ecclesiastical garb like the blasphemous queen I am, adorned with Denzel Washington's bling from Gladiator II. Over my shoulders, there's Count Orlok's furry robe - after a thorough dry cleaning - and Bob Dylan's stylish 60s shades hide my eyes from mere mortals. And then, I'll pull up those Catholic skirts and reveal the Fiyero boots because Jonathan Bailey can't have all the fun. He's free to try to come and get them back. Please do, Johnny!

What about you, dear Nick? What's your outfit like?

NICK: That’s a ravishing question. We start with Elphaba’s iconic black hat. Sewn into Tazewell’s architectural embellishments would be various prizes from my victories in the gladiator ring like arrowheads and human bones, or maybe the gold-leaf crown would be the rim of the hat. We gotta wear one of Joan Baez’s floral-patterned dresses - the deep blue number might be fun, and I bet she was wearing some really comfy shoes. For Conclave, keep it simple and classy with Sister Agnes’ cross, maybe have some robes in the back in case it’s cold.  I’m struggling what to do for Nosferatu, because I also want Orlok’s coat, and because so many of Ellen’s outfits don’t really make sense on top of what I’ve already selected. Maybe I’ll weave her sad lilies into my hair? The vibe is very “Pagan Sarah Carpenter”, but I’m for it…

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"Dune: Part Two" does well with the WGA and VES

by Cláudio Alves

DUNE: PART TWO | © Warner Bros.

Due to understandable circumstances, the awards season calendar has been thrown into disarray. Last week was supposed to be dominated by the Hollywood guilds announcing their nominees, but many chose to postpone such fanfare in the face of the LA wildfires. Still, there are two more guilds to account for now, as the VES and the WGA have issued press releases with their members' best-of-the-year picks. For those trying to predict the Oscars, the re-emergence of Dune: Part Two as a contender is a notable development, especially since Denis Villeneuve just received a Best Director BAFTA nomination. Then again, when discussing the Writers Guild, the sheer number of illegible contenders makes their precursor status a bit iffy…

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"Conclave" leads the BAFTA nominations

by Cláudio Alves

Isabella Rossellini and Ralph Fiennes are both nominated for CONCLAVE. | © Focus Features

The BAFTAs are upon us, and this year's nominations are a return to the institution's 2000s penchant for precursor-ism. By that I mean that its choices are keeping in tune with the Oscar favorites in most races. That's unsurprising considering that, for the first time since 2020, the British Academy did away with juries and committees in the acting and directing categories. Many may rejoice at this populist comeback, but I miss the more unexpected choices we enjoyed during those years. In any case, Conclave leads the nomination tally with 12 mentions, while Emilia Pérez is a close runner-up with 11, including a Supporting Actress double dip. Next comes The Brutalist with nine nods, Dune: Part Two, Wicked and Anora have seven, A Complete Unknown six, while The Substance and Nosferatu each nab five…

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