Nathaniel's final predix: What kind of Oscar night will we be having?
Friday, February 28, 2025 at 6:00PM by Nathaniel R
The big story from the SAG Awards last weekend was the continuing rise of Conclave and A Complete Unknown in the awards race. The fires in Los Angeles had previously wreaked havoc on people’s lives, many of whom work in the industry we obsess over so the event carried that story forward. More superficially (we recognize that this hardly matters in context!) the fires disrupted the usual flow from December’s mandatory “Best of” list explosion through the call and response of the various precursors and on to Oscar night. This makes it far more difficult than usual to predict what’s coming as there’s not necessarily any cause and effect from one event to the next given the messy timelines of voting.
How much did the Emilia Perez scandal hurt a film oscar voters clearly loved in January? How many more voters watched I’m Still Here AFTER its surprising success on nomination morning? Do people love The Brutalist or merely admire it? Is Anora really out front as the DGA and PGA suggest? Will Conclave prove the adult contemporary tune that tops the charts amongst a sea of rowdy garage band hits (Anora, The Substance), folksy callbacks (A Complete Unknown) and would-be operatic bangers (The Brutalist, Emilia Perez, Dune Part Two)? I have so many questions...
While the last couple of years of Oscar races have returned us to the time of mini-sweeps (Oppenheimer and Everything Everywhere All At Once won several statues) most of the last quarter century of Oscar races have shifted us to an era where the Best Picture winner either doesn’t win the most Oscars OR does but its win count is fairly low. Three to four Oscars is fairly common now for a winner. We even had a year where the Best Picture winner only took 2 statues (Spotlight, 2015).
Here are a few scenarios that were playing out in my mind as I tried to decide on my predictions...
SCENARIO 1 - MOMENTUM IS EVERYTHING
Anora’s recent guild wins and other surges show that momentum is everything. Sean Baker wins three of his four of his nominations (Picture, Director, Screenplay) but Conclave (Adapted Screenplay, Score, Editing) and A Complete Unknown (Actor, Sound) also take multiple competitive statues, and I’m Still Here manages to overthrow Emilia Perez (International Film) in the final lap. This scenario is especially hard on The Brutalist which goes home emptyhanded.
SCENARIO 2 - ANORA’S FALSE ALARM
Conclave, which everyone at least likes, becomes a common denominator champ and a tie-breaker, defeating its more admired or obsessed over rivals since they’re more divisive and takes four key Oscars (Picture, Adapted Screenplay, Score, Editing) while A Complete Unknown (which also doesn’t inspire haters to rank it low) wins two Oscars respectively (Actor, Sound) which leaves either Anora OR The Brutalist emptyhanded –only one of them can win Best Director!
SCENARIO 3 - EPIC ADMIRATION
The Brutalist’s epic nature helps it eke out a victory over its less ambitious but more easy-to-love rivals and it takes four or five Oscars (Picture, Director, Actor, Cinematography, Score) which mostly hurts Anora which has to settle for just one (Original Screenplay). The night goes exactly as expected, no better or worse, for the other films.
SCENARIO 4 - SPREADING THE WEALTH IN A RECORD-BREAKING WAY
All of the confusion and chaos of the season results in an Oscar night with no clear winner - no film wins more than two statues but quite a few win exactly two! Statisticians go wild trying to figure out if anything like this has happened in the previous 96 years of the Academy Awards.
IN CONCLUSION!
What I’ve finally come up with is a little something from all four scenarios with The Brutalist winning the most Oscars but Conclave and Anora and The Substance and I’m Still Here also not leaving the room depressed. In this predicted scenario only A Complete Unknown and Emilia Perez leave Hollywood's High Holy Night a little shellshocked given either their current momentum (ACU) or their previous runaway frontrunning (EP).
I'm sure to be wrong and I LOVE IT.
I have never felt this much possibility the weekend before the Oscars. It’s strange to feel (for once) that anything might happen beyond of course all four acting categories going to lead actors – that injustice is a certainty! Here is the final prediction chart… you can look at each individual chart if you click on the category titles and vote on the "Should Win" polls there.
Reader Comments (4)
I would LOVE for Scenario #4 to happen, if only just for the chaos and gaggotry of it all. I'd also like Scenario #1 to happen, particularly Chalamet in Actor.
In semi related news, are you not doing the Film Bitch Awards this year? Even if it's just a list of winners?
I'm kinda hoping for #4 as well. Let's get this crazy, unpredictable season to end in a crazy, unpredictable way!
It's brave to predict Anora winning Best Picture with only one other Oscar: screenplay. But that's also what I'm doing, I'm scared to go with Brady for Director but we're living in crazy Oscar times.
Super excited that the new Film Bitch Awards pages are starting to update, but there's still no winners listed in the acting categories last year? Is this a mistake? I've been checking in periodically for a long time