Oscar Volleys: Let’s wrap this up!

The Oscars are TONIGHT. To end the volleys, Cláudio Alves and Nathaniel Rogers are here to cover all the categories the team hadn't yet discussed…

THE BRUTALIST | © A24

CLÁUDIO: As much as we try to cover every Oscar race at The Film Experience, it isn't always easy to get conversations going for all of them. So, here we are, Nathaniel, dealing with the last slew of races before the big night. Since last time, we focused so much on the eye candy trifecta, we could give the place of privilege to the aural achievements now. Or Best Editing since that's so strongly correlated to Best Picture. And let me tell you, I am quite lost when it comes to that particular lineup. I could see all five of the nominees winning. Though I presume The Brutalist has the least chance since it is my favorite, and I've learned, over the years, to predict pessimistically to avoid disappointments. It's a good method - everyone should try it.

NATHANIEL: Predicting pessimistically has cost me at times for overall punditry scores (not that I care to much about those stats) but the amount of emotional armor it provides is helpful…

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Oscar Volleys: Three still standing for Best Picture. Who wins tonight?

The penultimate Oscar Volley. This morning, Abe Friedtanzer, Eric Blume, and Nathaniel R discuss the category at the top of the Academy mountain.

NATHANIEL: "BEST PICTURE!" He shouts with horror, as Team Experience reaches the final day of Oscar season with this category not yet volleyed. By now readers have had a chance to see all of our Predictions, and my own multiverse grappling with what might play out tonight  along with most of my own alternate ballot. Best Picture may well be the last award presented on regular Oscar nights, but it's far from the least. In fact, one could argue you should always BEGIN with Best Picture in your discussions since all awards are affected by it. "Trickle down" is a scam in economic turns, but it's very real at the Oscars where voters have historically voted for their favourite in as many 'lesser' categories as they can justify, often with ridiculous results in terms of the nominations and statuettes in  craft categories. Because we have reached the end of the season, apologies to the filmmakers behind Dune Part Two, Nickel Boys, I'm Still Here, Wicked, A Complete Substance, and even nomination leader Emilia Perez... but I think we can safely say that none of these films have a prayer in hell of taking the top prize.

Consensus, history, and momentum (in various quantities) suggests that only the epic drama The Brutalist, papal thriller Conclave, and raw and reckless indie Anora could win Hollywood's highest prize. BUT preferential balloting always throws a fascinating wrench into the popularity contest that is the Oscar race. Not only do you have to have a lot of votes in the end, but you also have to be ranked highly on ballots you don't win if the race is close. And won't it be? So what say you gentlemen? Who has the advantage and do pundits put too much stock into the "ranking" of preferential ballots.

ABE: Nathaniel, I think you meant A Complete Unknown, not A Complete Substance, but I think that speaks to how that those films aren't going to be major players. I think that, prior to Karla's tweets coming up, Emilia Perez could have competed, and both Wicked and The Substance could have been in play too had they done better on nominations day. But it's down to the three you mentioned...

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Oscar Volleys: Best Actress is a bloodbath

The Oscar Volleys are almost over. Today, Cláudio Alves, Elisa Giudici and Nathaniel Rogers discuss the Best Actress race...

CLÁUDIO: Say what you want about the merits of Best Director or Best Picture's intrinsic importance, but we all know that Best Actress is where it's at. Certainly here, at The Film Experience, where a love for actressing and a love of cinema are often inextricable. And this year, we have one hell of a race, a good old-fashioned nail-biter that will only be resolved once that envelope's opened.

Will it be a rare triumph for horror and a legitimization of an oft-dismissed talent? Will it be a newcomer's moment to shine, riding the wave of love for her frontrunner film? Will it be an international goddess whose Golden Globe win remains one of the season's biggest and most delightful shockers, breaking decades of Oscar precedent? And what about the persona non grata among us? How will the room react to her glorification as a nominee, even if a win seems out of the question? So many mysteries…

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Oscar Volleys: As usual, Best Live-Action and Documentary Short Film are hard to predict

The Oscar Volleys continue, even as the Academy Awards ceremony draws ever closer. Tonight, Cláudio Alves and Ben Miller discuss the Best Live-Action and Documentary Short races...

ANUJA | © Netflix

CLÁUDIO: Well, we're starting to run out of Oscar categories to discuss at The Film Experience. But we couldn't go into the season's pinnacle without giving some attention to the two least-loved races - Best Live-Action and Best Documentary Short Film. And look, I get it. AMPAS rarely showcases good short-form cinema, having a bizarre predilection for miserabilism and stupid twists, moral lectures, and very little audiovisual invention. Where is Godard, or John Smith, or Leos Carax, or Steve McQueen, or Laura Citarella, or Takashi Miike? Nevertheless, AMPAS' favorite miniature pictures deserve to be considered, and there's even a highlight or two to celebrate. Do you agree?

BEN: Every year, these categories give me something that really knocks my socks off. Even if you have something like Animated Short, those are usually very digestible or play in front of a wildly popular Pixar film.  That's not the case with these.  You really have to go out of your way to see these shorts, but they are so very worth it...

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Oscar Volleys: Best Director Looks Like Baker v Corbet

The Oscar Volleys are back for some post-nomination talks. Today, Eric Blume and Nick Taylor discuss the Best Actor race...

A COMPLETE UNKNOWN | © Searchlight Pictures

ERIC: Nick, it's time for us to go tete à tete encore with another Oscar volley, this time for Best Director.  Before we get into the race itself, which seems probably between Brady Corbet and Sean Baker, how do you feel about the nominated five?

 

NICK: It's a respectable bunch! Generally speaking, I am a fan of the sheer ambition represented by everyone who is not James Mangold, and the success at realizing their vision represented by everyone who is not Jacques Audiard...

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