Oscar Volleys: Best Actress is a bloodbath

The Oscar Volleys are almost over. Today, Cláudio Alves, Elisa Giudici and Nathaniel Rogers discuss the Best Actress race...

CLÁUDIO: Say what you want about the merits of Best Director or Best Picture's intrinsic importance, but we all know that Best Actress is where it's at. Certainly here, at The Film Experience, where a love for actressing and a love of cinema are often inextricable. And this year, we have one hell of a race, a good old-fashioned nail-biter that will only be resolved once that envelope's opened.

Will it be a rare triumph for horror and a legitimization of an oft-dismissed talent? Will it be a newcomer's moment to shine, riding the wave of love for her frontrunner film? Will it be an international goddess whose Golden Globe win remains one of the season's biggest and most delightful shockers, breaking decades of Oscar precedent? And what about the persona non grata among us? How will the room react to her glorification as a nominee, even if a win seems out of the question? So many mysteries…

WICKED | © Universal Pictures

NATHANIEL: These mysteries will be solved Sunday night except for the mystery of how you managed to omit Cynthia Erivo's "Elphaba" in Wicked in that opening 'graph. Is it because you think she's in last place? There's a mystery there too about her Oscar fate. Only a handful of actors have ever been nominated for reprising a role but only one was ever nominated the next consecutive year the way Wicked: For Good (2025) might be hoping for Cynthia. And it was for another angel-voiced talent: Bing Crosby via Going My Way (1944) and The Bells of St. Mary’s (1945). 

Elisa who do you think is in last place? It might sound like a cruel place to start but we all know who has been ahead this whole time (even if the others were gaining on her during voting), so I think this is worth discussing!

ELISA: Looks like Karla Sofía Gascón is shaping up to get the fewest votes this year—pretty wild considering she was probably everyone’s safe bet at the start of the season. We all know what went down, and while I’m sure she still has her supporters, this whole mess has only made it clearer just how impeccable the other four’s race to the statuette has been.

Honestly, I couldn’t tell you who’s played the awards game best—interviews, red carpets, appearances, the whole package. Demi Moore knowing her way around Hollywood politics? No shock there. But Mikey Madison holding her own with charm and wit? Impressive. And then there’s Fernanda Torres, who, with just a handful of killer speeches and standout moments, went from under the radar (at least, for casual watchers) to a serious international name—she’d look right at home holding that statuette.

Not to mention Cynthia Erivo, co-lead of the most successful film in the lineup and the face of the most iconic campaign of the season.

I'M STILL HERE | © Sony Pictures Classics

Between their wildly different performances (some in genres the Academy usually ignores, as you pointed out) and the way they’ve all carried themselves—absolutely nailing acceptance speeches and interviews—this race feels more unpredictable than ever. And speaking of mysteries, I need to see the final numbers. Is this as neck-and-neck as it seems? Will it come down to three or four in the end? What’s your take—who’s taking that fourth spot, and how big will the gap be from third?

CLÁUDIO: As someone who was never fond of Gascón's performance - back in September when I felt alone in my loathing of her movie - I can't say I'm not happy about her guaranteed fifth-place finish. 

I would also say you're underselling Torres' campaign slightly. Sony Pictures Classics has that woman everywhere, flying worldwide to attend all kinds of events, from festivals to awards ceremonies where she isn't even nominated to Good Morning America. She has appeared on the covers of some of the most prominent magazines in the English-speaking world and solidified a fanbase that includes many a famous face and extends far beyond Lusophone audiences. The distributor is hungry for gold and who can blame them? I've long sung the praises of Torres' performance - a monumental achievement - but hardly expected her to become such a strong contender for the win.

Sure, I might have texted some friends at TIFF, saying SCP could turn Torres into the next "Penélope Cruz in Parallel Mothers" come Oscar time. Nevertheless, that was more wishful thinking than anything. 

So strong is her campaigning (and her nominated work) that I feel she's right there with Madison and Moore sprinting to the finish line. By comparison, Erivo is a distant fourth, though I'd personally rank her third in this quintet. On re-watch, I was even more impressed by her rendition of iconic songs and an iconic part, adding dimension to familiar passages and making them feel new again. Hell, I've heard countless versions of "The Wizard and I" and Erivo might honestly be my favorite. I apologize for erasing her Elphaba in my introduction, but I couldn't find a way to put her there. If neither BAFTA nor SAG gave her a win, I don't think she's a threat. Maybe next year. Can't wait to see what she does with "No Good Deed." What about you, Nathaniel? 

NATHANIEL: What do I think about Erivo or who do I think is in last place? I'll answer both questions simultaneously.

WICKED | © Universal Pictures

I think Erivo might be the one in last place. Not every Oscar voter cares about scandals or bad behavior or public opinion and a lot of voters are obsessed with Emilia Pérez or it wouldn't have broken a record set by two infinitely superior films (Roma and Crouching Tiger) to become the most nominated non-English language film of all time. Erivo, I'd argue, was hurt by Wicked being split into two films. She's very good in it I think. If huge characters that have to be pitched for heightened genre affect and deliver earnest drama without tipping outside of joyful fluff contours were easy to pull off you'd see a lot more films as popular as Barbie and Wicked. 

I name check Barbie because Robbie's killer star turn is the closest recent example of the tightrope Erivo is walking between heavy demands of a movie's themes and arc and the genre's crucial 'lightness'. This is not to say that Erivo is anywhere near as genius or nimble as Robbie was in the earlier picture (Robbie would have made such a great winner and sadly she wasn't even nominated!), but Robbie's exquisite calibration also wasn't cut off just as Barbie was waking up to her utopia's dystopia, if you know what I mean. Had Wicked  been one epic film that was this popular and this much of a joy to watch, Erivo's Elphaba might have felt like a more monumental achievement. But unless they make major shifts in the narrative, Wicked: For Good won't restore whatever was lost by a year long intermission since "Defying Gravity" has always been the highlight of Wicked and kind of goes downhill from there (that kind of peak is hard to mantain!).

As for Demi I'd argue she's still out front even if she and her team are probably more on edge about that now than they expected to be. A win for Madison or Torres would still have to be considered an upset, regardless of their momentum. I understand that Torres won the Globe and the international audience is excited about her chances. The parallels to Penélope Cruz's Parallel Mothers run are not unnoticed.... but Cruz did lose, however close it might have been. In the end I think the fact that there are two women who have gained on Demi in the final stretch is going to help the 'popcorn' queen keep them at bay. If she had only one opponent with this kind of momentum it might have been a different story. But there are two and are there really enough voters who wouldn't want to see Demi clutching the Oscar to jump ship?

ANORA | © NEON Rated

BAFTA went for Mikey Madison for her scrappy breakout turn as Ani in Sean Baker's surprise frontrunner. yet somehow I still can't picture her winning. Yes, yes, I know Anora won the Palme d'Or and Cannes has been rising as an Oscar precursor (for better and worse for festival devotees and cinephiles) but it's still a fact that the only Palme d'Or winner to take Best Picture this century is Parasite (2019), another unlikely Oscar powerhouse, and the only previous film to win both (after the Palme became a one film honor) was way back in 1955 with Marty. And it's also still a (sad) fact that Best Picture wins do not equate to Best Actress wins all that often.

Plus, there's the fact that The Substance is obviously popular with voters and Demi Moore is hugely likeable. She has been exuding moved and grateful and aware of her unlikely good fortune rather than entitled or 'finally!' for the entire year. I'm struggling to think of anyone this likeable in a film this popular who has been overthrown at the last second. Or am I forgetting someone?

ELISA: Now, before anyone comes for me, let’s be clear—I’m not downplaying Fernanda’s campaign. If anything, she had the added challenge of a slight language barrier, which she handled flawlessly, keeping that legendary foreign diva aura while nailing the perfect ironic beats (that toss toss with Ariana Grande? Legendary). But the Penélope Cruz comparison? Eh, I’m skeptical. Cruz, even before her Oscar run, was already a much more familiar face—marriage, fashion icon status, and she had the added prestige of being the muse of a director like Almodóvar. Salles just doesn’t have that same pull. I do think Torres has shocker potential (especially if Rossellini actually sneaks in a win for Conclave), but I still see her trailing behind the Moore-Madison race. And if it’s that close, the real question is: where do her votes go? My money’s on Madison benefiting the most. 

ANORA | © NEON Rated

Nathaniel, you’ve got the numbers and precedents—I’m going with my gut. I think Mikey gained some real momentum in the final voting window, which happened to coincide with Anora going from strong contender to full-on Best Picture and Director heavyweight. That kind of wave can carry a performance, and if this really comes down to the wire, I wouldn’t be shocked if Mikey edges out Demi. Demi obviously has the career, the connections, and the sheer industry goodwill that makes people want to see her finally holding an Oscar. But there’s always that allure of rewarding a young actress just as she lands her first major breakout role—something that could even appeal to the Academy’s more traditional voters, especially if The Substance felt too out-there for them.

Like you, I lean toward Moore being ahead, but I’m still predicting Madison—I want this to be one of those chaotic, anything-can-happen kind of nights, the kind we haven’t had in years. And if there’s any acting race where things could go completely off-script, it’s this one.

What’s your call? Who’s the real frontrunner? How close do you think this gets?

I'M STILL HERE | © Sony Pictures Classics

CLÁUDIO: The Cruz comparison was more of a thing between friends, but one can't deny how well Sony Pictures Classics does at this Oscar game. They're especially good at getting international thespians into the conversation in ways few other distributors have managed. In Best Actress, they got Cruz a nomination twice for Almodóvar flicks, Huppert for Elle, Riva for Amour, Deneuve for Indochine, and, of course, Fernanda Montenegro for Central Station. And even if she loses, Torres is already doing better than Cruz since her film actually got a Best Picture nomination.

I guess the main reason I think Torres is up there on a threeway nail-biter race with Madison and Moore is that, no matter how well Anora and The Substance did on Oscar nomination morning, neither overperformed. In the horror movie's case, it did the opposite, missing the Margaret Qualley nomination many pundits had predicted. I'm not saying those films aren't popular, just that they're not invincible. That aforementioned Best Picture nomination for I'm Still Here shows a groundswell of passion that hit at just the right time and seemed only to get bigger as the final voting period took place.

The struggle with her film - like most non-English-language films, sadly - is that they're not at the top of the screener pile for most voters. But after the Globes and the Best Picture nod, it found its place right up top of that pile. Moreover, we have yet to see how a major voting body reacts to Torres when she's in direct competition with Madison and Moore as a nominee. It's a nail-biter, if not a veritable bloodbath. I love this bizarro season - it should always be this suspenseful!

THE SUBSTANCE | © MUBI

Nevertheless, I'm still predicting Moore and will be overjoyed if she takes it. I believe her performance is the key to The Substance's success, grounding the satire in a visceral feeling that hits just as hard as the body horror excess. Between Fargeat's film and A Different Man, this has been a year marked by dark comedies depicting the pits of self-loathing head-on, anchored but also vivisected by lead performances willing to go far into the ugliest recesses of the human soul. Plus, a horror hound like myself couldn't well be unhappy about such a gross-out tour de force getting plaudits. Indeed, I'm overjoyed. 

So, from what I'm reading, I believe Elisa is predicting Madison with Moore as runner-up and Nathaniel is predicting the reverse. I'm going with Moore with Torres as runner-up and potential spoiler. However, before we wrap up, I'd love to know more about what you guys think about the performances themselves. On the Supporting Actress volley, we shared our favorite beats from each contender so we could do the same with the leading ladies.

But also, from the women who were in contention this season, who do you most wish had made it into the Academy's lineup?

NATHANIEL: I don't think it will surprise anyone to hear that the performance I miss the most here is Nicole Kidman's virtuosic star turn in Babygirl. I knew the Academy would struggle with her brilliance (as covered in the pre-nomination Oscar volley) because they only ever love one of our greatest movie stars in instances when she tones down her inner freak. That inner freak who is a devout auteurist addicted to risk-taking is just so dear to my cinephile heart. My favourite thing about Kidman when she's on fire, as she is (finally again) here, is how she is able to dig deep into uncomfortable psyches but never with the intent of explaining them away; in short, I marvel at how transcendent she can be without ever "solving" the intricacies of the person for the audience. Instead she shares the mystery and lets you marvel at how fascinating and unknowable people can be. In other words, if Nicole were a biopic you'd never ever catch her sharing one of those groan-worthy reductive scenes which EXPLAIN some crucial aspect of the famous person through one incident in their life. 

But I've drifted away from the nominees.

EMILIA PÉREZ | © Netflix

As to what we think of the nominated performances, I've already shared my feelings about Erivo's work. I don't much care for Gascón's work as Emilia Pérez which lacked the potency and mystery I needed for a character that's meant to fascinate and confound and thrill and worry you at various stages within the film. On the other hand, I don't really blame Gascón for this. You'd need a Kidman or Blanchett level talent to stitch all these demands together while also riding the waves of whatever Audiard happens to feel like doing in that scene. I am a big fan of all three of the women who are "in the lead". 

You asked about favorite beats within the performances. I'm not sure I can name one in Mikey Madison's Anora because what I appreciated most is just the perpetual vibe. I loved how effortlessly she captured Ani's inability to edit herself or tame her impulses. It comes through vocally and physically. She's never playing "out of control" per se, but you feel it. I think this is one of the reasons the ending hits so hard. Ani isn't thinking through any situation but just living in it recklessly. And only in this moment do you see a glimpse of self-awareness.

My favorite beat in Torres' work is immediately after she's been widowed. I think some authority figure is questioning her (i forget the scene exactly) and rather than present as angry or wounded or devastates there's this unbothered smile on offer. It's not a real smile but it also doesn't read as false. It's almost like the joy of defiance but from a very polite person. I'm doing a terrible job of explaining it! 

ELISA: The ice cream parlour scene in I’m Still Here, absolutely. The quiet weight of grief, carefully hidden from the children yet so starkly visible to us—and somehow, the older kids do pick up on it. 

I'M STILL HERE | © Sony Pictures Classics

I have to say, this is one of the most satisfying lineups in a while, with several of my favorite performances of the year in contention. It helps that some of the other ones I was rooting for got shunted to Supporting instead (ouch). In such an electrified year, with so many films dialed up to the extreme, I love that this category is also filled with extremes. Torres delivers that kind of performance that feels outwardly restrained, yet you can see the depth of emotion anchoring her—grief, resilience, the sheer force holding her family together while reshaping her entire life, both professionally and personally, all without betraying her core self.

Maybe it’s just my natural bias, but I tend to be drawn to the opposite extreme. Personally, I have a soft spot for Madison’s performance—this relentless, high-voltage energy that teeters on the edge of chaos, sometimes practically screamed, yet never tipping into excess. And then it all builds to that final scene, with the windshield wipers acting as a metronome, as all that energy finally unravels into something wild, messy, and deeply sad.

And then there’s Demi Moore, who carries that same jittery, borderline neurotic energy in the two moments that sealed her (by a hair) as the recognized frontrunner: the furious, almost violent makeup removal and that haunting second where she catches her reflection in the doorknob. Moving with that kind of energy, projecting that much resentment—at the world, at herself—is no small feat, and she devours it. 

EMILIA PÉREZ | © Netflix

Now, Erivo and Gascón? I see the craftsmanship, I admire the sheer formal beauty of their work—but emotionally? They don’t quite hit me. I don’t feel the need to write a whole impassioned paragraph about them, you know? It is what it is.

One little regret? No room for Saoirse Ronan—for either of the stellar performances she could’ve campaigned for. But hey, with only five slots, someone was bound to get the axe. And honestly? In this category, this year, I’m surprisingly at peace with it. 

Cláudio, if I recall correctly, you’re not exactly the biggest fan of Anora’s main character, right? So, I’m curious—beyond your (very justified) enthusiastic support for Torres, what are your overall impressions? 

CLÁUDIO: Oh, I like and am interested in Ani. I just wish Anora, the film, felt the same instead of turning her into a type, if not an outright object, for most of its second half before a finale that, in its pursuit of pathos, can't help but pathologize her relationship to sex in a way that feels awfully clichéd and reductive. Nevertheless, throughout it all, Madison works with what she's given, and the limitations she presents aren't exactly her fault but Baker's. My favorite beat from the performance is also its trickiest - the proposal scene.

ANORA | © NEON Rated

As a viewer, one must believe this smart working girl would let herself false for the fantasy of Ivan's love. We must believe she'd let her guard down and will herself to accept, maybe out of naivete, maybe out of despair, maybe because she was blinded by hope and affection. Madison's work encompasses all those possibilities and then some. In that moment, I believed her. 

For Erivo, there's her aforementioned rendition of "The Wizard and I." And, for Gascón, I'm going with her scenes shared with Adriana Paz. Estefania's introduction is the most successful bit of comedy in the entire movie, and their duet, alone at home, hits a note of earnestness that feels more full-bodied than phony. It helps that the music is quite pretty, even if it's riffing on West Side Story to the point of legal action.

THE SUBSTANCE | © MUBI

Regarding Moore, the makeup scene is the obvious highlight, though I'd like to mention the loveliness of the scene right before that breakdown. Watching Elisabeth search through her pockets for that phone number, the smile that lights up her face when she finds it - so beautiful, a surge of hope essential for the pain that comes directly after to register as hard as it does. And then, there's Torres, my personal pick, whose ice cream interlude is as moving as you've described, Elisa. However, for her best moment, I'd go with Eunice's return after who knows how many days kept imprisoned, isolated, questioned, and tortured, psychologically if not physically. That moment in the shower, the unselfconscious need for comfort immediately repressed when she sees one of her kids, says so much about who this woman is, about the role she has chosen in the world, the backbone of strength she's willing herself to embody for her family's sake. 

My addition to the lineup would be Marianne Jean-Baptiste's mercurial work in Hard Truths, the opposite of Torres' restraint yet masterful, nevertheless. It feels wrong to wish the first trans performer nominated for Best Actress wasn't in the lineup, but I've never liked the performance, and the person responsible has only made rooting for her even more difficult. In my ideal world, this record would have been broken by the likes of Daniela Vega in A Fantastic Woman - an actual Latina trans actress who can sing! - or Trace Lysette in Monica. 

Anyway, I've loved discussing these performances with you. Indeed, these volleys have been one of the season's great pleasures. Thank you, guys!

THE SUBSTANCE | © MUBI

Previous Oscar Volleys:

• BEST DIRECTOR, with Eric Blume & Nick Taylor
• BEST ACTOR, with Eric Blume & Eurocheese
• BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS, with Cláudio Alves & Nathaniel Rogers
• BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR, with Eric Blume & Nick Taylor
• BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY, with Abe Friedtanzer & Eurocheese
• BEST ANIMATED FEATURE, with Cláudio Alves & Nathaniel Rogers
• BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE, with Cláudio Alves & Ben Miller
• BEST INTERNATIONAL FILM, with Eric Blume & Nathaniel Rogers
• BEST COSTUME DESIGN, with Cláudio Alves & Nick Taylor
• BEST MAKEUP & HAIRSTYLING, with Cláudio Alves & Eurocheese
• BEST LIVE-ACTION and DOCUMENTARY SHORT, with Cláudio Alves & Ben Miller

Comments

[TOM]

I think the thing that hurts Ervio’s chances is that Wicked was greedily cut into two films. The mindset must be that we’re missing the Whole performance. Couldn’t like not voting for Judy Garland in the chopped up ASIB when you know that something is missing here the Entire performance. Possibly thinking that is Wicked 2 is good next year, you can reward Ervio for both films. If it isn’t-well, audiences sat through 3 1/2 hours of The Brutalist. We wanted an intermission for Wicked and would’ve been happy to see Ervio’s entire performance in one sitting.

[Sad Man]

I'm rooting for Demi. Sure, it's not the "best" performance of the lineup, but Oscar wins rarely are. And narrative aside, I really want a true horror performace to win.

As much as I like Mikey, it's too soon to give her the statue. Also, people have complained about Culkin playing himself or the same role always, but Madison has played different versions of the same role too. Very effectively and in a very fun way, but still, they are all kinda similar.

Torres, I would enjoy this win in terms of narrative but not performance. I thought she was solid, or even very good, but I wasn't blown away by it.

Erivo, no thank you.

Gascon, she's not bad in the movie, but she's not great either. So, also a no for me.

[Finbar McBride]

I find the absence of the outcry for a second Black Best Actress winner to be puzzling. We have had only one Black actress win the leading role Oscar in the 97 year history of the Academy. Cynthia Erivo has now been nominated twice. She stars in a hugely successful Best Picture nominee. Where is her vocal support?