First Oscar Predictions of the Year - Complete!

Whew. That took longer than expected but you can now see all of the "April Foolish" first-round predictions for this Oscar year, albeit compiled in May & June and delivered to you in early July. Since the first wave of 20 categories takes so long to compile (updates are easier) we should note up front that James Vanderbilt's Nuremberg, another film centered on the Nuremberg Trials, was scheduled for a November 2025 release after the weeks of research for these charts so it is not yet included.  That said we can hardly claim it a certainty as a competitor. World War II is no longer automatic "Bait" for voters, Vanderbilt is not (yet) an Oscar player and though the cast has four previously nominated actors none are the sort that Oscar voters ALWAYS watch regardless. Anyway, we'll save it for the next up date.

What follows are a dozen key questions were asking ourselves in July about the upcoming competition before things really heat up during the fall film festivals. We've love to hear your thoughts on these 12 questions...

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Robert Altman @ 100: "Short Cuts" The Film

a two part piece on Short Cuts (1993) to relaunch our Robert Altman tribute

by Eric Blume 

It’s a joy to rewatch Robert Altman’s 1993 masterpiece Short Cuts over thirty years later.  I hadn’t seen the film since seeing it in theaters, back in the sweet days where Fine Line Features was the “arthouse” division of New Line Features, a mini-studio from which so many fine films sprung.  

Upon revisit, it’s easy to see how this film is a perfect illustration of Lightning in a Bottle.  Among its incredible cast of actors are future Oscar winners (Frances McDormand, Robert Downey Jr., Tim Robbins, Julianne Moore), past and future nominees (Bruce Davison, Anne Archer, Lily Tomlin, Jennifer Jason Leigh), plus some other terrific actors who are always rapturous to watch (Fred Ward, Lili Taylor, Madeleine Stowe, Peter Gallagher, Matthew Modine).  And then pepper in Tom Waits and Huey Lewis!  The talent in this movie is off-the-charts and each actor feels individually inspired.  I’m not sure what Altman did to get them so invested in their small, individual stories but together they truly pack a wallop...

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Oscar Volleys: Best Director Looks Like Baker v Corbet

The Oscar Volleys are back for some post-nomination talks. Today, Eric Blume and Nick Taylor discuss the Best Actor race...

A COMPLETE UNKNOWN | © Searchlight Pictures

ERIC: Nick, it's time for us to go tete à tete encore with another Oscar volley, this time for Best Director.  Before we get into the race itself, which seems probably between Brady Corbet and Sean Baker, how do you feel about the nominated five?

 

NICK: It's a respectable bunch! Generally speaking, I am a fan of the sheer ambition represented by everyone who is not James Mangold, and the success at realizing their vision represented by everyone who is not Jacques Audiard...

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Split Decision: “Emilia Pérez”

In the Split Decision series, two (or three) of our writers face off on an Oscar-nominated movie one loves and the other doesn't. Today, Nick Taylor, Lynn Lee, and Juan Carlos Ojano discuss Emilia Pérez...

NICK TAYLOR: Hello, Lynn and Juan Carlos! I’m really excited to start our conversation on Emilia Pérez, surely the most divisive of this year’s Oscar contenders. I am entering this talk as our resident hater - I admire the nutty swings this movie is taking, though very little of that admiration extends to how those nutty swings are executed by Jacques Audiard and his collaborators. Still, I wanna hear what makes the movie work for you guys, or at least makes these experiments worthwhile. Lynn, as the person in this conversation who likes Emilia Pérez the most, do you wanna take the baton?

LYNN LEE: Haha, is it even safe to admit you like Emilia Pérez these days?...

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Split Decision: "The Brutalist"

In the Split Decision series, two of our writers face off on an Oscar-nominated movie one loves and the other doesn't. Today, Nick Taylor and Abe Friedtanzer discuss The Brutalist...

NICK TAYLOR: Hi Abe! I hope the cinematic year of 2024 and the numerical year of 2025 have been treating you well! Today we’re here to talk about The Brutalist, which is one of my favorite films from 2024 and one of the most nominated films at this year’s Oscars. Because this is the Split Decision series, I’m gonna guess you are not a fan of this film, or you’re at least more ambivalent about it than I am. But an object this self-consciously huge deserves to be argued about, and I would love for you to start us off by sharing what you think of The Brutalist.

ABE FRIEDTANZER: Hey Nick! I will say that I didn’t hate this film, and even found much to admire about it. I saw it at a morning press screening at the Toronto International Film Festival back in September, so early enough to not have heard much about it and to be able to fully appreciate it. I knew very little of the story, and so naturally my interest was piqued. As soon as the film ended, I wanted to research the true story, only to find out that its events were invented. I had seen Brady Corbet’s previous film Vox Lux (which I hated with a passion) as well as The Sleepwalker (directed by Mona Fastvold with a screenplay by her and Corbet, a role reversal of their duties on this film), which I liked much more. From what I could find, and have been able to since, it doesn’t seem like either of them are Jewish or have any Jewish heritage. Those two factors have irreversibly impacted my perception of the film and made it hard to truly process it in a positive way...

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