First Round Oscar Predix - Picture / Director

by Nathaniel R

Bradley Cooper as Leonard Bernstein in "Maestro" (Netflix)

As noted in Best Actor & Best Supporting Actor, we're pretending as if the strike will be resolved and movies will actually arrive later this year (because if we don't predictions will be nightmarishly impossible). So let's look at Best Picture and Best Director. What might the future hold for us in these two categories? 

EARLY BIRD DIRECTORS 
It's possible that we've already seen 60% of the Best Director list (Greta Gerwig, Chris Nolan, Celine Song) but that would be highly unusual. This isn't 1972 where the two biggest contenders (Cabaret & The Godfather) had already been popular for literally over a year when they dominated Oscar night. The Oscar formulas and awards season release patterns have calcified in the half century since then. The earth still orbits the sun at the same speed as it did decades earlier, but time (at least in pop culture) has sped up considerably; you're an "old" movie much quicker now... 

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Oscar Volley: Let's dig into that Best Director field... who should win?

Team Experience is discussing the various Oscar categories. Here's Eric Blume and Nick Taylor discussing Best Director.

Portrait of a young director via THE FABELMANS

ERIC BLUME: Hi Nick! I'm excited to talk Best Director with you.  This year's line-up, while I'd swap out a name or two in there personally, is extraordinarily strong, perhaps one of our best ever?  Before we get to each one, who were personal favorites of yours that didn't make the ballot?

NICK TAYLOR: It’s a very strong lineup! Only one of the names Oscar picked would be close to my own ballot, but I see plenty of strengths in the work the Academy nominated, and the competitiveness of this field leading up to nomination morning means nobody coasted to their slots...

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Split Decision: "The Banshees of Inisherin"

Team Experience is pairing up to debate the merits of each of the big awards season movies this year. Here’s Abe Friedtanzer & Eric Blume on one of the Oscar frontrunners...

ERIC:  Abe, here we are again with another split decision.  But unlike our discussion about The Whale, which you loved and I didn't, we're swapping sides for The Banshees of Inisherin.  I absolutely loved this film.  I'd go as far as to say it's close to a masterpiece.  It's a piercing and painful meditation on loneliness, a heartbreaking and lyrical stare in the face at death.  Martin McDonagh is tackling The Big Themes with ferocity and honesty, and I was deeply moved.  But let's start with why you didn't care for the film...

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DGA Nominees: Field, Kosinski, McDonagh, Spielberg, and The Daniels

by Nathaniel R

Todd Field and Cate Blanchett for "Tar". Photo by Matt Licari/Invision/AP

The Directors Guild of America released their nominations yesterday. In their main Oscar-correlative prize they hewed very close to what is seen as the "top five" for Oscar's Best Picture race. Historically speaking, in a counter-intuitive twist, the DGA nominations each year have a closer correlation to eventual Best Picture nominations than the Best Director shortlist. That was of course easier to notice before the new world of the "Expanded Best Picture" lineup of the past 14 years. The exception to this general principle of 'if it's up for the DGA it'll be up for Best Picture' certainty is the nomination for Todd Field for TÁR. While the film has a great shot at making the 10 wide Best Picture list, it's not generally considered one of the top five contenders and could theoretically be snubbed still, given that more than 10 films still seem plausible as contenders. As a result Field is looking very strong in Best Director as the Academy votes on their nominations this week...

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Team Experience Predictions Chart - Round 4 - Post Holidays, Pre Awards Shows

We're polling the Team Film Experience on where the Oscar race stands. This week Best Picture, Director, and the Acting and Writing categories.

It has been over a month since we’ve checked in on the directing, acting and writing categories. Since then, Avatar has soared at the box office, Babylon has flopped and both the Golden Globes and Critics Choice Awards have announced their nominations. Some categories look completely different than they did at the end of November. Others, funny enough, remain the same. One category has a contender who is unanimously on the top of everyone’s predictions… and it’s not the one you think. 

Check out our predictions after the jump…

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