Team Experience Oscar Predictions: Pre-Globe Jitters

by Cláudio Alves

Wake up, Ani. The Team Experience sees lots of gold in your near future!Mere hours before the Golden Globes kickstart the televised part of the season and crown the first big precursor winners, let's unveil the Team Experience Oscar predictions. As in years past, various members of The Film Experience's writing team were asked to deliver their Academy Award predictions, contributing to some collective punditry. This season, you can count on my best guesses and those of Eric Blume, baby Clyde, Eurocheese, Abe Friedtanzer, Christopher James, Ben Miller, Nick Taylor, plus the one and only Nathaniel Rogers. For this first set of team predictions, we've focused on the so-called "above the line" categories, plus Animated and International Film for good measure. In other words, the races that tonight's ceremony might shake up…

Before we start, some explanations are in order. For each category, there are two spreadsheets. The first shows each writer's predicted Oscar lineup plus two alternatives, all ranked in order of likelihood according to each pundit. Then, a second spreadsheet shows the result of combining all those predictions through a point system, creating a Team Experience group prediction. Hopefully, this is clear, and the charts intuitive enough. Click on them to see the spreadsheets at their full size. The first category is the big one, Best Picture.

As discussed in the last of our pre-nomination Oscar Volleys, we're heading into the first round of AMPAS votes with a nice set of locked contenders. Almost everyone on the team ranked Anora, Conclave, Wicked, The Brutalist, and Emilia Pérez as the top five vote-getters. The one outlier was Baby Clyde, who placed the French musical in ninth place. After those, Dune: Part Two and Sing Sing were also predicted by everyone. A Real Pain is almost there, with only Nathaniel placing it outside his predicted ten, while A Complete Unknown and The Substance dispute the last few spots in most folk's golden divinations. Nickel Boys and September 5 were predicted by two writers each, while All We Imagine as Light, Gladiator II, and I'm Still Here all received one mention as dark horses on the outside of the final lineup.

All in all, though Anora and Conclave are the frontrunners, points-wise, Sean Baker's Palme d'Or champion tops four writers' predictions while the first edition of Vatican's Drag Race stops at three first-place guesses. Still, it's worth mentioning these are not predictions for victors, only for the likelihood of securing a nomination. For example, I think the Best Picture race might come down to a musical showdown, yet picked Anora as the most likely nominee. There's no stopping that screwball tragicomedy, from the Croisette to the Oscar stage.

In Best Director, only Sean Baker and Brady Corbet made it into everyone's predictions. Jacques Audiard came closest but wasn't even mentioned in Abe's alternatives, placing him outside the race's top contenders. Overall, there's a sense that anything could happen beyond the two American auteurs at the top. Tonight's Golden Globes might change up the race, depending on who gets the chance to deliver a speech and plead their case, move viewers and voters alike. 

It's worth mentioning that this group of eleven is quite international, which only reflects the Directors Branch's taste of late. Baker, Corbet, Ross, Chu, and Mangold are all American, while Coralie Fargeat and Jacques Audiard come from French cinema. Denis Villeneuve is from Canada, Edward Berger from Germany, Mohammad Rasoulof from Iran, and Payal Kapadia from India.

These predictions were closed before the NSFC crowned Marianne Jean-Baptiste their winner, giving her the critics awards trifecta that has only once resulted in an Oscar snub – Sally Hawkins in 2008's Happy-Go-Lucky. Will the curse continue with Mike Leigh's latest leading lady, or will the main precedent prevail? For the Team Experience, it seems she's just outside the Oscar five, but results might have changed drastically if we'd delayed these predictions a day or two.

Right now, only Mikey Madison and Demi Moore are predicted by all writers, while Karla Sofía Gascón is lumped with the Almost There crowd in Eric and Eurocheese's predictions. The biggest fall from grace of the season has to be Angelina Jolie, who, after missing the BAFTA longlist, seems much more vulnerable than she did just a week ago. If she wins tonight, her chances might jump up. So much seems to depend on the Golden Globes' Best Actress picks.

Best Actor is less interesting than Actress (a.k.a. business as usual). Every writer predicted the same top four with only slight variations in their ranking. Timothée Chalamet, Ralph Fiennes, Adrien Brody, and Colman Domingo should all feel pretty safe going into Oscar nomination morning. But that fifth spot is up in the air. Daniel Craig is the consensus pick, but Queer has been completely overlooked in other areas, indicating a lack of enthusiasm for Luca Guadagnino's second 2024 drama. In comparison, A Real Pain and The Apprentice keep popping up and garnering more industry support, making their leading men feel like dark horse threats. Note that every Sebastian Stan prediction was for his Donald Trump portrayal, not his equally brilliant work in A Different Man. 

That said, what would happen if he wins the Globe in Comedy for the latter film? That race might dictate who jumps ahead of the pack in the pursuit of that elusive fifth spot. Just notice the writers wavering between those men – Eisenberg, Powell, and Grant – as alternative predictions or potential spoilers.

In Best Supporting Actress, Zoë Saldaña and Ariana Grande are the only safe bets for their respective musicals. If you want an actual supporting player rather than a co-lead, Isabella Rossellini is best positioned, though there is an unbeliever among our flock, plus some folks ranking her below Felicity Jones and Margaret Qualley. In many ways, the actresses placing seventh to eight in our group predictions depend on how much the Academy endorses their projects. They wouldn't be coattail nominations, per se, but feel contingent on a broad embrace of Emilia Pérez, Nickel Boys, and A Complete Unknown. Danielle Deadwyler is the odd one out, but she might still surprise us all. Weirder things have happened. 

Kieran Culkin is this year's big sweeper, locked and loaded to take that Best Supporting Actor Oscar. Guy Pearce is also close to lock status in many of our writers' minds, but the remaining four spots feel like a tight race between five men. Denzel Washington may get there based on his star power alone, but all the other contenders are heavily relying on the Academy's love for their pictures as the final step in consolidating a nomination. 

In this case, the Golden Globes will affect nothing. More critical are the SAG nominations. If they embrace Sing Sing in their ensemble category, it might mean good things for Clarence Maclin in the Supporting Actor race, even if they don't nominate him individually.

So, Anora and A Real Pain feel like Best Original Screenplay locks. Beyond them, it's a mess of possibilities. Of these nine screenplays, only Payal Kapadia's All We Imagine as Light was exclusively mentioned as an alternate. All the others were predicted in the Oscar top five by at least one writer, making for a confusing race. At this point, the collective predictions point toward an embrace of auteurs, with three strong contenders also vying for Best Director honors. 

But there's also a lot relying on narrative and degrees of industry-wide support. Will Challengers prove popular despite its slim chances of a Best Picture nomination? Will The Seed of a Sacred Fig's behind-the-scenes story secure the vote? Will The Substance score the rare writing nod for horror? We must wait and see.

Every writer predicted Conclave and Sing Sing in their Best Adapted Screenplay guesses. And yet, with rankings considered, Emilia Pérez ties it despite Eurocheese putting outside his predicted five. Notably, The Room Next Door keeps hanging on after its catastrophic BAFTA longlist performance. There's also Nathaniel's hunch that The Wild Robot might be closer to the Oscar nomination than many pundits are presuming.

Speaking of The Wild Robot, that Dreamworks delight is firmly in the lead of our group predictions for Best Animated Feature. The only writer placing it below first-place was Nick Taylor. Flow is close behind, and Inside Out 2 is after it. Memoir of a Snail is a bit farther from the top, but it was still predicted by all writers. In fact, I was the only person differing from the agreed-upon lineup, where Wallace & Gromit: Vengeance Most Fowl takes the last slot. Maybe I'm being pessimistic, but that quintet seems too good to be true. Also, Moana 2's box office numbers feel too big to ignore.

Finally, we have the Team Experience Best International Film predictions. Everyone agrees on the top three contenders – from France, Germany, and Brazil – but things get a bit more complicated after the podium. Denmark's The Girl With the Needle and Italy's Vermiglio are next in line. Still, multiple folks are going with Thailand's How to Make Millions Before Grandma Dies, Ireland's Kneecap, or Canada's Universal Language instead. Even Norway's Armand got a fifth-place prediction from Christopher James. This category often surprises, so don't be too shocked if something not on this list ends the season among the nominees. Even though we managed to mention twelve out of fifteen shortlisted titles between us!

What do you make of our team effort? Add your predictions in the comments!

Comments

[Sad Man]

BEST PICTURE: I have a feeling that Nickel Boys will make it in, meaning that A Real Pain will most likely be the one left out. Wish it was Wicked instead.

BEST DIRECTOR: It would be kind of surprising, but not really, if Fargeat is snubbed here. Female director in charge of a feminist film with lots of over the top style that's celebrated but not taken that seriously by some...sounds a lot like Gerwig. I'm not the biggest The Substance fan, more than anything because of script issues, but Fargeat directs the shit out of that movie. She 100% deserves a spot. Hoping Berger or Audiard will be snubbed.

BEST ACTOR: Those seem to be the locked 5. Wish Stan could make it for A Different Man, but seems unlikely. I would take out Domingo in a heartbeat.

BEST ACTRESS: Jean-Baptiste, Torres and Kidman would be amazing surprises. At least give us Jean-Baptiste. Get rid of Jolie and Erivo, and maybe even Gascon.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR: Rooting for a surprise Jeremy Strong nod, but very unlikely.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS: It's a solid likeup. As long as Gomez is snubbed I'll be happy.

It's kind of a rinse and repeat in almost every category. So I'll just add one more:

BEST ANIMATED FILM: Please nominate Memoir of a Snail. I am shocked how little talk this amazing film has generated. I don't get the love for The Wild Robot, which is unoriginal, basic and derivative. Can kind of say the same thing about Flow,and its PS2 animation doesn't help. At the same time it's nice to see something outside the Hollywood studio that's not a typical animated film be recognized, though.

[Gallavich]

It's so funny (or trashy, maybe). Saldana, Grande and Qualley are my 3 favorites leading actress performances of the year and they're gonna all compete in supporting.

[Mr Ripley79]

I am going with acting only for now

Actor Stan,Domingo,Chalamet,Fiennes,Brody

Actress Demi,Baptiste,Gascon,Madison,Kidman

S Actor Maclin,Norton,Culkin,Strong,Pearce

S Actress Grande,Saldana,Jones,Austin,Rossellini

[Robert G]

The BAFTAs give me a lot more hope for The Substance making it in key categories. We'll see what happens at the Globes tonight. I'm seeing this with a similar trajectory to Promising Young Woman, at least with nominations. This is a passion vote kind of film.

[TomG]

For me, Wicked is a big question mark. I do believe that it will get in the category of best picture and even that it has a chance of winning but I think there is a 50/50 chance it under/over performs. There is a section of voters who will wait next year to see if it sticks the landing (also why I don't think Dune Part 2 will win big this year either) However, there is also a section well versed in theatre who say that act 2 (part 2 of the film) is a mess and cannot be cinematically fixed so honor part 1 now while we have the chance. I'm not sure which faction will win out come Oscar nomination morning.

Also a question mark is best actress. It's so up in the air and the SAG nominations might keep us all guessing (remember that Sarah Silverman nomination that came out of nowhere? )

[Cláudio Alves]

TomG -- Regarding SAG Best Actress, my hunch is that Zendaya shows up for CHALLENGERS.

[Frank Zappa]

I was probably crazy not to predict either Chalamet project for Best Picture yesterday evening, but I just can't see Nickel Boys, A Real Pain and September 5 missing. Ask me again tomorrow.

[TomG]

Claudio- Zendaya would be a great pick. I'm imaging Adams and Anderson maybe getting in as surprise nominees. But there are really 12 people fighting for 5 spots.

[NATHANIEL R]

Honestly BEST INTERNATIONAL FEATURE is going to be heartbreaking this year. There are so many good titles in that finalist list that it's going to be sad whoever makes it. I am not advocating for this to expand to 10 slots (since i think Best Picture should be 5) but the optics do look weird !