Oscar Volleys: Best Picture is all about Narratives
Saturday, January 4, 2025 at 9:00PM Here’s Cláudio Alves and Ben Miller on the Best Picture race...
THE BRUTALIST, Brady Corbet | © A24
CLÁUDIO: Hello Ben, it's time to discuss the biggest category of them all - Best Picture.
This year, I'm sad to say I'm not especially passionate about the top contenders. Indeed, taking a glance at my rankings, it's likely that not a single nominee even cracks my top 25. Then again, miracles do happen once in a while, even when all seems said and done. Even so, imagining an AMPAS lineup without Anora, The Brutalist, Conclave, Emilia Pérez, or Wicked seems increasingly difficult. In those times before the category's re-expansion to ten nominees, these would be the five I figure most folks would be predicting. Do you concur?
BEN: I am really enjoying the variance in this year's race…
The last few years have either had a runaway winner well before the nominees were even announced (Oppenheimer, EEAAO, Nomadland), or the consensus was a head-to-head battle between two films (CODA vs. Power of the Dog, Parasite vs. 1917). While I do agree that those top five would probably be the nominees in previous years, none of them have taken the lead as far as victory. I find that to be a unique change-of-pace. Frankly, I can see a world of four or five films potentially winning Best Picture as of today, which we couldn't have said since...never?
I have a different question: which is going to be the "no, but actually" film where everyone turns on it. I thought for sure it was going to be Emilia Pérez, but every critic's group keeps giving it nomination after nomination. Globes aside, is this really the film the world is going to laud all the way to the Oscars? I personally have a multitude of thematic and performance problems with the film, but that's just me. I can see a world where "no, but actually" crowd turns on The Brutalist. This category is all about narratives anyway.
EMILIA PÉREZ, Jacques Audiard | © Netflix
CLÁUDIO: If you read my TIFF coverage, you know my feelings on Emilia Pérez, so I won't say more about that. Regarding your question, I feel it has to be one of the festival hits whose buzz was built on critical notices. One of those flicks that haven't yet faced a wide audience. Those platform releases, limited or just qualifying, waiting for some big nominations to expand. So that would make The Brutalist the big candidate for a significant tide change, as I don't imagine Nickel Boys will suffer from the same controversies that might yet befall Corbet's epic. But even then, I don't think it'll impact its nomination choices.
What other options are there for this phenomenon? Maybe September 5, once it hits digital. Still, those wouldn't be cases of backlash so much as more people getting to have an opinion on them other than a rarefied exclusive bunch. However, I wonder if we could be headed into backlash territory if something suddenly starts to win big - the Globes are almost here, after all - and is perceived as unworthy. Wicked, perchance? I could see that hurting its winning chances, but not so much its performance on nomination morning.
Regarding the openness of the race, we should remind ourselves that many of those two contender face-offs only consolidated after the major precursors had their say. For all intents and purposes, we still haven't seen the televised awards, and not even the guilds have started handing out their prizes. There's still time for this thing to reduce itself to just a couple of contenders. Before that, however, I'm hoping for some wildcard surprise at the nomination stage. Which brings me to the matter of international contenders.
THE SEED OF THE SACRED FIG, Mohammad Rasoulof | © NEON
With Audiard's musical as good as locked, will there be space for another world cinema representative? You speak of narratives, and there could be no better story than that of The Seed of the Sacred Fig and Mohammad Rasoulof's struggle to get it made and out of Iran. And then there's All We Imagine As Light, whose snub by India's submission committee has generated much press, painting it as an underdog getting its justice. Finally, Sony Pictures Classics is leaning into I'm Still Here in their campaign efforts. A well-timed speech with a political angle might be enough to create a mediatic path to the nomination. What say you, Ben? Am I crazy to even consider these films as longshot possibilities?
BEN: I LOVE all the International Film shortlisted with the notable exception of the aforementioned Emilia Pérez. I continually forget that it is even in consideration for International Film, mostly because it had a major release on Netflix, and has two very famous American celebrities in the main trio. It doesn't feel in any way French, and contains zero spoken French. Audiard is the only reason it's France's entry. As for the other films, I don't see a world where both The Seed of the Sacred Fig AND All We Imagine As Light make the top 10 (though both make my personal top 10 of the year). The Oscars have this stupid idea that they can only do one of something.
They are fine with a Hollywood-adjacent version of a foreign language film (Minari, The Zone of Interest, Triangle of Sadness), but they only have room for one ACTUAL International feature (Parasite, Drive My Car, Anatomy of a Fall). With Emilia Pérez pretty much locked in, I think they'll only have room for one. I don't think there is a wrong answer, but All We Imagine As Light is much more palatable on a viewer, despite Sacred Fig being much more powerful.
CLÁUDIO: Maybe Emilia Pérez is our Zone of Interest and something else can be our Anatomy of a Fall? Please, let me hope.
BEN: On the flipside, is there a film that everyone is assuming will be there that you have some worries about on that Friday morning? Everyone is just assuming Sing Sing is going to be there, but I still don't know if anyone in the real world has actually seen it, despite being out for a while.
SING SING, Greg Kwedar | © A24
CLÁUDIO: I don't think Sing Sing is that vulnerable, mainly because it seems like actors' catnip. Lest we forget, they are still the Academy's largest branch. The only way I'd imagine Greg Kwedar's picture falling from my present predictions would be in reaction to a flotsam SAG performance.
In contrast, I find people are being more erroneously optimistic regarding The Substance and Nickel Boys. The former has been a hard sell as an awards contender since the season's start and, right now, it seems like it might have peaked too early with critical honors. As for Nickel Boys, I feel its radical aesthetic will put a lot of voters off. Our own Nathaniel is unconvinced by its merits. Weirdly enough, I could see it getting Director, Adapted Screenplay and Cinematography nominations without a Best Picture placement in tow.
The Oscars have been changing and growing more adventurous, but they're still prone to celebrating more traditional fare than its alternative. Which is my way of saying A Complete Unknown is coming for that Best Picture nod. Club Chalamet will be thrilled.
BEN: Ugh...I feel like I've been taking crazy pills in regards to A Complete Unknown. While my compatriots are calling it a transformative experience and better than other musical biopics, I see the same pratfalls and problems that these films always have. He's too much of an enigmatic "genius" without faults other than his towering genius. It's the unfortunate balance these days of telling a measure of truth and not pissing off the subject so you can keep the music rights. I thought it was terrible, but I also think you are correct. If The BP lineup was 10 back in 2005, Walk the Line would have had a Best Picture nomination. Chalamet is well-positioned for his first statue in Best Actor. Norton seems in line for Supporting. It's all starting to coalesce to a nomination for the film, despite my desire for that not to happen.
THE SUBSTANCE, Coralie Fargeat | © MUBI
Where are you on The Substance? I have been avoiding actually predicting it because I just thought the Academy would find it too bizarre or bloody. But, it's hard to argue against the chances for Moore and Qualley (and maybe even Fargeat) at this point. But that doesn't mean it will end up in the BP ten. I think it's extremely vulnerable while I also believe it could get 4-5 other nominations. Where do you stand?
CLÁUDIO: I really like The Substance, as folks can attest through my reviews here and at the International Cinephile Society. That said, I've been skeptical of its Oscar chances since catching it on the opening night of this year's TIFF Midnight Madness. It's just difficult to imagine the notoriously anti-horror Academy going to bat for such a gory entry in the genre, one that pulls from such un-Oscar-y delights as the vulgar spectacles of Stuart Gordon, Frank Henenlotter and Brian Yuzna. And yet, the guilds have been going gaga for Fargeat's Hollywood-set fantasia of self-hatred and the feminine grotesque. At this point, I feel safer predicting nods for Makeup, Actress, and Supporting Actress than Picture, Director, or Original Screenplay. However, if it resonates with enough voters, I see it securing all six categories. Its absence from a number of Oscar shortlists makes me less inclined to predict it in the big race, but one never knows. If it gets in, it'll make Oscar history, that's for sure.
But returning to the matter of Chalamet, I agree with what you say about A Complete Unknown while also thinking none of that will impact it negatively in the race for gold. It'll be an interesting feat for the young star, who'll have two films vying for the Best Picture trophy if we accept Dune: Part Two as a near-sure thing. I'm curious if his costar in that sci-fi epic is close to getting the same double-dip honors. What does the industry think of Challengers when all is said and done? It's been getting more recognition than expected, especially for such an early release. Could Zendaya's first movie with Luca Guadagnino be a dark horse we're all underestimating? Tell me what you think of those messy hotties playing with balls and each others' hearts.
BEN: That's where I think the most intriguing parts of this race play out. For the sake of argument, let's say the six of Anora, The Brutalist, Conclave, Emilia Pérez, Wicked, and Dune: Part Two are securely in. That still leaves four spots for around 10 films to potentially butt their way in. I think that's an awesome testament to the openness of this year's race. Let's take a film like A Real Pain. Kieran Culkin can begin preparing his Supporting Actor (despite being a clear lead) right now. Many pundits have it competing for the statue in Original Screenplay. So, is it just going to be left out of the Best Picture race completely? That doesn't really track.
CHALLENGERS, Luca Guadagnino | © MGM Amazon Studios
What about the aforementioned and probably underestimated Challengers, which most people aren't even considering? Is there a film like Hard Truths that voters got to watch late? What do we make about Nosferatu turning into a financial success? Will voters remember 2000 and default to Gladiator II? There are a ton of other options to fill out the bottom half of the ballot. It frankly would not surprise me in the least to nail the top six and miss the bottom four.
You talked at the opening about not being in love with most of the top-line contenders. What would be your personal ballot?
CLÁUDIO: Well, many of my favorites will probably not even appear on the Academy's eligibility list because their distributors are not bothering to submit them in the first place. This happens every year, hence my assumption. Still, I might as well mention what I consider the best films released in American cinemas during 2024. Consider this a preview of what will eventually be a whole piece on my personal top...ten, twenty? My unranked picks would be...
ALL WE IMAGINE AS LIGHT, Payal Kapadia
BABYGIRL, Halina Reijn
CLOSE YOUR EYES, Víctor Erice
DO NOT EXPECT TOO MUCH FROM THE END OF THE WORLD, Radu Jude
HERE, Bas Devos
INSIDE THE YELLOW COCOON SHELL, Phạm Thiên Ân
MAMBAR PIERRETTE, Rosine Mbakam
SAMSARA, Lois Patiño
SOUNDTRACK TO A COUP D'ÉTAT, Johan Grimonprez
THE HUMAN SURGE 3, Eduardo Williams
If you want it to be more realistic, you can change a few of the more far-fetched possibilities with Vermiglio, Hard Truths, I'm Still Here, Dahomey, Nosferatu, and No Other Land.
NOSFERATU, Rober Eggers | © Focus Features
But what about you, Ben? If you were an Oscar voter and all your favorites were eligible, what would your Best Picture lineup look like?
BEN: I'm slightly more conventional.
ALL WE IMAGINE AS LIGHT, Payal Kapadia
THE BRUTALIST, Brady Corbet
A DIFFERENT MAN, Aaron Schimberg
HARD TRUTHS, Mike Leigh
I SAW THE TV GLOW, Jane Schoenbrun
NICKEL BOYS, RaMell Ross
NO OTHER LAND, Yuval Abraham, Basel Adra, Hamdan Ballal & Rachel Szor
NOSFERATU, Robert Eggers
THE SEED OF THE SACRED FIG, Mohammad Rasoulof
SING SING, Greg Kwedar
In other words, I concur with your pick of All We Imagine As Light, and would add The Seed of the Sacred Fig and Nosferatu as my big choices. Those films moved me and stuck with me long after the credits rolled. I also want to mention the brilliance of Mike Leigh's Hard Truths as well as the incredible documentary No Other Land, a film that needs to be seen by as many people as possible.
CLÁUDIO: I love your dream ballot and would certainly love to see it on Oscar nomination morning. Thank you for sharing and who cares about being conventional or more outré? What matters is our love for the movies.
But now, shall we do predictions?
ANORA, Sean Baker | © NEON
BEN: As far as how I think the BP ten will actually shake out...this is what I have.
LOCKS/SHOULD BE FINE
- ANORA
- CONCLAVE
- THE BRUTALIST
- EMILIA PEREZ
- WICKED
- DUNE: PART TWO
SHAKY, BUT KIND OF SECURE
- SING SING
FINAL SLOTS
- NICKEL BOYS
- A COMPLETE UNKNOWN
- THE SUBSTANCE
At the end of the day, I think the overwhelming passion will push The Substance over the edge. What say you, my friend?
CLÁUDIO: As for my predictions, I'm currently going with...
LOCKS
- ANORA
- EMILIA PÉREZ
- WICKED
- CONCLAVE
- THE BRUTALIST
THE LIKELY CHALAMET DOUBLE FEATURE
- DUNE: PART TWO
- A COMPLETE UNKNOWN
THE ACTORS BRANCH WILL GET THEM THERE
- A REAL PAIN
- SING SING
- SEPTEMBER 5
RUNNERS-UP, JUST ON THE CUSP OF A NOMINATION
- THE SUBSTANCE
- NICKEL BOYS
And I guess that's it for the pre-nomination Oscar volleys. It's been wonderful talking to you, Ben. I feel we're more in agreement this year than in seasons past, though we'll see how those feelings remain when we get to the post-nominations Split Decision convos. Until then, fingers crossed for our favorites!
CONCLAVE, Edward Berger | © Focus Features
OTHER VOLLEYS:
Reader Comments (6)
People love it or hate it: The Brutalist, Emilia Pérez, Wicked, A Complete Unknown, Nickel Boys, Challengers
Generally liked/admired (I think one of these will actually win): Anora, Conclave, Sing Sing, Dune: Part Two, A Real Pain, September 5
Not supposed to be here: The Substance
My pre-Globes, post-BAFTA longlists predictions:
Anora
The Brutalist
Conclave
Emilia Pérez
Nickel Boys
A Real Pain
September 5
Sing Sing
The Substance
Wicked
While the nominees are starting to fall into place, the fact that there is still no clear frontrunner for the win at this point is interesting, although I hesitate to say exciting because I kind of suspect the lack of a real frontrunner is due to there not being a huge amount of passion for any of the contenders. At the moment I’d say Conclave and Anora are in front, but neither feels like the kind of film generates a strong consensus about it winning Best Picture, so I suspect we may get several different winners throughout the precursor season.
Part of me thinks Sing Sing could actually emerge as something of an underdog favorite in the race assuming it gets the nomination in the first place. It could be a CODA-like situation in that it was pegged as a possible nominee from its relatively early release but not seriously thought of as a potential winner until late in the season, once the other contenders lost some steam and the industry settled on it. If it wins Best Ensemble at SAG, watch out.
Emilia Perez and Wicked are locks for nominations, but I have a feeling both with slightly underperform overall, with each of them having at least one surprise snub. I’m expecting nomination totals in the 7-9 range rather than the 10-12 range for these films.
I do not believe there is such a concept as a "snub" in a preferential ballot. Every nominee had a fair number of #1 votes meaning at least 5% of the voters believed that person or film was the Best or was convinced in some way to deem them the Best. I also do not see more than one studio with two Best Picture nominees so either A Real Pain (Searchlight) or Sing Sing (A24) is an uphill battle. I cannot foresee both Paramount and UA/Amazon out. Back to my main point, it is better to get 800 #1 votes and 101 #2 votes than 1500 #2 votes and 0-10 #1 votes.
Contenders I've watched til now:
Wicked. I would give it everything. I really can't understand why a lot of people here didn't loved it (even if I suspect that most of them didn't watched it all).
Emilia Perez. I'd prefer not understand why people didn't loved it.
The Substance. If it is not among best picture nominees I want it in a museum.
Anora. The most lovely ride of the year.
Dune Part 2. I'm ok if it's in, but this time I would really love (as I desired for the first one) to see the costumes awarded.
Conclave. If it's a boost for Fiennes Oscar I'm ok. For the rest I think is the most obvious screenplay and is very disrespectful towards the viewer.
I have enjoyed some films this year but nothing i'm very passionate about bar the new Alien film,Longlegs and The Substance and there's a lot i've still to see inc Wicked,Nightbitch,Anora,The Brutalist,The Room Next Door,A Real Pain,Queer,A Complete Unkown,The Last Showgirl and more.
A Top 10 would look like this in no order
Civil War
The Substance
Thelma
Juror No 2
Sing Sing
The Apprentice
Emilia Perez
Conclave
Alien Romulus
Longlegs
I have enjoyed some films this year but nothing i'm very passionate about bar the new Alien film,Longlegs and The Substance and there's a lot i've still to see inc Wicked,Nightbitch,Anora,The Brutalist,The Room Next Door,A Real Pain,Queer,A Complete Unkown,The Last Showgirl and more.
A Top 10 would look like this in no order
Civil War
The Substance
Thelma
Juror No 2
Sing Sing
The Apprentice
Emilia Perez
Conclave
Alien Romulus
Longlegs