Team Experience Oscar Predictions: Pre-Globe Jitters

by Cláudio Alves

Wake up, Ani. The Team Experience sees lots of gold in your near future!Mere hours before the Golden Globes kickstart the televised part of the season and crown the first big precursor winners, let's unveil the Team Experience Oscar predictions. As in years past, various members of The Film Experience's writing team were asked to deliver their Academy Award predictions, contributing to some collective punditry. This season, you can count on my best guesses and those of Eric Blume, baby Clyde, Eurocheese, Abe Friedtanzer, Christopher James, Ben Miller, Nick Taylor, plus the one and only Nathaniel Rogers. For this first set of team predictions, we've focused on the so-called "above the line" categories, plus Animated and International Film for good measure. In other words, the races that tonight's ceremony might shake up…

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Oscar Volleys: Best Adapted Screenplay is a confusing mess!

Lynn Lee and Christopher James discuss the race for the Adapted Screenplay Oscar...

EMILIA PÉREZ, Jacques Audiard | © Netflix

LYNN: Another year, another head-scratcher over what counts as “adapted” for Oscar purposes.  To be sure, this season there doesn’t seem to be any classification controversy on the level of last year’s Barbie kerfuffle. But, as ever, there’s some pretty transparent strategic positioning – such as the decision to campaign Emilia Pérez in adapted instead of original, which was likely driven by an assessment that adapted is the less competitive of the two this year.

Does that calculation seem right to you, and will it pay off? And does this mean we might have two musicals nominated for adapted screenplay this year, if Wicked also gets in (as I think it will)? Has that ever happened before?

CHRISTOPHER: I love the ever changing definition of “adapted,” which just seems to be “can you point to any written source that kinda relates to your film.” This year is such a strange year, as all of the frontrunners would be considered odd picks in past years...

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Split Decision: "Poor Things"

No two people feel the exact same way about any film. Thus, Team Experience is pairing up to debate the merits of this year’s Oscar movies. Here's Abe Friedtanzer and Nick Taylor on Poor Things…

NICK: Hello Abe! Congratulations on Poor Things winning the Team Experience Award for Best Picture. I’m glad a film that moves, sounds, and dresses in such an offbeat manner has become such a critical and popular hit. It’s always nice to see weird art winning. That being said, I don’t count myself as a fan of Poor Things, and have a lot of complaints I could throw at its many, many, unapologetic excesses. Still, I like starting these Split Decision panels on notes of praise, and I’d really love to hear what you think of Poor Things.

ABE: Hey Nick! Always happy to chat about movies. I had the pleasure of seeing Poor Things at the New York Film Festival back in September right after May December, a film that many liked that I did not. I've been a fan of Yorgos Lanthimos' since the incredible Oscar-nominated Greek film Dogtooth, and I found both The Lobster and The Favourite extremely interesting and engaging. I was very turned off, however, by The Killing of a Sacred Deer. Lanthimos' offbeat nature and his winning blend of pitch-black comedy and drama is usually quite effective, but Poor Things is a departure even from that…

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Split Decision: “American Fiction”

No two people feels the exact same way about any film. Thus, Team Experience is pairing up to debate the merits of this year’s Oscar movies. Here’s Lynn Lee and Cláudio Alves on American Fiction...

LYNN LEE: Hi Cláudio - looking forward to a friendly fisticuffs (is there such a thing? at TFE, yes!) on American Fiction, one of my favorite movies of 2023. 

I have to admit I'm a little self-conscious about ranking it so high in a year filled with noteworthy films.  It wasn't a cultural behemoth à la Barbenheimer.  It's not the work of a known auteur or a rising one; it doesn't have the weird-cool vibe of a Poor Things or the wistful-cool cachet of a Past Lives.  Visually, it's not particularly interesting.  Thematically, it follows in the footsteps of other, similarly themed movies about Black artists confronting racial pigeonholing and stereotypes - from The 40-Year-Old Version to Bamboozled all the way back to Hollywood Shuffle - but made significantly more palatable (I won't say diluted) for mainstream audiences...

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Oscar Volley - Adapted Screenplay

For today's Oscar Volley, Lynn and Elisa discuss the Oscar race for Adapted Screenplay.

LYNN LEE: Let’s start with the elephant giant doll not in the room: Barbie is out!  Assuming, that is, the Academy agrees it’s properly competing for Original rather than Adapted Screenplay.  Personally, I think Barbie does belong in Original even if it is technically based on an existing “property.”  And whatever the calculus behind the decision to compete in that category, I’m not convinced it has an easier path to victory than if it had opted for Adapted.  Be that as it may, its absence means that in stark contrast to last year, this year’s Adapted Screenplay slate may be composed entirely of adaptations of books, glorious books!

But which ones?  Oppenheimer and Killers of the Flower Moon are the two obvious frontrunners, and I’m bullish on American Fiction getting a nod based on how enthusiastically it’s been received by early audiences.  Poor Things is probably also in, even if the film proves too outré for the more conservative segment of the Academy. The last slot is hard to predict, but it’s still most likely to be something derived from a book – whether it’s The Zone of Interest, All of Us Strangers, or Priscilla. (Though I feel like Priscilla has faded from the conversation.)  Or The Color Purple, which is adapted from the musical but still derived from the Alice Walker novel...

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