Golden Globe Predictions, Anyone?

by Nathaniel R

The Globes often zig when people say they'll zag and true shockers are peppered all throughout their history. But times have changed. Since the HFPA have been shamed and named and restructured in the past five or so years, the voting body is quite different. They're likely to play things much much safer then they once did in an attempt to be respectable and predict the Oscars. But that's the cynical view. Any rounding off of their edges won't really even be conscious. When voting bodies become large (and their voting body is much larger now) they tend to default to whatever the 'buzz' is and lose the kind of personality that you can get with smaller organizations. It's why some festival juries and regional critics groups (a few of them at least) still exhibit something in the way of personality. Anyway, let's have fun guessing the Globes which start at 8:00 pm tonight after the jump...

BEST MOTION PICTURE, DRAMA

• THE BRUTALIST, A24
• A COMPLETE UNKNOWN, Searchlight Pictures
• CONCLAVE, Focus Features
• DUNE: PART TWO, Warner Bros. Pictures
• NICKEL BOYS, Orion Pictures / Amazon MGM Studios
• SEPTEMBER 5 Paramount Pictures

My Guess: CONCLAVE has the advantage of being non-divisive and could well rise to the top as a result. 

Potential Surprise: A COMPLETE UNKNOWN could be the late breaking surprise that also capitalizes on the fact that the Globes are even more musical friendly than other awards organizations. While it's not a "musical" in the break out into song sense, it's most definitely a musical in the wall-to-wall performances sense. 

I'm Doubtful: The other films, save for THE BRUTALIST, just don't have enough buzz. 

BEST MOTION PICTURE, COMEDY/MUSICAL 

• ANORA, NEON
• CHALLENGERS, Amazon MGM Studios
• EMILIA PÉREZ, Netflix
• A REAL PAIN, Searchlight Pictures
• THE SUBSTANCE, MUBI
• WICKED, Universal Pictures 

My Guess: Eenie meenie mine mo is it EMILIA PEREZ or WICKED? Both are very high profile with very expensive promotional machines running. In the end I'm going to guess Emilia which feels more like a Globe choice but I hope it's Wicked.

I'm Doubtful: A month ago ANORA felt like the one to beat here. Would be a wonderful surprise if it resurged on tonight since it's the best of this nominated sextet.

BEST ACTOR, DRAMA 

• Adrien Brody, THE BRUTALIST
• Timothée Chalamet, A COMPLETE UNKNOWN
• Daniel Craig, QUEER
• Colman Domingo, SING SING
• Ralph Fiennes, CONCLAVE
• Sebastian Stan, THE APPRENTICE 

My Guess: CHALAMET - peaking at the right time and the Globes are not as resistant to young male movie stars in the way Oscar voters have historically been.

Potential Spoiler: FIENNES - I know people think Brody may well win his second Oscar but I'm thinking Fiennes is a bigger 'career win' threat than people have yet acknowledged. That acknowledgement / overdue realization could start right here on Globes night.

In Ye Olden Globes Time: CRAIG or STAN - in the days of the Golden Globes pulling regular shockers based on pure passion for a less high profile performance, either of these two would make a great deal of sense. Could a shocker still happen like vestiges of a past Globes era...? 

BEST ACTRESS, DRAMA

• Pamela Anderson, THE LAST SHOWGIRL
• Angelina Jolie, MARIA
• Nicole Kidman, BABYGIRL
• Tilda Swinton, THE ROOM NEXT DOOR
• Fernanda Torres, I’M STILL HERE
• Kate Winslet, LEE

My Guess: JOLIE. While it would be absolutely delicious to see KIDMAN honored for her best work in years in Babygirl, I think of the two megastars nominated, the safer bet is Jolie since it's (sigh) a traditional awards style role. But Kidman runs giant ever expanding circles around Jolie (and quite a few of the others) in the battle of "deserves to win"

In Ye Olden Times: ANDERSON would have been a real threat to take the prize. She has such a good narrative and it's a sweet performance. But Demi Moore took most of the oxygen in regards to 'comeback' narratives this season.

BEST ACTOR, COMEDY/MUSICAL 

• Jesse Eisenberg, A REAL PAIN
• Hugh Grant, HERETIC
• Gabriel LaBelle, SATURDAY NIGHT
• Jesse Plemons, KINDS OF KINDNESS
• Glen Powell, HIT MAN
• Sebastian Stan, A DIFFERENT MAN

My Guess: STAN. Since he's nominated in both lead actor categories, and really having a strong year I think he *could* prevail. That said I do not at all feel confident in this guess.

Potential Spoiler: GRANT and POWELL make very Globesian sense if they're not feeling like lifting Sebastian Stan up.  

It's exciting that this category could pretty much go anywhere.

BEST ACTRESS, COMEDY/MUSICAL

• Amy Adams, NIGHTBITCH
  
• Cynthia Erivo, WICKED
• Karla Sofía Gáscon, EMILIA PÉREZ
• Mikey Madison, ANORA
• Demi Moore, THE SUBSTANCE
• Zendaya, CHALLENGERS 

My Guess: A tough call -- totally wide open race -- but I'm going with MOORE. If it's really the wide open race that it looks like, her narrative is delicious enough to put her over the top (fitting given the over the top film!). 

Potential Spoiler: ERIVO and GASCON are both real threats to take this particular Globe, especially if their film proves the night's big winner.

Globe-Style Shocker: ZENDAYA. Imagine it. On the other hand, remember when AMY ADAMS won for Big Eyes (2014) of all things. You just never know. 

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

• Yura Borisov, ANORA
• Kieran Culkin, A REAL PAIN
• Edward Norton, A COMPLETE UNKNOWN
• Guy Pearce, THE BRUTALIST
• Jeremy Strong, THE APPRENTICE
• Denzel Washington, GLADIATOR II

My Guess: CULKIN, because he's winning everything and it always helps to be an inarguable lead when you're competing in "supporting"

Potential Spoiler: WASHINGTON if they want to give him his third competitive Globe.

What if:... Would the Oscar race change at all if NORTON or PEARCE surprised? Both are arguably underrewarded given their consistency and longevity onscreen. And it would be so nice to see genuine supporting roles honored in supporting categories. 

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

• Selena Gomez, EMILIA PÉREZ
• Ariana Grande, WICKED
• Felicity Jones, THE BRUTALIST
• Margaret Qualley, THE SUBSTANCE
• Isabela Rossellini, CONCLAVE
• Zoë Saldaña, EMILIA PÉREZ

My Guess: GRANDE

Potential Spoiler: SALDANA

What if:... They just throw caution to the wind and make it a Substance double with QUALLEY joining MOORE in the winners circle?

BEST DIRECTOR

• Jacques Audiard, EMILIA PÉREZ
• Sean Baker, ANORA
• Edward Berger, CONCLAVE
• Brady Corbet, THE BRUTALIST
• Coralie Fargeat, THE SUBSTANCE
• Payal Kapadia, ALL WE IMAGINE AS LIGHT

My Guess: AUDIARD, because I think Emilia Perez is very Globes!

Potential Spoiler: BAKER, because it would be sweet and stranger things have happened.

If anyone else wins:... it probably means their film is better loved than we thought going into Oscar nominations. 

BEST ANIMATED FEATURE

• FLOW
• INSIDE OUT 2
• MEMOIR OF A SNAIL
• MOANA 2
• WALLACE & GROMIT: VENGEANCE MOST FOWL
• THE WILD  ROBOT

My Guess: THE WILD ROBOT which is a slam dunk for the Oscar whether or not it wins here.

Potential Spoiler: INSIDE OUT 2 because Pixar has such a huge advantage in these prizes

But I'm rooting for: FLOW which is easily the best of the animated options.

CINEMATIC AND BOX OFFICE ACHIEVEMENT

• ALIEN: ROMULUS
• BEETLEJUICE BEETLEJUICE
• DEADPOOL & WOLVERINE
• GLADIATOR II
• INSIDE OUT 2
• TWISTERS
• WICKED
• THE WILD ROBOT

My Guess: WICKED since I'm predicting Emilia Perez to win Best Motion Picture, Musical or Comedy

This is such a dumb idea for a category. To quote angry Don Draper "That's what the money is for!!!" 

BEST MOTION PICTURE, NON-ENGLISH LANGUAGE

• ALL WE IMAGINE AS LIGHT
• EMILIA PÉREZ
• I'M STILL HERE
• THE GIRL WITH THE NEEDLE
• THE SEED OF THE SACRED FIG
• VERMIGLIO

My Guess: ALL WE IMAGINE AS LIGHT - since it's also nominated in Best Director 

Potential Spoiler: Though it would be such a waste to give this AND Best Motion Picture, Musical to EMILIA PEREZ, they could well double up. 

If anyone else wins: It'll be a great boon to their dreams to land among the nominees at the Oscars.

BEST SCREENPLAY

• ANORA
• THE BRUTALIST
• CONCLAVE
• EMILIA PEREZ
• A REAL PAIN
• THE SUBSTANCE

My Guess: CONCLAVE

Potential Spoiler: ANORA or EMILIA PEREZ

BEST ORIGINAL SCORE

• THE BRUTALIST
• CHALLENGERS
• CONCLAVE
• DUNE PART TWO
• EMILIA PEREZ
• THE WILD ROBOT

My Guess: EMILIA PEREZ because I'm fearing it's going to be a huge night for them though this is really a year that calls for a spread of the wealth. 

Potential Spoiler: CHALLENGERS because people are obsessed with that score for some reason. (It seems very soundtrack heavy to me to be up for score prizes) 

BEST ORIGINAL SONG

• BETTER MAN "Forbidden Road"
• CHALLENGERS "Compress/Repress"
• EMILIA PEREZ "El Mal"
• EMILIA PEREZ "Mi Camino"
• THE LAST SHOWGIRL "Beautiful That Way"
• THE WILD ROBOT "Kiss the Sky"

My Guess: "Beautiful That Way" from THE LAST SHOWGIRL with Emilia Perez splitting its own vote and to stick it to Oscar's perpetually deaf music branch who ignores great movie songs all the time in order to give Diane Warren her annual nomination. 

Potential Spoiler: Any of them. The Globes are historically hard to predict in this category but they do love a pop star win so Miley Cyrus seems to fit the bill best. 

Not going to guess the TV prizes but just enjoy the show tonight.

See you on the other side!

Comments

[Lucky]

Wow Nathaniel I think my predictions are almost completely different than yours, which just speaks of how open this feels for a change.

For me it's:
-Brutalist
-Anora
-Corvet
-Kidman
-Brody
-Moore
-Grant
-Culkin
-Saldaña
-Anora for Screenplay
-Emilia Perez for International and song
-Challengers for Score
and Wicked for whatever that new category is.

[jules]

Nathaniel, nice job predicting Moore and Stan. Most people missed those.

I wonder if the posters who've been claiming Moore has no chance at an Oscar nod are convinced yet!

Also, do you think Torres or Stan have a chance at a nom now? I'm curious about how you think last night impacted the nominations.

[Sr. Dan]

Ufff....not even half of them right XD I love when the race is all over the place like this, so much fun. Can't wait to see what CC does next, hopefully Anora will recover some ground.