An Early Look at the Best Director Oscar Race
Thursday, November 14, 2024 at 9:30PM by Eric Blume
Will THE BRUTALIST's "big bold vision" secure Brady Corbet his first Oscar nomination?
While The Film Experience writers gear up for their own Oscar predictions, I (probably like you) spend my time on several other industry sites to see what the current predictions are.
This is a super fun time of the year, because nobody is out with citations or nominations, so it's not yet thuddeningly predictable. Which makes it all the more surprising is that everywhere I read, almost ALL the forecasters seem to have the same five names listed as our nominees for the Best Director Oscar:
- Brady Corbet, The Brutalist
- Sean Baker, Anora
- Jacques Audiard, Emilia Pérez
- Ridley Scott, Gladiator 2
- Edward Berger, Conclave
I can barely find a site predicting anyone else. On the fringes sit Mohammad Rasoulof, Coralie Fargeat, RaMell Ross, Pedro Almodóvar, and maybe Robert Eggers.
Things will probably change over the next month or two, but it's very strange to see this category fall into agreement so early.
Corbet seems to have the "big bold vision" energy behind him. Baker has his fans for his smart spin on genre and commanding unknown actors to ace performances. Audiard has the "nobody else would have made a movie that looks and feels like this" vote. Scott is the veteran they've never awarded. Berger is the up-and-comer, oh-sorry-we-skipped-you-for-All-Quiet guy.
These are four extraordinarily talented men, and they would make a pretty strong quintet all-in-all.
How are you feeling about this race? Who are the underdogs you're rooting for?
Reader Comments (14)
Maybe I'm letting my disappointment with GLADIATOR 2 cloud my mind, but I don't think Ridley Scott is anywhere close to that Best Director nomination. Indeed, this quintet feels a tad safe and predictable for what that branch has been doing lately. But again, I might be projecting my own critical opinion on the race.
I wonder if Warner Bros. will do anything to revive the DUNE flames. I assume it will get a lot of guild love, so that might do and bring Villeneuve back into the conversation. Also, a couple of pieces on big outlets reminding voters that he was snubbed for the first one could help.
Is that some shade in your last paragraph? I love it!
Within this consensus, it's pretty nuts that Baker, Audiard and Corbet are there. I love them, but I never thought they'd be in the Oscar convo. It'll be an arty Oscars.
I don't see it for Scott given the generally muted audience reception to Gladiator II. Especially not over Villeneuve, if someone is to get in for a sequel. I know he got snubbed for Part One, but this is a more open year.
Currently, I'd guess Baker is taking it for Anora. My predictions below:
1. Baker - Anora
2. Corbet - The Brutalist
3. Audiard - Emilia Perez
4. Villeneuve - Dune: Part Two
5. Ross - Nickel Boys
6. Berger - Conclave
7. Fargeat - The Substance
8. Almodovar - The Room Next Door
9. Mangold - A Complete Unknown
10. Rasolouf - The Seed of the Sacred Fig
In my head at this early stage, Pedro Almodovar gets the nomination instead of Scott. Then the Academy voters mistakenly rationalise that directing in a language other than his first is a major achievement, and therefore give him the Oscar. (For the record, I think he deserves it, as what he has done with TRND is magnificent, but just not for directing in English.)
Today, I think The Nominees fir Best Director are...
Sean Baker, Anora
Brady Corbet, The Brutalist
Edward Berger, Conclave
Jacques Audiard, Emilia Pérez
Pedro Almodóvar, The Room Next Door
For me, Coralie Fargeat is the front-runner. She's right now the new queen of body-horror. Anyone who is the front-runner for Best Actress should step aside. It belongs to Demi Moore.
Claudio RE Gladiator my friend said it was enjoyable but unnecessary and Denzel sticks out like a sore thumb,is this your take on the film.
My Predictions Berger,Baker,Fargeat,Almodovar with Corbett taking it
Mr Ripley79 -- I may review it yet, so I shouldn't write too much. But basically, I found it a redundant sequel, too stuck on copying the first movie to the point it sometimes feels like a remake. It also looks much less exciting than the original, with John Mathieson's digital photography a severe downgrade from his Oscar-nominated work for the 2000 Best Picture winner. Also, Ridley Scott managed to direct the first outright bad Paul Mescal performance - IMO, of course, and I assume many will disagree - which is a huge problem for the emotional beats of the thing, especially as one reaches the climax that should feel epic but strikes me as unpersuasive and small.
I liked Denzel a whole lot. Yes, he stands out, but mostly because he is the most original element this sequel has going for it. There's no equivalent to what he's doing in the first GLADIATOR, and he seems to realize the best course of action is to give a movie star performance and have fun rather than plod through the po-faced self-seriousness most of the main cast has picked as their register.
I agree with these takes on Ridley Scott. Remember, he wasn't even nominated for The Martian, which was well-received, so I'm not sure he's going to be nominated for this. I haven't seen Gladiator II yet, but I rewatched Gladiator this week, and it's one of the worst BP winners of the century IMO - overlong and bloated.
I hope Villeneuve gets in. Dune Part 2 was a major achievement. But the fifth nominee may be someone more in line with the branch's tastes, like Almodóvar.
I'm so curious to see what happens when the televised awards begin. So many of these current "frontrunners" seem destined to crater.
Anora will be big, but feels to me like it may score better with the critics? Or is it just a light enough year that nothing touches it?
Netfix films always dim after their Netflix release and have trouble maintaining their momentum. Combined with the poor audience reception, I can't see Emilia Perez staying that strong. Then again, I'm blinded by how dreadful I think it is, so who knows?
Can't see Gladiator 2 hanging on through Oscar season unless it's an undeniable gigantic hit. Feels like Moana and Wicked are stealing its thunder.
Kinda feeling:
Corbet, Baker, Berger, Villeneuve, Ross
This agreed on list seems pretty typical of past slates. Whenever I see a director list where I feel faintly bored and unmoved, I think, yes that’s probably an accurate prediction.
This early in the game, you’d hope there would be 15 directors in alternating combinations of slates. But this seems to be a process of closing the gates early. I have no idea how it works.
If I was proposing just one of many alternate slates, I might choose:
Agnieska Holland, The Green Border
Ridley Scott, Gladiator II
Marielle Heller, Nightbitch
Denis Villeneuve, Dune 2
Mike Leigh, Hard Truths
Anyone feel the John M Chu is a stealth nominee in waiting.
Mr Ripley79 -- I just checked on Gold Derby - the Experts section where they aggregate the predictions of writers from various outlets - and some people are predicting Chu. Folks from Collider, Variety and Fandango. I guess we're bound to see more of that as the buzz for WICKED reaches its peak.
I'm more surprised by people predicting Mike Leigh, honestly. Some of the other folks mentioned seem like possible passion picks but, as much as I love HARD TRUTHS, I struggle to see it scoring anything more than Actress and Screenplay. Maybe it'll become a critics awards favorite - that would be nice.
Lots of those experts are predicting Villeneuve over Scott, it seems, and I can see arguments for other dark horse contenders. Ellwood (The Playlist) and Neglia (Next Best Picture) predicting Mohammad Rasoulof made me curious and I think they might be on to something.
I'm rooting for Rasoulof, and I think he'll earn a lot of support in the directors branch. Hoping its enough for him to break into the five.