Actress Chart Updates: Kate Winslet is Buzzing
Saturday, July 29, 2017 at 1:30PM Wonder Wheel continues to gather quite a lot of pre-release hype. It's opening quite late for a Woody Allen picture on December 1st. If you look at the history of his releases they've been summer counter-programming for a very long time now. Midnight in Paris (2011) and Blue Jasmine (2013) have been his biggest Oscar and commercial successes since the 1990s and they both opened in the summer. You have to go all the way back to Match Point (2005) to find a successful December release for the annual Woody Allens and that one came up short of expectations on Oscar nomination morning (1 nomination) despite a lot of pre-release critical buzz.
But Amazon Studios, who plan to distribute Wonder Wheel themselves (a first for them), seem to have an eye on Oscar. Perhaps they've bought into the common (and very wrong) belief that you have to be a December release to catch Oscar's eye? Good luck to them and we hope the movie is as good as we're hearing!
Consider this high praise from Kent Jones who selected the movie to close the New York Film Festival in October:
I’m not quite sure what I expected when I sat down to watch Wonder Wheel, but when the lights came up I was speechless. There are elements in the film that will certainly be familiar to anyone who knows Woody Allen’s work, but here he holds them up to a completely new light. I mean that literally and figuratively, because Allen and Vittorio Storaro use light and color in a way that is stunning in and of itself but also integral to the mounting emotional power of the film. And at the center of it all is Kate Winslet’s absolutely remarkable performance—precious few actors are that talented, or fearless.
Now, it's important to note that Kent Jones is the Festival Director and thus has an obligation to promote his festival but still... wouldn't it be wondrous to see Kate rise again after the delicious hint of her full throttle starpower returning via The Dressmaker last year?
UPDATED OSCAR CHARTS
Best Actress - Kate, Emma, and Meryl on the rise
Best Supporting Actress - Holly Hunter securely up top... for now
Foreign Film Chart 1 - Afghanistan to Ethiopia speculation
Reader Comments (105)
Streep & politics is not a good Oscar formula. The Manchurian Candidate, Lions for Lambs, The Sefuction of Joe Tynan, Rendition...
I've literally never even heard of this Emma Thompson movie thats above Meryl Streep
Look there's what you want to happen and what you think is gonna have. For me this isn't "If I had an Oscar ballot", this is Oscar PREDICTIONS. Predicting Meryl Streep in a role like this, with that director, with that cast, in this context in the times we live in, its not boring. It's correct.
Labeling people as Streep haters is hilarious.
I love Meryl Streep. I've seen EVERYTHING SHE'S DONE. I think she needs to equal Hepburn's record and surpass it, but not with Default performances and nominations.
If we do have a Best Actress lineup of:
Winslet (winner)
Streep (winner)
Dench (winner)
Lawrence (winner)
some other person who hasn't won
= that'd be HORRENDOUS!
These predictions are fascinating. I love the halfway charts. I've never seen such a rich collection of possibilities before. It must be one of the best years ever. I had no idea that Winslet was getting so much buzz. This topsy turvy early season is so much fun. As for The Reader naysayers, if you read the novel it was based on, you'll get a whole new insight into the way Winslet pegged the pathos of the character. The cold veneer was the woman's way of dealing with her trauma and guilt. The ironies in the story are breathtaking.
Surprised you don't have Cate somewhere in the Best Supporting actress charts for Thor. I know it's a stretch, but ya'know, she's Cate Blanchett lol
What is your reason for believing that Pfeiffer is going to get nominated for mother! but Lawrence's chances are less than Gal Gadot's? Oh, please!
Well, Yavor, there are some people who repeatedly try to defame Meryl Streep just because she is more successful than their favorite actresses. The tenacity with which they do it makes them earn the "Meryl haters" title.
Furthermore, I do not believe that a Best Actress category full of Oscar winners would be horrendous. I would love it if Annette or Glenn Close won, always considering that the performance is actually worth it.
And I completely agree with Jeremy : " Predicting Meryl Streep in a role like this, with that director, with that cast, in this context in the times we live in, its not boring. It's correct."
Nathaniel- so is the list more a your own personal "wish list" than an actual prediction list? I think this is where I get confused because you use industry buzz and word of mouth to put Winslet at the top of the list and then place others above Streep whose buzz is non- existent at the moment.
I also love the fact that for years on this site everyone complains that Streep works with hack directors and uninspired material and now here she is in The Papers with Spielberg and Hanks with timely subject matter custom built for Oscar and now everyone has issues. Streep can't win with you guys. Let's just face it- she will not be in the top 5 on this site until nominations are announced.
@Ez, agreed
if "Thor:Ragnarok" receives Civil War / Winter Soldier-esque critical acclaim I absolutely see a scenario where Blanchett reigns with nomination number 8.
The hype is tremendous and it's a November release. The odds are absolutely in the movie's favor.
The new trailer looks fantastic, btw.
"I also love the fact that for years on this site everyone complains that Streep works with hack directors and uninspired material and now here she is in The Papers with Spielberg and Hanks with timely subject matter custom built for Oscar and now everyone has issues. Streep can't win with you guys. Let's just face it- she will not be in the top 5 on this site until nominations are announced."
Jamie is saying some harsh truths here.
Ad & Jamie -- What Cal said about Streep and political films. The only time it has worked out for her Oscar-wise is Iron Lady. Otherwise those are the films that get ignored. He listed the examples so that i didn't have to.
as for "wish list" vs predictions and calculating buzz... it's all for fun mixed with hunches. If i only went with current buzz and not modulating it with my own hunches (like that Emma Thompson will be great in a huge role based on a critically acclaimed book in a movie directed by a man who has not directed that many movies but got 4 actresses nominated already) what use would i be? Every prediction chart would just then list whichever actresses are usually nominated (which would be hella boring and also NOT accurate because the final list never turns out exactly like the buzz before anybody sees any of the movie).
Just because Emma has no buzz does not mean she won't become a big deal.
In short Meryl will always have huge buzz from the time she signs on to a project. It's senseless to assume this always puts her at #1 at any given time of year (I maintain my belief that were it not for that speech at the Globes last season she would have just missed the list as she just missed for Hours in 2002)
Nathaniel- one could argue that Streep is nominated for political films when she portrays a real person. Also- a Spielberg directed politically charged film (during this political climate of the president vs. the press) sort of "trumps" the examples Cal mentions.
I never insist that she has has to have the #1 slot but to suggest that she does not have enough buzz to warrant 5th seems weird. In fact, she was not even on the April prediction list for fear that the movie would actually not happen this year even though production/filming had been announced.
We will have to agree to disagree. I do believe a Florence nomination was going to happen just based on her earning The Globe, Sag, and a BAFTA nom. Some of those achievements are based on her performance and not just on her GG speech. I also thought the Hours campaign was more to do with category confusion and then not wanting her to spout supporting with Julianne. ( and she already had he nomination for Adaptation)
My negative rep here comes from my Streep bashing. However, I accept her position and status aren't going down with age or weak choices. She's the one American actress considered brilliant whether or not she was for a particular role. My favorite work from her are supporting parts where she becomes an actual character actress. This happens primarily when the weight of a movie isn't on her shoulders she does her most interesting work.
I have no desire to bash or drag her these days. I was annoyed I could never get into prime time Streep. She was a dull actress who did plenty on camera without moving me. Of course I want the veteran goodwill she gets to shine on other actresses in her peer group. But I'm not Hollywood nor a causal voting consensus for industry prizes.
Nathaniel R is correct in wanting to cultivate an alternative precursor environment where instead of being right his site helps campaigners push arguments they might not have for their contender. Award fans who know the status of the potential pool of nominees can be a compelling thing. This is fun right now. I see Streep making it in because the rarely pass her up these days. Would be nice if she just barely missed the final five but Hollywood will want to stick it to 45.
Guys this far in advance, it is OK to not predict the sure things only. Mixing it up is good as we KNOW there will be some surprises.
Now if papers was released and Streep was getting best in career reviews, then bias would be keeping her from the top tier. As of now, we know nothing. Some people default to the most respected thesbians in prestige films; others do a mix of that and gut feeling and wishes (based on someone super talented that is underestimated). Both are reasonable ways this far in advance.
It's funny when only this past February after the Oscar which she was nominated for her 20th everyone assumed Meryl Streep would go away for a couple years. But then BOOM..they announced the Speilberg Project in March. Now we have to discuss whether or not Streep should or shouldn't get nominated for her current role all over again. So it comes down to if you like her you will be happy because the prospects of The Papers to do well come awards season this coming winter is off the charts, but if you don't like her..oh well.
Personally, I want Glenn Close, Annette Bening, Sally Hawkins, even Michelle Pfeiffer (in Supporting) to pull a surprise. But first they need distributors backing their performances early. I mean Fox is obviously campaigning very early for Streep and we wonder why the hell is she a contender again?
On Bening: what happened to that The Seagull adaptation? Killer role.
Thesbians. Cherry Jones, Eva Le Gallienne, Jodie Foster, etc.
I see far more bias here that Bening, Close or Pfeiffer should win, regardless of the film or it's actually chances. People like hurtful are obsessed with Meryl Streep and talk about her way too much. If The Papers delivers and her performance is praised, then it's a fairly safe prediction that she will be nominated given her stature, Spielberg, and the Academy love for both.
People bring up Rendition, Lion for Lambs (which I personally think is quite underrated) but they missed the fact that a) none of These movies were directed by Steven Spielberg and b) this is not 2007 anymore. A lot has happened.
(TIL wasn't really about politics either)
I can get the Streep fatigue, but that people really want her to miss for a film like The Papers is... I don't know... quite sad.
If she actually misses, People should NEVER EVER AGAIN complain about her not working with great directors if that doesn't lead to anything then.
Then again I understand no one knows about the quality of The Papers, but I truely believe if there's someone who can handle political movies quite well it's Steven Spielberg.
And I still think the political situation right now all over the world (not just the current US poltics), is going to be a huge factor come release time in December.
Then why NATHANIEL R, not put Jennifer Larence higher ? The director has led to many Oscar nominated and winning performances in the past.
It's just a wish list.
Weren't we all giving Streep's very political Globes speech credit for her nomination as soon as she gave it? A timely film about reporters with a liberal cast and crew that's more than ready to campaign for it in this political climate seems kinda tailor made for heat, especially for her. And aren't a lot of the films Cal mentioned considered bad? I get she got noticed for Manchurian and Iron Lady was as much about narrative and her actually campaigning as much as people liking it but that win still feels kinda infamous (maybe Viola winning will soften opinions?). Who knows how things'll shake out the next few months, and it's always great to hope for less familiar faces who don't even have one Oscar, but I kinda can't see it not happening.
This is hilarious! I never realized Meryl Streep fans are so wild and unhinged. Nathaniel simply suggests that he's not entirely sure she'll get nominated this year and you guys get this offended. Yikes.
Dg -- if it was just a wish list the ranking would be much different.
I am not wild and unhinged. I have not name called anyone. Is not the purpose of the site to discuss and share insights/ opinions? Nathaniel may think I am wrong and I may think he is wrong. That is all.
Bening, Thompson and McDormand all seem like wishful thinking. This is the Oscars, not the Indie Spirit Awards.
From a friend that saw The Square: Elisabeth Moss has a KILLER performance. No more tgan 15 minutes, but it would be a no brainer in supporting.
I hope Winslet bellyflops with this. Terrible, awards obsessed actress. Her career was on a perfect downward spiral that I hope continues.
Howdy Rick, no time no toll.
Kate Winslet alongside Blanchett are inevitable double digit Oscar nominees for their acting. Get over it. Streep made it to the twenties but she'll have those two rivaling her surpassing both Nicholson and Hepburn.
Seems Winslet is the next Streep.
I was rooting for Saoirse Ronan, but for On Chesil Beach. It seems the kind of movie where she can convey the subtlety which delighted us in Brooklyn. And now she's got this other role and I wonder if Chesil will even be released in time to qualify. Does anybody know?
And, Nat, you placed her LAST on the list!
Team Annette because she's great and sharing is caring.
P.s. #OscarsSoWhite
Does it make me a bad person if I'm annoyed at the whole Gal Gadot might get a nomination? I mean I haven't watched any of others but I hope that's not one of the top 5 best performances of the year (I know it's not just about the performance but come on).
I doubt Brie would get in for Glass Castle, the best bits of the book are during the childhood and even if it seems they beefed up her role from the trailer I don't think it will be enough. Maybe Naomi Watts can get in for supporting.
I would die of happiness if Mary J Blige finally got her Oscar nod and it wasn't for a song.
/3rtful
You do realize that for Kate and Cate to even reach Hepburn and Nicholson they need to get 5 more nominations. If you consider the 7-year gap between The Reader (2008) and Steve Jobs (15) + the 6-year gap between Elizabeth (2007) and Blue Jasmine (2013), which both happened around the age of 40 for the two of actresses and could happen again, since roles for women are scarcer as they age, they might not turn to be as strong a competition to Meryl as you might think. And Meryl is not staying at 20 nominations - she is still getting nominated and she'll probably reach 25 or more.
I don't hate Meryl but I still maintain she takes little risk and has been boring on screen for the last many years. No hate. Just an opinion and dare I say factual to an extent.
Dg -- agree with everything you just said well except for the Meryl at 25 part. I mean, she *might* get there -- I suppose there's a good chance but not for a long time i don't think. Eventually things will have to slow down.
1970s - 2 nominations (1 win)
1980s - 7 nominations (1 win)
1990s - 4 nominations
2000s - 4 nominations
2010s - 4 nominations (1 win)
I would personally be surprised if she ties her 1980s this decade in terms of Oscar record (she'd need three more with only three years left to get them... and the most consecutive nominations she's ever received is three in a row (1981-1983) and she'll be 70 before the decade is over! Very few women have ever received Oscar nominations over the age of 70 let alone multiple nominations. The only women who have ever managed multiple nominations over the age of 70 are Jessica Tandy (2), Edith Evans (2), and Judi Dench (3). If anyone can break Judi Dench's record i guess it'd be Streep though.
I'm guessing Meryl makes it to 24 nominations (doubling the nomination of her nearest rival Jack Nicholson) with 1 more win in her Eighty-somethign years. because it's fun to guess things like this.
Nat R -- Meryl only scored 6 noms for films released in the 80s since you already counted her first 2 in the 70s. Otherwise, it would have been for actual years of noms; 1 in the 70s, 7 in the 80s, 3 in the 90s, 4 in the 2000s, and 5 in 2010s
People are already losing it and it's not even August yet!
If we're going to be looking at Denzel Washington in "Roman Israel, Esq." then we can consider his co-star, Carmen Ejogo, in the Best Supporting Actress category.
Ejogo has done some recent well-received turns in "Selma", Born to be Blue", "Fantastic Beasts". The supporting actress in the director's last film "Nightcrawler", Rene Russo, had a good part. Maybe this part will be interesting as well.
I've liked Carmen Ejogo ever since I saw her singing and dancing with Kenneth Branagh in "Love's Labours Lost".
Of the actual movies, I am most excited to see Frances McDormand in "Three Billboards..." she looks to be doing a caustic, harsh character and I am in for it 100%. She is one of the greats, and hasn't had a great big screen role since 2008 with "Burn After Reading" - I miss her.
I know most Hollywood actresses fail to receive Oscar nominations past 70, but we are talking about Meryl here - the woman who continuously breaks record after record and is the only older Hollywood actress the industry seems to care about. Whenever there is a juicy part in her age range, she will ALWAYS get first dibs. I don't think she'll have a problem reaching 25 nominations.
Kate/Cate/Nicole/Julianne have a stranglehold on roles within the 40-50 something age range. They'll be back too.
Anyone know if Manifesto (with Cate Blanchett) is eligible for Oscar?
Sonia Braga said this year in an interview promoting Aquarius that it is very difficult to be nominated for an Oscar in a year where Meryl Streep makes a movie because there are only four places left.
When Meryl Streep makes a movie there are only 4 slots left so it's tough to find room. This is what I've learned since August: Osage County. When it seems that Meryl will not be nominated and boom she is nominated.
Harmodio
Meryl Streep absolutely deserved the August Osage County nomination. The performance was breathtaking and heartbreaking, at least top 3 in that category.
And that "When Meryl Streep makes a movie there are only 4 slots left" is boring already. She does get very frequently nominated but that's because she gets meaty parts which she freaking nails every time. If they actually wanted to nominate her every year, she would be nominated for "Hope Springs" , "Ricki and the flash" and so on.
Dg
I dare say that his performance in Ricki and the flash is one of her best works in the last decade and much better than all her Oscar nominations in the last 10 years (and if I'm not fanatic about her performance in August Osage County) It's crazy to think she was not nominated for a Golden Globe for Ricki and the flash.
The reason I think she was not nominated for Ricki and the flash or Hope Springs was because there was no campaign (although she was Golden Globe nominee for Hope Springs)
It is crazy to think that In the Fade (who won Best Actress in Cannes for Diane Kruger) still has no distributor in the United States.
Harmodio. Not surprising considering the reviews of the film.
Jesus, you guys. Settle down! It's almost as if y'all have selective amnesia. Everyone seems to think he has biases that are factoring in with the predictions (which would imply you read the site a lot), but Nathaniel's predictions are always fun at this time of the year. He's reading tealeaves. As he said earlier up, if it was going strictly by buzz it'd be the same names as always and, I guess, Gal Gadot.
And all these people trying to just make Nathaniel admit it's a wishlist to explain why their wishlist names aren't on there... I admit, I laughed.
Meryl might very well be nominated. She may deserve it or she may not. Spielberg is notorious for not getting women nominated. Before Sally Field? You have to go back to The Color Purple! But despite the joke that she gets nominated for everything... she doesn't. She not going to get nominated for everything she does until she dies. And, plz, she's at #6. She's hardly hanging out on the list with names who'll be also rans at the Indie Spirits.
for sure lock :
1. kate winslet
2. frances mcdorman
most promising :
1. daniela vega
2.Carey Mulligan
3. judy dench
4.add soon
Excited about the prospect of the youngsters since this season seems to be all about the veterans.
Rooney Mara might land in the sweet spot as the only non-winner in the all winners lineup. She's a very interesting performer and destine to win one soon.
Love to see Lawrence challenged by the craziness Aronofsky throws at her. High hope for her, Pfeiffer and the project itself.
Curious about Ronan's two (?) bids. Loved her in Brooklyn.
Campaign for Gadot should go Deadpooled.