Thursday
Jan252018
Lady Bird Eye Candy
Thursday, January 25, 2018 at 2:34PM 
Jason from MNPP here to goose our mid-afternoons real quick with that there brand new Entertainment Weekly cover image of Lady Bird's superstar trifecta of Oscar nominees Laurie Metcalf, Saoirse Ronan, and the Creator herself, Greta Gerwig. Love the silver, love the talent, love love love. What do you guys think - can Lady Bird win Best Picture? Better question - can Lady Bird win anything?
(I mean besides Team Experience's Awards, because we have sense.)
Reader Comments (34)
In reality, Lady Bird should win every category it's nominated in, but Three Billboards, Guillermo del Toro, Frances McDormand, and Allison Janney will knock them out.
I don't think LADY BIRD is entirely out of it.
The preferential ballot is helpful in Picture, given some of the the divisiveness of SHAPE and THREE BILLBOARDS, and Gerwig has a prayer in Original Screenplay. If Manville takes BAFTA, that could put the breaks on Janney's momentum a tad and maybe give Metcalf a little more of an opening. That, and the Oscars love to utilize Supporting Actress as a place to provide consolation prizes to films doomed elsewhere.
Plus: Metcalf is in a Best Picture nominee, Janney is not. It will be a race.
I still think Metcalf has a shot but I just have a hard time thinking of Lady Bird as anything but third place in all its categories. I want it to win but I can't actually think of what it has a really clear path to pick something up.
In protest of what will likely be a list of predictable and disappointing winners for me, for my Oscar pool I'm going to choose who I would personally vote: Call Me By Your Name, Nolan, Chalamet, Ronan, Dafoe, Metcalf, Ivory, and Gerwig.
I’m happy for the film’s critical, commercial, and awards success but I’m honestly not a big fan of the movie. The storyline with the mother was good and maybe the film would’ve been better if it was more a two handler like Terms of Endearment.
The high school subplots it what brings it down. Too trite for me to ever find it engaging (i.e. faking to impress the popular crowd that you consequently ignore your bff) then when that horrible song reappears I thought to myself “oh c’mon” and of course the film goes exactly where I knew it would down the dialogue. I kept waiting for a new twist or at least a clever reinvention to emerge. Why not the cool kids admit they embarrassingly like the song too and Lady Bird realizes then she can be herself and still make new friends. She invites her old friend and all of them together at prom could’ve been a fun surprise. The final minutes in New York were nice as it found a “groove” that reminded me of Frances Ha but still by the end, I was nonchalant and disappointed. Not bad but confused by the ecstatic praise.
Even Frances McDormand seemed to be campaigning for Ronan to win in her SAG speech ('the young ones need door stops too'), so I think she has a shot at best actress.
Best Supporting Actress is only unpredictable when the precursors make it unpredictable. 2017 is not such a year.
In 2007 BAFTA picked Tilda, HFPA picked Blanchett, BFCA picked Amy Ryan and SAG picked Ruby Dee. Tilda won but she was hardly a late entry to the race—she’d made shortlists all season long.
Similar situation in 2000: BAFTA picked Walters, SAG picked Dench, HFPA picked Hudson and BFCA picked McDormand. Marcia Gay Harden won as a late entry but unlike 2017, that race had no clear consensus, as we have with Janney.
Blanchett won for the Aviator with the SAG and BAFTA—both voting bodies that overlap some with Oscar. It’s already too late for Manville to amass the momentum Blanchett had in 2004.
On the surface Best Supporting Actress looks unstable but I assure you it’s not—especially when three televised precursors have rallied behind the same frontrunner. Also, it's telling that BAFTA didn't pass on I, Tonya altogether—for an American camping it up in a trashy American story, Janney's nomination is practically a win.
I could see 0 wins and I could see 4 - it's a competitive year. Also, Raul has excellent taste.
I'm a bit confused by EW's headline. What "Academy Award history" can Lady Bird make?
Janney looks hard to beat but hey, who knows. I think of Metcalf as a more possible spoiler than say Huppert was last year. I think it's McDormand actually who looks pretty unstoppable since her film is so huge, shes loved by the industry and is the face of female empowerment.
It's in Picture and writing where I still think the film holds a reasonably good shot. Particularly in the main category with the preferential ballot.
OT: Vanity Fair just released a snapshot of its annual Hollywood issue. None of the Lady Bird ladies made the cover (zzz), which was BLL-heavy and kind of weirdly so yesterday in much of its lionized lineup: Harrison Ford, Oprah Winfrey, Robert De Niro, Tom Hanks? (Even Jessica Chastain, Michael B. Jordan and Michael Shannon seem five years ago considering their breakouts—and the fact that never-included veterans such as Allison Janney or exciting newbies like Daniel Kaluuya, Hong Chau and Timothée Chalamet were right there for the taking.
Anyway, love EW's cover!
I think it's definitely a contender for Supporting Actress and Original Screenplay. But watch out in Supporting Actress, I'm predicting Lesley Manville will sneak in (a la Marcia Gay Harden). I'm also predicting her for the BAFTA (less of a risky prediction), which will only increase her profile.
I feel McDormand and McDonagh are (almost) a done deal right now. I, Tonya underperformed so maybe Laurie can still win or maybe Manville tomeis herself and ends up suprising everyone.
I can't believe people are bemoaning a near sure thing for Janney. Swinton is one and done. Likely the same with Janney. Give her her flowers now.
I have a feeling that this year the Oscar will go to a female centric movie it doesn't matter the quality of the picture
Edward L. - I believe they mean that it would be the first Best Picture winner written and directed by a woman. The Hurt Locker was written by Mark Boal.
Lady Bird is my favorite film in years, and I would vote for it all five categories. I would love for it to win just one of its Oscars, but I am so pessimistic about its chances. Here's hoping.
"I have a feeling that this year the Oscar will go to a female centric movie it doesn't matter the quality of the picture"
Well, every other year it goes to a male-centric movie and it doesn't matter the quality of the picture, so it's about time we got our turn.
Suzanne: Thanks - that makes sense.
The way Laurie Metcalf can win is if voters feel the way I do, i.e. why do we need to honor TWO profane, angry women in the same year? Personally, I'd like to knock out both Frances McDormand AND Allison Janney, but that's just me.
If enough people reflect on MeToo and women's empowerment and realize it doesn't have to be flat out nastiness, maybe Metcalf and even Ronan have a chance.
Just a thought, don't hate me.
My arguments for Metcalf? Many in the HFPA and BFCA are pretty basic. SAG-AFTRA? Voting is open to all members, so a pool of 100,000 voters can lead to pedestrian choices. The Academy membership is more "select," so I'm thinking they'll be more thoughtful and considerate in their voting.
But read any of the anonymous Oscar voter columns and you'll see that some of the members are infuriatingly narrowminded, so I guess we'll be stuck with the same winners we've been seeing so far.
At this juncture, Lady Bird's biggest hope is on its screenplay (so is Get Out). This is the cat tt those "narrow minded" voters mentioned above wld've cast their votes so tt LB won't go home empty handed.
Currently, all the four acting cat seems locked, but I'm beginning to sense a vulnerability in Janney's bid... I Tonya din break into best pic or hair/make-up, so it wasn't as well loved as LB or even Phantom Thread. n if Bafta goes w Manville, which I tink is highly likely, then Metcafe may hav a good chance if Janney's stride is broken.
Every year we always say "well, I still think so and so has a shot" and judge every single hypothetical scenario, even though they haven't won one single precursor. I prefer Laurie Metcalf, but Allison Janney has got this. She has literally worked with everyone in the film and television industry, and she appears very well loved by everyone - plus there's a hint of "it's time" in honoring her. I can't be angry about that - she's one of our best character actors and livens up every movie. She also just seems like a genuinely lovely person. Go get it, Allison!
I'm sad because I knew this never had a chance at actually winning Best Picture, no matter how loved it is. I'm mostly sad that neither Saoirse nor Laurie seem to have a shot, when I once thought they might. Espeically Laurie, I was positive she'd sweep. If she had won SAG then I might say she could still win. But I think it's Allison's to lose now.
I hope that by some miracle, they both snag the Oscars. Mommy/daughter Oscars.
I really thought this was going to be Ronan's year 😣😣
But tbh... something tells me BAFTA could maybe go for Laurie Metcalf. Crossing my fingers.
Or Saoirse... hm. I'm gonna stay hopeful. lol
At this point Saoirse winning Actress is up there with my Brokeback winning Best Picture dreams. Let's hope it turns out better than that one.
I'd love to see Lesley Manville take the Bafta and then the Oscar, but this scenario will probably stay in my head and Janney's endless, ferocious campaigning will prevail.
Can't wait for the dissection of the Vanity Fair Hollywood Issue!
@3rtful - it's like Janney will have plenty more film roles. Metcalf has already said on the Marc Maron podcast that she has had not one movie offer since Lady Bird came out. If anyone is a "one-and-done," it's Metcalf, unfortunately.
Without getting anyone's hopes up, I think the preferential ballot will be VERY kind to Lady Bird.
With the preferential ballot, Best Picture is down to The Shape of Water and Dunkirk, maybe The Darkest Hour. If The Post had not underperformed so badly, I'd have it third.
Actress will be Frances McDormand, the directing snub pretty much guarantees McDonagh wins screenplay.
Lady Bird's strongest shot is still an upset by Metcalf (unlikely) or the Academy being shamed into Halle Berry-ing Greta Gerwig to a Best Director win that AMPAS didn't really mean but couldn't cope with the name calling that would come otherwise.
Best reviewed movie of the year?
Please. Paddington 2 owned the critics.