BAFTA Winners + Precursor Consensus = No Surprises on Oscar Night?
Sunday, February 18, 2018 at 11:03PM by Nathaniel R
Kaluuya wins "Rising Star"With only 13 days left until Oscar, the race in most of the marquee categories is sadly settled. BAFTA, held today in London, cemented the frontrunners honoring the exact same actors as the Critics Choice Awards, SAG, and Golden Globes. It's Gary Oldman, Frances McDormand, Sam Rockwell, and Alison Janney for the Oscars. Engrave the statues now. That's just too much consensus for Oscar to overthrow though we're personally baffled that none of that quartet's strong (and arguably better) competitors managed to put up a fight. What's more it's the first time in history when there's been no variation whatsoever in the prizes despite none of that foursome winning any of the top critics awards (NYFCC, LAFCA, and NSFC). Usually there's at least one 'we're-doing-our-own-thing' moment within the four categories in the televised precursors. Not this year. What happened to the tough battle we were suppose to have in Best Actress for example with Saoirse Ronan, Margot Robbie, and Sally Hawkins all seeming possible early on as victors.
The only real question on Oscar night given this lock-step agreement from all of the major precursors is within the rare categories wherein there wasn't total agreement...
Namely Best Original Screenplay and Best Picture. And given that not all of the major precursors give out the same below-the-line prizes or view them in similar ways as Oscar voters, we could still have a competition in our hands in a few of the below-the-line categories. The most competitive at this moment feel like Editing, Visual Effects, and the Sound categories. Maybe Cinematography if you don't think an 'At long last!' moment is happening for 14 time nominee Roger Deakins (Blade Runner 2049)
THE BAFTA WINNERS
Team "Billboards" were the big winners at BAFTA, repeating their SAG and GLOBE dominance.
Best Film Three Billboards Outside Ebbing Missouri
Best British Film Three Billboards Outside Ebbing Missouri
Best British Debut I Am Not a Witch
Best Film Not in English Language The Handmaiden
Best Documentary I Am Not Your Negro
Best Animated Film Coco
Best Director Guillermo del Toro, The Shape of Water
The Billboards backlash didn't hit Britain. It's probably an online only thing. Sorry guys.
With the triumph of I Am Not Your Negro here and its great box office last year, it feels likely that it would have been our Oscar winner had the Academy not stupidly allowed ESPN to pretend their OJ: Made in America TV miniseries was actually a movie.
Finally, isn't it wonderful that The Handmaiden was able to snag foreign film at BAFTA since South Korea didn't even submit it for the Oscars in 2016?
Best Actress Frances McDormand, Three Billboards...
Best Actor Gary Oldman, Darkest Hour
Best Supporting Actress Allison Janney, I Tonya
Best Supporting Actor Sam Rockwell, Three Billboards...
Your Oscar winners in 13 days. We shed quiet tears for Saoirse, Timothée, Laurie, and Willem who were this year's inarguable critical darlings in those categories.
EE Rising Star Award Daniel Kaluuya
BAFTA Fellowship Sir Ridley Scott
The "Rising Star" award is voted on by the public and Kaluuya took it. It surely helped that in addition to his great performance the movie was a smash hit and he had Black Panther coming around the time of the ceremony.
Best Adapted Screenplay James Ivory, Call Me By Your Name
Best Original Screenplay Martin McDonagh, Three Billboards...
This is James Ivory's 3rd BAFTA win (the other two were in Best Film, though). But Oscar has yet to hand him a statue. We're crossing our fingers for this 89 year-old legend and personal hero.
Will McDonagh take the Oscar or will they want to make sure Get Out (which took the WGA) doesn't go home empty-handed?
Best Original Music Alexandre Desplate, The Shape of Water
Best Cinematography Roger Deakins, Blade Runner 2949
Best Editing, Baby Driver
Best Production Design, The Shape of Water
Best Costume Design, Phantom Thread
Best Makeup and Hair, Darkest Hour
These all feel like very likely Oscar winners, too, with the possible exception of Cinematography (if The Shape of Water starts sweeping tech prizes or they want to make history with Mudbound) and Editing (which sometimes goes to flashy achievements like Baby Driver but often just defaults to Best Picture)
Best Sound, Dunkirk
Best Visual FX, Blade Runner 2049
Dunkirk could take both Sound categories (Oscar having two instead of BAFTA's one) but I'm guessing this is not a done deal. We could see a surprise win from Baby Driver... for at least one of them. Visual Effects is interesting this year. It's far past time to honor the Planet of the Apes franchise but they've never felt like giving them the statue before. The final part of the new trilogy could surprise with a win or Oscar might want to hand Blade Runner a statue (particularly if it loses in Cinematography). If only the statue could retroactively go to the original 1982 film which absurdly lost to E.T. in its year. Even if you love E.T. that win was bonkers given what Blade Runner managed before CGI.
Best British Animated Short Poles Apart
Best British Live Action Short Cowboy Dave
Neither of these are in the Oscar race. Have any of our British readers seen these ones? Do speak up.
How are you feeling about BAFTA and the Oscar race with just two weeks left to go?
Reader Comments (61)
After such a dramatic, exciting, and stressful awards season where anything seemed possible - how drearily predictable and not the true best of the year.
You know when you have that "feeling"?
- "The Shape of Water" wins Best Picture
- Sally Hawkins wins Best Actress (she kinda represents women who were victims of sexual harassment)
- "Lady Bird" takes Best Original Screenplay home, since the AMPAS doesn't really care about "Get Out" going home empty handed and "Three Billboards" isn't that brilliant... I mean, they have to honor a movie about a girl directed and written by a woman
- "Blade Runner" wins Best Cinematography and surprises with Best Visual Effects
- "Stand Up for Something" (Marshall) wins Best Original Song (it's the kind of message against social apathy)
In terms of the acting categories, it feels like this is going to be one of the dullest Oscars ceremonies ... ever. And I'm not rooting for anyone of the actors that are expected to win.
<Some of the best print critics acknowledged the controversy, but minimised or dismissed it, or bought into the Martin McDonagh defence that the messiness was part of his artistic intention.>
Can you imagine a screenwriter of color or a woman getting away with that asinine defense? That student would also be laughed out of a Masters program at NYU or UCLA. This is why the over-praised Quentin Tarantino has two Oscars: White men get over for doing the absolute least. I'm still rooting for Get Out, but I will be overjoyed if any film other than 3B takes BOS.
I am the least excited for this year's Oscars as I have ever been. I liked Janney a lot in I , Tonya but it cannot compare to Metcalf's beautifully layered work in Lady Bird. McDormand's dominance over Ronan, Robbie, and Hawkins continues to baffle me. At least Best Picture will be exciting due to the preferential ballot.
The Oscars aren't here to provide you with novel and surprising winners. It's a fight not even worth staking a claim on. "Deserving" winners are entirely subjective. I wouldn't have Oldman or Rockwell anywhere near these Oscars, personally. My heart is always with Saoirse, but that ship has sailed a long time ago for Frances. Totally fine with Janney, however, as a longtime West Wing nut. That doesn't diminish Metcalf's great work tho. Yeah, the BAFTAs are bullshit now sidestepping Manville, Grant, DDL, and Hawkins for Oscars stamps, but what can you do really? "Three Billboards" was a smug ass foreigner's version of small-town America that I didn't remotely recognize living that life all my damn life. The Oscars aren't falling for that minstrel show. "Get Out" vs. "TSOW" in BP preferential balloting. I'm predicting the former.
Precursors really have ruined the Oscars.
The only race that feels genuinely unsettled is Best Picture. I can literally see any one of these winning: Dunkirk, Get Out, Sound of Water, or 3BB. The acting picks are indeed baffling: how anyone thinks McDormand (who I normally love) did anything amazing in 3BB is beyond me. Ronan's performance in Lady Bird is just sublime, and Robbie & Hawkins were wonderful as well. This is shaping up to be one of those bummer-type of years.
You're almost certainly right, but I'm trying to hold out hope for some upsets by telling myself that the Oscars, now with an influx of young and diverse cinema types, may not be as similar to all the precursors as they once were.
@JoshR Agreed. I’d love to do away with the Critics Choice entirely.
If there’s an upset I’d love it to be Richard Jenkins. I know some people
accused the character of being stereotypically weak, but I loved his
performance and would cast my vote for him.
Maybe the Academy should disqualify anyone who votes in any other award-giving body from voting for their awards. Each year this is becoming more and more monotonous as everyone gives their awards to the same people. The Academy Awards themselves have turned into a tiresome anticlimax. The only joy comes from knowing it's finally over.