Green Book wins the PGA. Is Oscar next?
Sunday, January 20, 2019 at 7:27PM by Nathaniel R
Peter Farrelly accepting the Outstanding Producer for Theatrical Motion Pictures award for "Green Book"
The weekend before the Oscar nominations, Green Book gets another feather in its divisive cap. It took the top PGA prize last night. It was nominated against Black Panther, BlacKkKlansman, Bohemian Rhapsody, Crazy Rich Asians, The Favourite, A Quiet Place, Roma, A Star is Born, and Vice... most but not all of which will transfer to Oscar Best Picture nominations if past statistics hold. In the nine years of the modern Best Picture era (by which we mean 2009 and onward when the field expanded) only three movies have won the PGA that did not repeat at the Oscars: Gravity (2013), The Big Short (2015), and La La Land (2016). But it's really only two since Gravity tied at the PGA with 12 Years a Slave (the latter of which did not have to share the Oscar for Best Picture). This year's race will give us an even ten years of statistics in this new era. So by the end of the season, future PGA winners will feel like they have either a 70% or an 80% of winning the Oscar. Either way it's something to worry about if you don't like Green Book, and something to cheer for, if you do...
I'm personally wondering if people voting for Green Book aren't digging in their heels a little bit as a sort of 'I'll love what I love' stance after all the think pieces about the film's politics and recent unpleasant PR moments about bad behavior from the director and writer. The thing that might save Green Book in this final lap, unlike Three Billboards which was arguably derailed by the frequent politically charged swipes at it, is that it's essentially a warm movie; voters who love it are apt to feel it's harmless and even inspirational and, as a result, not understand what the people who hate it are fussed about.
One thing that's a bit surprising about Green Book's PGA win, is that the PGA are often (arguably) affected by the box office in their nominations and wins. Despite being branded a flop early on, Green Book was never really that and has had legs at the box office. That said, it's not a big hit either (currently at $41.9 million, or roughly the size of a Widows or a First Man) but so much of its awards appeal was about its "crowdpleasing" nature. Nevertheless, the underperformance at the box office doesn't seem to have dented it. On the other hand was PGA really going to vote Roma for their theatrical motion picture prize when it barely got a release and producers are more on the business side of the movies?
Green Book has now won the NBR, the Globe, and the PGA
Another odd thing that's worthy of note is that if Green Book wins Best Picture at the Oscars, it will be the third year in a row that the SAG winner for Outstanding Cast doesn't equal Best Picture. It never should have, of course, since people should be voting on their categories and not on overall movies, but that's how people have viewed the SAG ensemble award for over a decade. Green Book is not nominated for SAG's top prize.
We know Green Book won't lead the Oscar nominations since its ineligible for Score, and also won't have much play in the visual craft categories, but if it becomes a Film Editing nominee, watch out. I didn't predict it in that category for the Final Predictions and perhaps that was an error.
How do you think this will play out on Oscar night?
THE COMPLETE PGA AWARDS
TELEVISION
Episodic Drama The Americans (Season 6)
Episodic Comedy The Marvelous Mrs Maisel (Season 2)
Limited Series The Assassination of Gianni Versace
Televised Motion Picture Fahrenheit 451
Non Fiction Anthony Bourdain: Parts Unknown (Seasons 11 & 12)
Short Form Comedians in Cars Getting Coffee (Season 5)
Sports Program Being Serena (Season 1)
Game or Competition RuPaul's Drag Race (Season 10)
Outstanding Children's Program Sesame Street (Season 48)
Live Entertainment & Talk Last Week Tonight with John Oliver (Season 5)
MOTION PICTURES
Theatrical Picture Green Book
Animated Picture Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse
Documentary Picture Won't You Be My Neighbor?
Reader Comments (53)
I love how Drag Race slay the Competition!! Well done!!!!
there is bound to be someone on the chain (director, actors, producer, writer, costume designer) who tweeted something offensive in the past. Now that it is coming up in the heat of awards season is just dirt being dug up. outrage culture that you are feeding but is largely (and rightfully) a non-controversy by the public and, clearly, voters, even if not by you for some reason.
to take something someone involved in production tweeted about once in the past and use it as an excuse to not vote for a film is just dumb. Reminds me of when Sasha Stone actively campaigned against and refused to watch Viggo in Captain Fantastic because he didn’t vote fir Clinton. Hugely petty shit.
I found both "A Star is Born" and "Green Book" very satisfying movies- "A Star is Born" is the better film