Our Golden Globe Predictions!
Friday, January 4, 2019 at 2:09PM by Nathaniel R
Did you know that the Globes could have a greater impact on the Oscar nominations than usual? It's all in the calendar. See the morning after the Globes, Oscar nomination balloting finally begins. The dates don't always line up that exactly, so the Globes will definitely be fresh in mind when AMPAS begins voting. This is neither good nor bad, or rather it isn't either of things... yet. Let us pray that the HFPA uses their powers for good this year.
Yours truly (Nathaniel) does not follow TV as closely as he does movies but the Globes can be all over the place anyway, so this is rather like throwing darts while doing Bird Box cosplay... but it's fun! Predictions are after the jump...
TELEVISION PREDICTIONS
Supporting Actor TV
- Alan Arkin, The Kominsky Method (S1)
- Kieran Culkin, Succession (S1)
- Edgar Ramirez, The Assassination of Gianni Versace
- Ben Whishaw, A Very English Scandal
- Henry Winkler, Barry (S1)
Prediction: Winkler won the Emmy but we're going to go ahead and guess Ben Whishaw since he's also in Mary Poppins Returns which the Globe voters liked
Spoiler: They might go all in for Gianni Versace though so Edgar Ramirez
Supporting Actress TV
- Alex Bornstein, The Marvelous Mrs Maisel (S2)
- Patricia Clarkson, Sharp Objects
- Penelope Cruz, The Assassination of Gianni Versace
- Thandie Newton, Westworld (S2)
- Yvonne Strahovski, The Handmaid's Tale (S2)
Prediction: Alex Borstein
Spoiler: Penelope Cruz if they're all in for Versace.
Gripe: Can we reiterate again how it's completely unjust that TV's leading actors of either sex get three categories but the supporting actors of either sex from any type of show have to share just one! SAG also deals it dirty like this and both show you why Category Fraud is such a rampant thing; it exposes the truth that people don't respect or care about supporting actors, only the stars.
Actor in a Limited Series
- Antonio Banderas, Genius: Picasso
- Daniel Brühl, The Alienist
- Darren Criss, The Assassination of Gianni Versace
- Benedict Cumberbatch, Patrick Melrose
- Hugh Grant, A Very English Scandal
Prediction: Darren Criss
Spoiler: Hugh Grant, who I'd actually predict if Criss didn't feel like a steamroller for awards for his gay sociopath
Actress in a Limited Series
- Amy Adams, Sharp Objects
- Patricia Arquette, Escape at Dannemora
- Connie Britton, Dirty John
- Laura Dern, The Tale
- Regina King, Seven Seconds
Prediction: This is an extremely tough call because the HFPA are huge fans of both Amy Adams (9 nominations and 2 wins) and Laura Dern (7 nominations and 4 wins. Plus she's a former Miss Golden Globe). I'm guessing the voting margin will be razor thin but Amy Adams because her show got more press
Spoiler: Laura Dern
Limited Series
- The Alienist (TNT)
- The Assassination of Gianni Versace (FX)
- Escape at Dannamora (SHO)
- Sharp Objects (HBO)
- A Very English Scandal (Amazon Prime)
Prediction: Gianni Versace
Spoiler: A Very English Scandal
Drama Series, Actor
- Jason Bateman, Ozark (S1)
- Stephan James, Homecoming (S1)
- Richard Madden, Bodyguard (S1)
- Billy Porter, Pose (S1)
- Matthew Rhys, The Americans (S6)
Prediction: This genuinely feels like a toss-up and a five way race to me. The Globes love fresh meat so Stephan James or Richard Madden are possible "surprise win" threats. Billy Porter has a showy role. Jason Bateman is a Globe favourite (4 noms / 1 win)... so since I think it'll be close we'll give the edge to Matthew Rhys for their last opportunity with The Americans, even though the Globes love first seasons more than just about anything.
Spoiler: Anyone from a first season, but let's say Stephan James on the strength of also being in If Beale Street... and because the Globes love to honor new celebrities before anyone else does.
Drama Series, Actress
- Caitronia Balfe, Outlander (S4)
- Moss, The Handmaid's Tale (S2) *won last year*
- Oh, Killing Eve (S1)
- Roberts, Homecoming (S1)
- Keri Russell, The Americans (S6)
Prediction: Another tough call. Make history with Sandra Oh, go all in for The Americans via Keri Russell on their last shot, or continue the Julia Roberts love fest (9 nominations / 3 wins). I'm going to toss a coin and say Julia Roberts
Spoiler: Sandra Oh
Drama Series
- The Americans (FX) season 6 *first nomination for series*
- Bodyguard (Netflix) season 1
- Homecoming (Amazon Prime) season 1
- Killing Eve (BBC America) season 1
- Pose (FX) season 1
Prediction: Pose because they love these three things well: Ryan Murphy, musical numbers, and making history
Spoiler: Killing Eve which would make a great surprise winner - I know I'm behind but I just started watching it and... WOW.
Comedy Series, Actor
- Sacha Baron Cohen, Who is America? (S1)
- Jim Carrey, Kidding (S1)
- Michael Douglas, The Kominsky Method (S1)
- Donald Glover, Atlanta (S2) *won two years ago*
- Bill Hader, Barry (S1)
Prediction: Bill Hader
Spoiler: The Globes very rarely get hung up on one winner (unlike the Emmys) but if they do this is the category that they're most likely to do it in, historically speaking, so Donald Glover.
Comedy Actress
- Kristen Bell, The Good Place (S3)
- Candice Bergen, Murphy Brown (S11)
- Alison Brie, GLOW (S2)
- Rachel Brosnahan, The Marvelous Mrs Maisel (S2) *won last year*
- Debra Messing, Will & Grace (S10)
Prediction: The Globes haven't had a repeat winner here since Tina Fey in 30 Rock (you can thank the Globes for giving honors to multiple brilliant comics over the years since they never gave Julia Louis-Dreyfus the Globe for Veep they've completely spread the wealth for the past seven or so years unlike the Emmys. But I'm predicting Brosnahan to be a rare repeat.
Spoiler: Kristen Bell, because once you realize you love The Good Place (which the Globes just did) why not?
Comedy Series
- Barry (HBO) season 1
- The Good Place (NBC) season 3
- Kidding (SHO) season 1
- The Kominsky Method (Netflix) season 1
- The Marvelous Mrs Maisel (Amazon Prime) season 2 *won last year*
Prediction: The Globes like to switch this winner up every year so let's say Barry since it's fresh.
Spoiler: The Marvelous Mrs Maisel (though there hasn't been a repeat winner since Glee in 2009/2010.
MOVIE PREDICTIONS
Animated Feature
- Incredibles 2
- Isle of Dogs
- Mirai
- Ralph Breaks the Internet
- Spider-Man: Into the Spiderverse
Prediction: The Globes vote pretty much like the Oscars do here but I'm going to go out on a limb and say it's one of the years where they don't line up but people mistakenly think they will and predict Incredibles 2
Spoiler: Spider-Man: Into the Spiderverse
Should Win: Isle of Dogs
Foreign Film
- Capernaum (Lebanon)
- Girl (Belgium)
- Never Look Away (Germany)
- Roma (Mexico)
- Shoplifters (Japan)
Prediction: Roma
Spoiler: none
Should Win: Shoplifters
Score
- Black Panther, Goransson
- First Man, Hurwitz
- Isle of Dogs, Desplat
- Mary Poppins Returns, Shaiman
- A Quiet Place, Beltrami
Prediction: Mary Poppins Returns
Spoiler: A Quiet Place
Should Win: Hmmm. undecided but um hello Ludwig. Hiiiiiii.
Songs
- "All the Stars" Black Panther
- "Girl in the Movies" Dumplin'
- "Requiem for a Private War" Private War
- "Revelation" Boy Erased
- "Shallow" A Star is Born
Prediction/Should Win: "Shallow"
Spoiler: none
Screenplay
- Roma
- The Favourite
- Green Book
- If Beale Street Could Talk
- Vice
Prediction: Tough call even by Globe standards but let's say The Favourite
Spoiler: Green Book
Should Win: The Favourite in a walk.
Director
- Bradley Cooper, A Star is Born
- Alfonso Cuaron, Roma
- Peter Farrelly, Green Book
- Spike Lee, BlacKkKlansman
- Adam McKay, Vice
Prediction/Should Win: Alfonso Cuarón
Spoiler: Bradley Cooper but only because I think they'll give him Best Actor instead. It would be better for him if he lost actually, this category I mean, since the backlash would be strong.
Supporting Actress
- Amy Adams, Vice
- Claire Foy, First Man
- Regina King,If Beale Street Could Talk
- Emma Stone, The Favourite
- Rachel Weisz, The Favourite
Prediction/Should Win: This is a tough call since they Globes love most of these ladies. All of them, save Regina King, are previous winners. So I'm going with Regina King because her fandom has been building and she's nominated twice this year... and I don't think If Beale Street Could Talk is winning anything else
Spoiler: Amy Adams
Supporting Actor
- Mahershala Ali, Green Book
- Timothée Chalamet, Beautiful Boy
- Adam Driver, BlacKkKlansman
- Richard E Grant, Can You Ever Forgive Me?
- Sam Rockwell, Vice
Prediction: Mahershala Ali since they skipped over him for Moonlight giving the win (in a shocker) to Aaron Taylor Johnson instead in 2016
Spoiler: Let's be perverse and say Timothée Chalamet since they also skipped him over for the win recently and he's still young enough that they could be the first to award him... and you know they like doing that
Should Win: Richard E Grant in a walk
Actor, Musical or Comedy
- Christian Bale, Vice
- Lin-Manuel Miranda, Mary Poppins Returns
- Viggo Mortensen, Green Book
- Robert Redford, Old Man and the Gun
- John C Reilly, Stan & Ollie
Prediction: Viggo Mortensen in a surprise
Spoiler: Christian Bale
Should Win: Hmmm. No strong feelings about superiority in this race but maybe John C Reilly?
Actress, Musical or Comedy
- Emily Blunt, Mary Poppins Returns
- Olivia Colman, The Favourite
- Elsie Fisher, Eighth Grade
- Charlize Theron, Tully
- Constance Wu, Crazy Rich Asians
Prediction: Emily Blunt, I'd say this race is near "tie" levels. They love Blunt with 6 nominations and 1 win previously and musicals often give you the edge.
Spoiler: Olivia Colman obviously
Should Win: Olivia or Charlize
Musical or Comedy
- Crazy Rich Asians
- The Favourite
- Green Book
- Mary Poppins Returns
- Vice
Prediction: Aside from Crazy Rich Asians, it's easy to imagine any of these films winning given the HFPA's taste and history. But I'm opting for Green Book because they were very generous with the nominations... even Best Director!
Spoiler: Mary Poppins Returns
Should Win: The Favourite.
Actress, Drama
- Glenn Close, The Wife [READ OUR INTERVIEW]
- Lady Gaga, A Star is Born
- Nicole Kidman, Destroyer
- Melissa McCarthy, Can You Ever Forgive Me?
- Rosamund Pike, A Private War
Prediction: Lady Gaga...the quintessential Globe winner in so so many ways
Spoiler: I'd say "none" but for the outside possibility of sentiment for Glenn Close
Should Win: Close or McCarthy
Actor, Drama
- Bradley Cooper, A Star is Born
- Willem Dafoe, At Eternity's Gate
- Lucas Hedges, Boy Erased
- Rami Malek, Bohemian Rhapsody
- John David Washington, BlacKkKlansman
Prediction: Bradley Cooper, because I think they're going to want "His & Hers" wins
Spoiler: Rami Malek... who I fear stealing it from Cooper since Cooper might win Best Director instead
Should Win: Bradley Cooper
Also: SEXIEST CATEGORY
Drama
Prediction: A Star is Born
Spoiler: none... is that a risk? Possibly but this should be the easiest win for A Star is Born all season. It's so Globe-like
Should Win: A Star is Born
SIX PEOPLE WE'RE DYING TO SEE ON THE RED CARPET
1. Charlize Theron... it feels like it's been a spell, right?
2. Thandie Newton, glamourpuss.
3. Lady Gaga, duh.
4. Nicole Kidman, ∞
5. Troye Sivan and Billy Porter because men's fashion is so dull but the gays probably won't be!
6. Regina King
SEVEN MORE POSSIBLY FOOLISH PREDICTIONS
1. Lady Gaga will surprise by dressing slightly less flashy than usual (saving it up for the Oscars?)
2. Sandra Oh and Andy Samberg will do a decent job hosting.
3. Lots of Bohemian Rhapsody jokes
4. Tables that will look like they're having the most fun: Crazy Rich Asians and If Beale Street Could Talk. Tables that will look surprisingly tense: Black Panther and Mary Poppins Returns
5. Most popular during those commercial break shots of the stars mingling: Lin-Manuel Miranda, Emma Stone, ... and Lady Gaga of course.
6. The Jeff Bridges tribute they had? It really tied the room together.
Reader Comments (36)
All I know is that I don't want to see a reprise of last year's GG acting categories in Film, where all the people that you didn't want to win did so, and then proceeded to win every single other award afterward, ad nauseam. So predictable and unsatisfying.
The Guardian (not exactly experts in Awards predictions) seem convinced that Glenn Close will win!!!!
That said, it's the Golden Globes and I'm not confident of ANYTHING when it comes to that small panel's choices... which makes for exciting results, obviously...
I want my boyfriend Ben Whishaw to win so I'm glad you're predicting him.
To add, I get the impression that "spreading the wealth" and rewarding "bright new flashy stars" are the main focus of the Golden Globes when they're in upset-mode so... if Lady Gaga had either not been nominated or won for American Horror Story previously OR if she had a few box office smashes under her belt prior to now... she'd be a much surer thing. As it stands? They'll already feel like they've noticed and rewarded her, which could lead to a surprise... just imagine if Nicole Kidman took it!
I think Viggo Mortenson has a chance to win the Oscar. Tho I see Bale as a potential winner going forward. But I think Viggo can stake his claim here.
In Drama, Cooper appears to not have any competition. I just don't see it. Hawke is not there, Mortenson and Bale are in the opposing category.
Gaga seems a clear frontrunner, tho I wouldn't be shocked if she lost. Just as I wouldn't be shocked if she went the way of Madonna/Carrey. Madonna comparison is obvious. Carrey won in Drama. Close should win, easily. McCarthy is a very worthy winner tho.
Chalamet is very worthy, but very lead. So Grant would be nice. I see what you're saying about he category here.
Agree on King, tho surprises there aren't too surprising.
But I think The Favourite is exactly that in both Best Actress and Best Picture.
I'm with you on all of these but I've got Olivia beating Emily to the win.
A Star Is Born
Green Brook
Cuaron
Cooper
Gaga
Mortenson
Colman
Ali
King
The Globes only have two options shower AISB with everything or actually attempt to predict Oscar. Also, Gaga's rival in the song category is Kendrick Lamar. Don't be myopic because the only hip hop that exist to you was delivered by Missy Elliott.
Sadly, I agree with almost all of your predictions.
You're terrible at this.
I see BR coming winning BP
Last year three eventual Oscar winners (McDormand, Janney, Rockwell) came into Globe night with zero major critics prizes. I know every year is different, but I can see more movement than these predictions suggest.
I agree that individually, Adams and Close feel like spoilers. I'd still be a little surprised if both lost? Maybe I'm in denial.
Sandra Oh hosting might mean she's winning too ;-)
Jess -- we'll see. I've never claimed to be great at predicting the Globes ;)
Please make "Sexiest Category" a recurring shout-out. :)
I'm beginning to feel very sick. I don't wanna live in a world where another popstar wins over Glenn Close after Cher (Oscar 1987) and Madonna (Globes, 1996). I think it's better for my state of mind if I stay away from awards coverage if the signals after next Sunday are so apocalyptic.
Predictions:
VICE is this year's THE POST, strong coming in but going home empty handed.
Drama: Star Is Born
Director: Cooper
Actor, Drama: Malek
Actress, Drama: Gaga
Comedy/Musical: The Favourite
Actor, Com/Mus: Viggo
Actress, Com/Mus: Colman
Supporting Actor: Ali
Supporting Actress: King
Have you seen "The Bodyguard"? I fully expect Richard Madden to win for that, and maybe the show, too.
"Barry" will clean up as well: Hader, Winkler and the show.
They'll give Amy Adams another statue for "Sharp Objects."
And there's no way in hell they're not giving Sandra Oh a statue.
Director: Cooper
I’d love to see Strahovski win something for The Handmaid’s Tale... she’s much better than Ann Dowd’s overpraised caricature of a performance. I think Clarkson or Cruz will win. Borestein is irritating beyond measure.
As far as lead comedy tv actress - Bell or Brie would be a nice surprise!
I keep the same though: "If Glenn Close can't win here, forget her at the Oscars"
-The Critics Choice will go to consensus
-The old SAG may helped her before but with the AFTA merger?
-BAFTA will go to Colman (especially if she wins the GG)
Leon -- except there is almost no one more GLOBEY than Lady Gaga!
SanFran -- I have seen The Bodyguard but i hadn't heard many people talking about it so I assumed Madden wasnt in the running.
To be fair, Cher was one of those correct winners. Moonstruck is great and she's perfect...and quite "actorly".
Nathaniel, unfortunally Gaga has come strong even winning critics awards. Meanwhile Glenn Close path has been underwhelming (The GALECAs snub her). Close really need to win this Sunday to keep that narrative alove and obligated the SAG to SUPPORT HER.
@Nathaniel - The Bodyguard had the highest average ratings of any BBC show last year, before US/Netflix, so I'm assuming Madden's praised emotional performance has been widely seen, including by HFPA members.
Glenn Close. The only award that matters.
"I'm beginning to feel very sick. I don't wanna live in a world where another popstar wins over Glenn Close"
...
God, I love the gays. The drama of it all. lmao
Did someone seriously watch The Bodyguard and come away thinking "wow that guy can really act"?(!)
goran, I know right!
Yes! Shoplifters SHOULD win. I thought I may be the only person who thought so.
Best Supporting Actor is such hot trash to me this year.
Grant is the only ones who I like in the lineup.
At least Hoult and Clarke (First Man) would've livened things up. Or Elliott, who is pretty damn good in A Star is Born.
AH well...
goran & evangelina -- golden globes for his buttshot!
My guesses for the "A Star is Born" Love Party....
Best Actor, Bradley Cooper:
Best Actress: Lady Gaga
Best Actress, Emily Blunt.
Best Actor, Robert Redford
Best Director: Spike Lee
Best Song: A Star is Born
Best Score: Mary Poppins Returns
Screenplay: The Favorite
Supporting Actor: Richard E Grant
Supporitng Actress: Regina King
TV:
ACtress: Kristin Bell, Amy Adams, and Julia Roberts
Actor: Darren Criss, Billy Porter, Bill Hader
Supporting Actress: Patricia Clarkson
Supporitng Actor: Henry Winkler
Comedy: The Good Place
Drama: Pose
Comedy: Mary Poppins Returns
Drama: A Star is Born
Glenn Close a 7 time Oscar loser would be an enbarassment. Can the academy hand her such an albatross to carry?
It will be a Close race!! I'm still holding out for Glenn!! I dun HFPA is in a rush to give Gaga two awards tonight.
My two cents:
Drama: A Star is Born
Actress: Glenn Close
Actor: Malek
Com/Mus: The Favourite
Actress: Emily Blunt
Actor: Bale (was tinking o Mortensen, but i believe his recent brush off w Don Shirley's family n the n-word debacle had derailed his chances)
Supp Actress: Regina King
Supp Actor: Ali
Director: Cooper (if he loses here, then he'll win in Actor)
Foreign Pic: Roma
Animation: Into the Spider-verse
Screenplay: The Favourite
Song: Shallow
Score: Mary Poppins Returns
Close YES Colman YES Malik? Oscars look interesting now
If a live prediction counts, then I got Bohemian Rhapsody. Was split on Malek and Cooper.
Hey, Close won. That's good.
The randomness of their Boho Rhapsody love and Ali winning supporting almost make me think all the Oscar winners will be different.
Congrats to all the Close fans - I am honestly happy for you and was moved by her speech.
That said, I am totally befuddled by the Bohemian Rhapsody wins. I understand people don't like ASIB, but there were three other possibilities in Best Picture and Best Actor as well (and they gave one big award to Beale Street, so why not award it BP?). I hope the press asks a lot of questions backstage about Bryan Singer.