Emmys Watch: Will Anya Taylor-Joy win in the crowded Lead Actress in a Limited Series category?
Tuesday, June 29, 2021 at 11:30AM
Our team is breaking down the top contenders in all the major Emmy races and highlighting some of our favorites over the next few weeks.
So far, Anya Taylor-Joy has won the Golden Globe, SAG Award and Critics Choice Award for "The Queen's Gambit." Is an Emmy next?By: Christopher James
The limited series field became the go-to place for stories about women this past year. Great performances from Oscar winning actresses go head to head with buzzy, zeitgeisty performances from rising stars. There’s no shortage of contenders, but a shortage of slots. Only five women will earn nominations when they are announced on July 13th. Perennial winner Anya Taylor-Joy (The Queen’s Gambit) will likely show up. Will she win though once up again Oscar winner Kate Winslet (Mare of Easttown)? Could a critical favorite like Michaela Coel (I May Destroy You) or Thuso Mbedu (The Underground Railroad) surprise? Or will they end up as a shocking snub?
Read on to see who might be in contention this year...
If Michaela Coel gets into Lead Actress in a Limited Series for "I May Destroy You," could she pull an upset?
Proven Awards Players
The Queen’s Gambit star Anya Taylor-Joy has not lost a major precursor hit. The star of the Netflix juggernaut won this category at the Golden Globes, Critics Choice and SAG Awards. There’s no question that she’s heading into this race as the frontrunner and is a lock for a nomination.
Though it has been one year since its premiere, critics are still loudly banging the drum for I May Destroy You and its creator/star Michaela Coel. Her Golden Globes snub only brought more attention to her performance and the show at large. Its frank portrayal of sexual assault and the PTSD trauma that lingers has struck a chord that still rings loud and true. With SAG and Critics Choice nominations, it’s clear that people are discovering her performance and it’s likely the Emmys will take notice.
The only other SAG nominee and Golden Globe nominee still eligible is Oscar winner Nicole Kidman for her work in HBO’s The Undoing. The star-studded mystery thriller was well-watched, but had more mixed reactions from audiences and critics. Its pedigree puts it towards the top of the conversation, but it’s hard to call Kidman’s nomination anything more than name-checking. Still, the Emmys love her and The Undoing was a popular hit, so we shouldn’t count Kidman out.
The only other performer who has reaped a major nomination heading into the Emmys is Tessa Thompson, the star of Amazon’s romance Sylvie’s Love. Thompson was among the nominees for the Critics Choice Lead Actress in a Limited Series or TV Movie category. Recently, the Emmys have favored limited series more than TV movies in these combined acting categories. With such a crowded field, Thompson is unlikely to earn a nomination for more subdued work, even if she is very winning in the film.
Kate Winslet is looking to win her second Emmy for her performance in HBO's "Mare of Easttown."
Late Breaking Juggernauts
The most recent cultural TV obsession has been Mare of Easttown and a large part of its success can be attributed to Kate Winslet’s performance as the titular detective. Winslet nails both the tricky Pennsylvanian accent and the layered portrayal of grief throughout the seven episode run. Along with Anya Taylor-Joy, Winslet is the only other lock for a nomination in this category. When all is said and done, she could be the eventual winner too. She’s previously won this category for HBO’s Mildred Pierce.
Arguably though, the most watched contender in this category is WandaVision. Wanda Maximoff herself, Elizabeth Olsen, received a great deal of praise for the show, in which she brought to life fifty years of sitcom tropes while working through her grief. The best shot for a WandaVision nomination is in Supporting Actress for Kathryn Hahn. However, Olsen would be the second most likely place for the show to earn nominations. Plus, if WandaVision is going to show up in the Limited Series category, it will likely have to show up here too.
One of the possible major contenders in all categories this year is The Underground Railroad. The Barry Jenkins miniseries was one of the most recent series to premiere, as it dropped all ten episodes on Amazon Prime mid-May. While the direction has gotten the lion’s share of the praise, critics are heralding Thuso Mbedu’s impressive breakout performance as Cora in the series. It’s possible that Mbedu could be snubbed in favor of more famous contenders, even if the show garners other major nominations. Still, fans of the show are likely to show support for the central performance of The Underground Railroad.
We can also never count out biopic mimicry. Specifically, the Genius series has always landed acting nominations for its central performances (Geoffrey Rush for Einstein and Antonio Banderas for Picasso). Cynthia Erivo could easily get nominated for Genius: Aretha. She’s at the exact right point in her career to make it onto awards ballots. Additionally, Danielle Brooks takes on another musical icon in Robin Roberts Presents: Mahalia. If the Emmys really want to reward real-life performances, Brooks could also make it in.
Kate Mara contends in Hulu's "A Teacher," centering on her inappropriate relationship with a student (Nick Robinson).
The Underdogs
There are plenty of other underdogs eligible this year who have not showed up at any of the precursors. These are all performers from somewhat Emmy popular categories who haven’t heavily factored into the race yet. HBO Max has a pair of contenders that could sneak in - Ruth Wilson (Oslo) and Naomie Harris (The Third Day). Oslo is more recent, so Wilson likely has more of a chance than Harris. Kate Mara received some strong notices for Hulu’s half-hour drama A Teacher. The first season of Dirty John saw buzz for star Connie Britton. Could Amanda Peet end up with an Emmy nomination for the second season of the anthology series?
If voters are more in the mood for musicals and comedies, there are also underdogs on the ballot for them. Dolly Parton projects always receive nominations for TV Movie, could Christmas on the Square earn support for acting for both Parton and Christine Baranski? The Emmys also love Melissa McCarthy. Could that love lead to a surprise nomination for Superintelligence on HBO Max?
Horror fans may rally around Victoria Pedretti for The Haunting of Bly Manor. Yet its predecessor didn’t receive much traction a few years ago.
PREDICTIONS
Who are you rooting for?
more on the upcoming Emmys
- COMEDY
- Actress Comedy
- Actor Comedy
- Supporting Actress, Comedy
- Supporting Actor, Comedy
- DRAMA
- Actress Drama
- Actor Drama
- Supporting Actress, Drama
- Supporting Actor, Drama
- LIMITED SERIES / MOVIE
- Lead Actor Limited Series/Movie
- MORE...
- Emmy Ballots
- FYC The Handmaid's Tale
- FYC Kate Winslet and Mare of Easttown
- FYC Marielle Heller, Queen's Gambit
- FYC Hannah Waddingham, Ted Lasso
- FYC Elizabeth Olsen, WandaVision
- FYC I May Destroy You
- FYC Small Axe
- FYC For All Mankind
Reader Comments (25)
Anya Taylor Joy, Kate Winslet and Michaela Coel are very worthy locks. Just behind them is Elizabeth Olsen, who I really hope could get in.
I don't think Nicole Kidman is getting in. She was snubbed for Big Little Lies season 2, so why not for The Undoing? That would give room for an interesting and exciting fifth spot.
I can see Kidman missing here. Helicopter chase aside, I really enjoyed the high-gloss foolishness of The Undoing. Kidman gets a couple of excellent moments (the police call in particular), but overall it falls to the lower end in her series of "women who lie to themselves". Anya Taylor-Joy feels like the only true lock for a nomination to me, and probably close to the win, but I do wonder if they'll really appreciate the work Elizabeth Olsen did. Her performance was a very pleasant surprise of genre mixing, with some really moving moments. If people find Taylor Joy too one note and enough people still haven't seen I May Destroy You, Olsen could present a nice alternative for voters in the end.
As much as I enjoyed Anya Taylor Joy in The Queens Gambit, this has to be between Michaela Coel and Kate Winslet for me, both were incredible.
Arguably though, the most watched contender in this category is WandaVision.
Actually, at least from what we know, The Queen's Gambit has had more viewers than that show.
This is such a competitive category! There were a ton of exciting performances here, and I think studio campaigns are going to matter a lot for nominations.
Locks
Anya-Taylor Joy
Kate Winslet
They have the buzz, critical acclaim, and their studios behind them. They won't miss.
Near-Lock
Michaela Coel
She has a ton of critical love and her show feels like a lock for mini-series and writing. It's easy to see her being honored there (and taking home multiple wins), but I think she's in.
Next in Line
Elizabeth Olsen
Cynthia Erivo
Thuso Mbedu
Tessa Thompson
Nicole Kidman
Olsen is on a hit show, but the buzz for her has died down a bit. Still, her show seemed to be big, and Disney got the Mandolarian in last year, I suspect on the strength of their campaign, so they can probably push her over the line.
Genius is also a Disney property that has received nominations for its leads during the previous 2 iterations. Add to that the fact that Emmy voters have looked kindly upon bio-series performances these past few years - nominating Octavia Spencer and Edie Falco - and it's hard to see her missing.
Tessa, Thuso, and Nicole all come from strong networks. But, I think Nicole probably won't get the campaign that Winslet and Coel will get. She'll also still get an invite as a producer. Thuso could be a real breakout, but her show's rollout hasn't helped her at all. I think voters are already fullfilling their "look we get to crown a star" scratch with Anya. Tessa's film feels too intimate to break out here. However, I wouldn't be surprised by any of them as nominees.
Nominees
1. Anya Taylor-Joy
2. Kate Winslet
3. Michaela Coel
4. Elizabeth Olsen
5. Cynthia Erivo
Alternate: Thuso Mbedu
@Val, I think the thing that could help Olsen is the fact that she mixes so many television specific genres. I think there's something about that which could be appealing to emmy voters specifically, many of who got nominations and wins for sitcoms. I think they'll appreciate what she's doing.
If I'm really honest - I think Anya Taylor-Joy got rewarded quite enough for Queens Gambit - I didn't think it was THAT outstanding to rake in all the awards... !! Sorry Anya share the love
Michaela Coel is so far ahead of everybody here in terms of quality. It’s devastating that she’ll probably lose just because her show wasn’t as ‘popular’.
I really hope Olsen can squeeze in. I’ve been rewatching Sorry for Your Loss and she’s so underrated it hurts. The range between her performances in SYFL and WandaVision, despite similar subject matter, is just incredible.
My gut says Winslet.
It's Kate Winslet to lose, right?
It's definitely a stacked category. That said Winslet put herself in a VERY good position being in a buzzy show everyone seemed to be talking about and also being very good in it. There's no way Anya Taylor Joy misses a nomination though and I think there'll be heads rolling if Michaela Coel misses as well. I'd be shocked if the winner isn't one of these three.
Do the Emmys really love Kidman? I'm not sure they do.
This race will be such a nail biter. ATJ has been the front runner for so long it seems wild to think she could lose. But Winslet really does seem to have the buzz.
I understand where the confidence in Taylor-Joy comes from, but she didn't have competition at all. Only Coel, who unfortunately had too challenging a series and role for groups like SAG or Globes to embrace. It's the kind of critical darling (like Breaking Bad) the Emmys might actually take to more easily.
It's an incredibly tough category, but I do feel weirdly confident given the release date, buzz, type of role and name pedigree that Winslet should be able to take the win (before eventually sweeping the rest of the season).
If I said that Erivo was a disappointment as Aretha it would imply that I'd expected more from the performance (and the miniseries), and I didn't. Incredibly, Jennifer Hudson (arguably a much less accomplished actress) generates more excitement in the Respect trailer than Erivo did in the entire eight episodes.
My personal Emmy ballot:
Michaela Coel
Naomie Harris
Elizabeth Olsen
Anya Taylor-Joy
Kate Winslet
(honorable mention: Amanda Peet)
I don't believe in a nomination for Olsen, frankly, for a number of reasons (including the great quality of the competition). But I also didn't believe Maria Bakalova at the Oscars and she was there, so I'm not that good with predictions.
I only have Taylor-Joy and Winslet from your five. Anyone talking about locks besides them in a category this competitive is overconfident.
Thuso Mdebu I think gets in on the strength of Railroad (look at how many low-profile performers got in for When They See Us - if the show is liked, premiered at the right time and seen as important enough, you can get on). I think Erivo gets on since, as you point out, no Genius lead has missed yet.
After that, I think I May Destroy You's early release date and difficult subject matter will have Michaela Coel unexpectedly miss, like Kaitlyn Dever and Merritt Wever did for Unbelievable. Elizabeth Olsen could get in, but I think mainstream genre bias in a crowded category will lessen her chances. Kidman could get in, or could miss like she did for Big Little Lies.
So my NGNG prediction for the final spot is previous nominee Danielle Brooks getting in for Mahalia Jackson (this year's equivalent of Octavia Spencer in Self Made last year).
I really thought Anya would be sailing smoothly to an Emmy win too until I saw Mare.
Kate even in this stage of her career is revelatory. Rooting for her to win!
My ballot:
Winslet
Taylor Joy
Olsen
Kidman
and Christine Baranski
Any way to get her into the Emmys again if they continue to snub her for The Good Fight.
Kate should win. She gave the best performance of any actors for the last...cant even remember... her acting in mare is on a different level. If it was a movie...she could also sweep and win the oscars. Sorry anya but there is no way kate losing this if its really the best performance.
@Rama, I think Christine Baranski is doing stellar work in The Good Fight but it's not under the Limited Series category. Also, not enough people have seen this show, because, honestly, who the f**$ wants to shell out money for the crappy Paramount+ streamer unless you're addicted to Star Trek (like my husband).
My pick is Michaela Coel, but I would be happy if she gets a writing/producer award at the minimum.
Winslet is gonna win. Not enough people have seen Ammonite and are equating her bare-faced, stripped-down, unglamorous weariness acting in Mare as revolutionary. Kate Winslet ALWAYS delivers a fine performance, with or without make-up.
@ Pam
I think Rama meant that if Baranski can't get arrested in Drama for The Good Fight, they'll settle for a nod in Limited for the Dolly Parton project.
Seems like there's another Val in here. That previous comment was not mine. I'm just glad they weren't mean to anyone personally.
The Kate or Anya discussion will really benefit Micaela.
It seems like the hottest most recent thing tends to perform best (since miniseries air all through the year and they don’t compete for attention) so my instinct says Kate wins.
All these comments making all these excuses for why Michaela Coel won’t win like the shows release date and subject matter while missing the obvious fact that she’s a Black woman in a racist industry. Her show might be the best television series of the past decade, and they cant even deign her worthy of a nomination.