Emmy Category Analysis: Lead Actor in a Limited or Anthology Series or Movie
Tuesday, August 30, 2022 at 10:00PM 
Andrew Garfield in Under the Banner of Heaven
I had fully expected Ben Foster to be here on behalf of the TV movie part of this category for The Survivor, but he’s not, and this race is actually dominated by men from series that didn’t earn a spot in the top race. Only Michael Keaton and Sebastian Stan saw their shows score overall, and both Andrew Garfield and Oscar Isaac represent their series’ only bids. Those statistics make it seem like Keaton wins this in a walk, but these are seriously good performances that are worth considering alongside his. Here are the nominees…
Himesh Patel in Station Eleven
NOMINEES:
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Colin Firth as Michael Peterson - The Staircase
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Andrew Garfield as Detective Jeb Pyre - Under the Banner of Heaven
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Oscar Isaac as Jonathan Levy - Scenes from a Marriage
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Michael Keaton as Dr. Samuel Finnix - Dopesick
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Himesh Patel as Jeevan Chaudhary - Station Eleven
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Sebastian Stan as Tommy Lee - Pam and Tommy
Oscar Isaac with Jessica Chastain in Scenes from a Marriage
ANALYSIS:
Let’s start with Garfield and Isaac. Under the Banner of Heaven is a very strong series that finds Garfield once again playing a man grappling with religious devotion (see: Silence, Hacksaw Ridge) as he investigates a brutal murder by Mormon fundamentalists. It’s an immersive and very compelling turn, but the fact that he’s all alone without any of his worthy costars, like Sam Worthington, Wyatt Russell, or Daisy Edgar-Jones, or the show’s directors or artisans means that Emmy voters weren’t wowed by the show. Isaac’s series is much smaller-scale since it’s basically a duet with the not-nominated Jessica Chastain, so he has a great deal of screentime. (Isaac won at the Hollywood Critics Association TV Awards, but most of his competition were in a separate streaming category.)
Colin Firth with Michael Stuhlbarg in The Staircase
Initially Firth seemed like a strong challenger for Keaton before The Staircase tanked in nominations, receiving just two (his onscreen wife Toni Collette is the other). Regardless of how the limited series was perceived, his performance is excellent, and it’s also atypical for the usually likable actor.
Patel is a different story altogether, delivering something quite nuanced, and voters may have a tough time with the fact that he appears only sporadically through the show. Though it missed the top category, Station Eleven did earn seven nominations, including writing and directing bids, but if it does win something, this category would be a surprising place to do it.
Sebastian Stan in Pam and Tommy
To predict Stan to win if his costar and onscreen wife Lily James doesn’t seems crazy, and given that I think Amanda Seyfried will win in the corresponding race, I can’t. But Pam and Tommy did get a much warmer Emmy reception than expected and Lily James is barely in the first episode. It's wonderful to see Stan exhibiting considerably more enthusiasm than he does in Marvel movies and other projects. It’s certainly A PERFORMANCE, and I think will earn some votes.
But that brings us back to Keaton, who rolled onto the stage at the SAG Awards when he was in the bathroom as his name was called and who has spent the past year delivering passionate acceptance speeches for this role. Without anyone from The White Lotus in competition here, it's all but a guaranteed victory for Dopesick and its compelling star.
Michael Keaton in Dopesick
Will Win: Michael Keaton - Dopesick
Should Win: Andrew Garfield - Under the Banner of Heaven
Spoiler: Colin Firth - The Staircase
WHO ARE YOU ROOTING FOR?
MORE ANALYSIS
- Lead Actress - Comedy Series
- Lead Actress - Drama Series
- Lead Actress - Limited or Anthology Series
- Lead Actor - Comedy Series
- Supporting Actress – Comedy Series
- Supporting Actress – Drama Series
- Supporting Actress – Limited Series
- Supporting Actor – Drama Series
Reader Comments (6)
This seems like Keaton in a cakewalk, and deserved. So glad that Himesh Patel made it in — I wouldn’t think Station 11 would be on the Emmy radar, so he can represent all the fine performances on the show.
I know Nathaniel didn’t like Midnight Mass, but Hamish Linklater was excellent and would’ve been my winner! So menacing and pious at the same time.
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It's going to be Michael Keaton and that's fine. I would vote for Colin Firth. His last shot is mesmerizing.
Funny how SAG and Emmy voters took sides in the Chastain-Isaac marriage.
Ah yes, we finally get to the category which I dubbed Emmy nomination morning as the most fuckable because man oh man look at this list.
That said, I'm shocked I've ONLY seen Andrew Garfield's show. I've been meaning to see the rest, but I just haven't been in the mood for any of them. The only reason I saw Under the Banner of Heaven was the post-Oscar glow for Garfield and I do wish more of his co-stars were acknowledged (then again I feel the same re: The Dropout w/r/t Amanda Seyfried and her co-stars).
Anyways, Keaton definitely has this in the bag. Slightly rooting for Garfield, Oscar Isaac or Sebastian Stan mostly since Garfield should've won the Oscars this year, Isaac is super under-rewarded as an actor, and because when will Stan get another opportunity like this? But Batman will certainly beat Spider-Man, Moon Knight and the Winter Soldier.
I think Keaton is the frontrunner. He did great work in a popular and well-loved series, and he gave a ton of great speeches this year.
However, I think his main challenger, who will likely lose, is Isaac. For the past few years this category has gone to 40-something movie stars who are beloved, but without major awards wins. Isaac fits that mold, and also gave two really great lead actor in a miniseries performances this year.
Several of these nominees are terrific (particularly Garfield), but I'm a Firth voter. I had such a nuanced response to this character and his possible guilt throughout The Staircase, and I have to credit Firth's marvelous performance.