Team Experience Predictions Chart - Round 5 - Final Oscar Predictions

Every other week, we’re going to poll The Film Experience Writers on where the Oscar race stands. This week, all the writers make their final Oscar nomination predictions.

Are you ready for Oscar nominations? Allison Williams and Riz Ahmed are set to announce the nominees for the 95th Academy Awards at 5am PST on Tuesday, January 24th. Nathaniel has already detailed out his predictions, but he’s not the only one with thoughts on this year’s race. The Film Experience writers have all made their final Oscar nomination predictions. 

Who will have the best score? Check out our predictions after the jump…

The Team

Before we jump into the predictions, let's quickly recap which writers are contributing to these predictions.

• A.B. = Abe Fried-Tanzer 

• B.C. = Baby Clyde

• B.M. = Ben Miller

• C.J. = Chris James

• C.A. = Cláudio Alves

• E.B. = Eric Blume

• E.C. = Eurocheese

• E.G. = Elisa Giudici

• G.D. = Glenn Dunks

• N.R. = Nathaniel Rogers (and you can see all his individual charts here)

• N.T. = Nick Taylor

For more about the Film Experience team, visit the About section.

BEST PICTURE

For the second time in a row, Everything Everywhere All At Once led the predictions from the Film Experience writers. It’s neck and neck with Golden Globes winner The Banshees of Inisherin at the top. Overall, the first seven positions feel locked up, with all writers also unanimously predicting  The Fabelmans, Top Gun: Maverick, Avatar: The Way of Water, Elvis and Tár. After leading the BAFTA nominations, All Quiet on the Western Front also feels like a likely Oscar nominee, predicted by all but one writer.

The last two slots are the ones up for grabs. Women Talking hung in the predicted 10, but support dwindles for the film, which has yet to expand. Meanwhile, Netflix’s RRR rounded out the top 10, surging up three spots from the last set of predictions. After falling off everyone’s predictions completely, The Whale re-emerged as a potential contender following its PGA nomination. Other titles cited as potentials for a Best Picture nomination are Triangle of Sadness, Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery, The Woman King and Aftersun.

BEST DIRECTOR

The Best Director race continues to be chaotic leading up to nominations. Only Steven Spielberg (The Fabelmans) is unanimously predicted by all writers. Right behind him are the Daniels (Everything Everywhere All At Once), who recently won the Critics Choice Award. The other three slots have a great deal of friction. Todd Field (Tár) is widely predicted, but is still vulnerable in this category. Meanwhile, the team is split on whether Martin McDonagh (The Banshees of Inisherin) is a frontrunner or on the outs. Previous winner James Cameron hopes to get another nomination for Avatar: The Way of Water, but support for him in this category seems to be fading.

So who could take those spots? The directors branch has been going more international, so S.S. Rajamouli (RRR), Edward Berger (All Quiet on the Western Front), Park Chan-Wook (Decision to Leave) and Ruben Ostlünd (Triangle of Sadness) all have chances to break through. In terms of most likely spoiler, Charlotte Wells has rocketed up the charts for her debut feature, Aftersun. With so many other contenders getting boosts, both Baz Luhrmann (Elvis) and Sarah Polley (Women Talking) found their chances shrink right before nominations.

BEST ACTRESS

Was the omission of Michelle Williams from SAG not just a fluke? Our team seems to think so, as she fell out of the predicted top five for the first time since polling the Film Experience Writers. According to the team, Blanchett, Yeoh and Deadwyler are all in, while Ana de Armas (Blonde) and Viola Davis (The Woman King) are most likely to round the category out.

BEST ACTOR

While the race for a Best Actor winner remains competitive, nominations feel pretty cut and dry according to the team. The most likely lineup appears to be Colin Farrell (The Banshees of Inisherin), Brendan Fraser (The Whale), Austin Butler (Elvis), Bill Nighy (Living) and Paul Mescal (Aftersun). Tom Cruise still has the potential to bump out Nighy or Mescal, but it appears the Top Gun: Maverick star will come up just a bit short.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

Kerry Condon (The Banshees of Inisherin) remains the only unanimously predicted nominee in this category, though some other slots have firmed up a bit. After winning both the Golden Globes and Critics Choice Awards, Angela Bassett jumped up to second place in the writer’s predictions for Black Panther: Wakanda Forever. Both Everything Everywhere All At Once women, Jamie Lee Curtis and Stephanie Hsu, are predicted to earn Oscar nominations, though Curtis feels more secure than Hsu. The fifth slot feels completely up for grabs. Right now, Dolly De Leon is predicted to receive the nomination for Triangle of Sadness. A few writers are predicting a surprise nomination for Nina Hoss from Tár. Others feel that the SAG nomination and enthusiasm for the film will help Hong Chau sneak in for The Whale. The biggest drop has been Jessie Buckley for Women Talking. Last time we polled the writers, she was in second place. Now, only one writer is predicting her to show up in the lineup.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

While much of the Supporting Actor category has firmed up, the fifth slot feels incredibly competitive. All writers have predicted Ke Huy Quan (Everything Everywhere All At Once), Brendan Gleeson (The Banshees of Inisherin) and Barry Keoghan (The Banshees of Inisherin) to show up on Oscar nomination morning. Paul Dano (The Fabelmans) also feels securely in fourth place, according to all but one writer. So who earns the last position? Could The Fabelmans buzz also bring Judd Hirsch into the category for his short role? Eddie Redmayne gained more traction after his SAG nomination, even though The Good Nurse isn’t a factor in any other race. Other possible nominees in this category include Ben Whishaw (Women Talking), Brad Pitt (Babylon) and Brian Tyree Henry (Causeway).

BEST SCREENPLAY CATEGORIES

Both of the screenplay categories saw little fluctuation since our last set of predictions. For Original Screenplay, a consensus has formed around these five movies - The Banshees of Inisherin, Everything Everywhere All At Once, The Fabelmans, Tár and Triangle of Sadness. Potential spoilers include Aftersun and Decision to Leave. Meanwhile, in Adapted Screenplay, only two films seem secure for nominations - Women Talking and Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery. After a strong week of precursors, The Whale appears to be a solid third place in this category. The other two slots could go to a myriad of movies, and consensus has not formed about which have the best shot. The Academy could add another nomination to the tallies of Best Picture nominees like Top Gun: Maverick or All Quiet on the Western Front. Conversely, a smaller movie like Living, She Said, Guillermo Del Toro’s Pinocchio or White Noise could round out the category.

BEST ANIMATED FEATURE

The top four slots for Best Animated Feature appear pretty locked up. Guillermo Del Toro’s Pinocchio is at the top of every writer’s list, while sleeper hit Puss in Boots: The Last Wish rises to second place. Both Marcel the Shell with Shoes on and Turning Red are tied in third, each with one writer predicting a shocking snub.

The fifth slot is anyone’s game. At the last minute, Little Nicholas, Happy as Can Be jumped up to the fifth slot, with three writers predicting its nomination. It’s a war between independent animation (Inu-Oh, My Father’s Dragon, Mad God), studio animation (The Bad Guys) and ambitious Netflix projects (Apollo 10 ½: A Space Age Childhood, Wendell & Wild).

BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE

One can never predict the documentary branch. It seems like each year they snub a frontrunner (see Jane). That’s why no single movie was predicted by all writers. The surest bets this year are All the Beauty and the Bloodshed, Navalny, Fire of Love and All That Breathes, but expect one to fall out when all is said and done. The most likely film to receive that final fifth slot is The Territory, but there are plenty of other documentaries that make for stiff competition. In particular, Descendant and Moonage Daydream are in the hunt.

BEST INTERNATIONAL FEATURE

After racking up shortlist citations and BAFTA nominations, All Quiet on the Western Front sits at the top of the category. It’s the only film predicted by all writers. Most writers are confident that Decision to Leave, Argentina, 1985 and Close will earn nominations, but at least one writer predicts a high profile snub for each of those movies. If these four movies are pretty firm, what’s the fifth movie that joins it? Poland’s EO right now has the most mentions from writers. However, there are many other shortlisted films that have some support, particularly Bardo (from Oscar winner Alejandro Gonzalez Inarritu) and The Quiet Girl.

BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY

Only the frontrunner in this category, Top Gun: Maverick, seems to be safe. Normally the category primarily features Best Picture contenders, but the ASC nominations included a wide variety of films outside of the Best Picture category. It appears that Empire of Light and The Batman are the ASC nominees most likely to repeat, while only a few writers believe Bardo or Elvis can manage nominations.

If the Oscars are going to deviate from the ASC guild, what movies will they gravitate towards? All Quiet on the Western Front stands the best chance, now that it is a major Best Picture contender. Avatar: The Way of Water hopes to repeat the first film’s nomination in this category. In fact, the first Avatar won this category in 2009. Janusz Kaminski is a regular nominee for Best Cinematography, but it appears that he may be snubbed for his work in The Fabelmans. Other Oscar hopefuls that could appear here might be Babylon, Tár, or The Banshees of Inisherin. Who knows, even EO could surprise like it did at the LA Film Critics Association. After all, we remember when Never Look Away came out of nowhere to earn a nomination here.

BEST COSTUME DESIGN

Three opulent movies lead the Best Costume Design predictions, with mentions from all of the Film Experience writers - Elvis, Black Panther: Wakanda Forever and Babylon. Though it hasn’t factored into other categories, Mrs. Harris Goes to Paris also stands a good chance at receiving an Oscar nomination. There’s much debate over what other movie will join these four in the category. Based on the writers, Best Picture frontrunner Everything Everywhere All At Once stands the best chance. However, they could just as likely reward period films like Living, Blonde or Amsterdam. Another Best Picture nominee like The Fabelmans could sneak in. Who knows? We could get a curveball nomination from the contemporary looks of Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery or the sword and sandal designs of The Woman King.

BEST FILM EDITING

Best Film Editing has often been a major bellwether for Best Picture. That’s why all seven of the mentioned movies from writers are all contenders for the top prize. At the top of the list are the blockbuster sequel, Top Gun: Maverick, and the A24 sci-fi stunner Everything Everywhere All At Once. From here, the category gets a bit murkier. The glitzy excess of Elvis certainly looks like “most editing,” which should help it earn an Oscar nomination. From there, a duo of large epics - Avatar: The Way of Water and All Quiet on the Western Front - vie for spots alongside some of the less flashy frontrunners - The Fabelmans and The Banshees of Inisherin.

BEST MAKEUP & HAIRSTYLING

Ten movies made the shortlist for Best Makeup & Hairstyling, so all have a 1 in 2 shot at a nomination. The strongest contenders in the category are The Whale and Elvis. From there, the branch can go many adventurous ways, as they’ve been known to focus more on the craft rather than just rubber stamping Best Picture nominees. Between superhero movies, The Batman is likely to beat out Black Panther: Wakanda Forever. Just as Ana de Armas surged in Best Actress, Blonde jumped up in the writer’s predictions. All Quiet on the Western Front also swapped spots with Babylon to round out the predicted five. Still, some writers insist we shouldn’t count out David Cronenberg’s Crimes of the Future or Amsterdam, despite their lower profile in the awards race.

BEST ORIGINAL SCORE

Of the fifteen shortlisted films in this category, the writers only cited eight movies. In fact, the top five movies were pretty consistent across all writers. Babylon, The Fabelmans, Guillermo Del Toro’s Pinocchio, Women Talking and The Banshees of Inisherin all should expect Oscar nominations for Original Score on Tuesday. Still, if there’s a surprise, look out for Avatar: The Way of Water, All Quiet on the Western Front and She Said.

BEST ORIGINAL SONG

The Original Song category feels sewn up for a few strong contenders. After Golden Globe and Critics Choice wins, RRR’s dance extravaganza “Naatu Naatu” sits at the top of the predictions. From there, Lady Gaga and Rihanna are both expected to make it to the Dolby Theater for their songs in Top Gun: Maverick and Black Panther: Wakanda Forever, respectively. Rounding out the expected nominees is “Ciao Papa” from Guillermo Del Toro’s Pinocchio. But what will be the fifth nominee? This is where the category gets tricky. Right now, LCD Soundsystem’s end credits bop “New Body Rhumba” from White Noise is predicted by the writers. However, it’s just as likely we could see famous faces like Taylor Swift (“Carolina” from Where the Crawdads Sing), Rita Wilson (“Til You’re Home” from A Man Called Otto), Ryan Reynolds and Will Ferrell (“Good Afternoon” from Spirited) appear. Perhaps Oscar will go with this year’s Honorary Oscar winner Diane Warren for “Applause” from Tell It Like a Woman. Another end credits song contender is “Stand Up” by Jazmin Sullivan for Till.

BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN

There are quite a few ways the Production Design category could shake out. Only Babylon was unanimously predicted by the Film Experience writers. While Avatar: The Way of Water, Elvis and All Quiet on the Western Front all have a good number of predictions, it’s possible that any of them can be snubbed. Just as Avatar: The Way of Water hopes to repeat in the same category that Avatar won in 2009, Black Panther: Wakanda Forever also hopes to return to the category that Black Panther won in 2018. What could skip past any of these heavy hitters? The most likely culprits would be the grand opulence of Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery or another nomination for Best Picture frontrunner The Fabelmans. Even genre films like Guillermo Del Toro’s Pinocchio and The Batman could be potential contenders.

BEST SOUND

Of the ten movies that made it to the Oscar shortlist for this category, nine of them were cited by one of the Film Experience writers. Everyone mentioned the same top four movies - Top Gun: Maverick, Avatar: The Way of Water, Elvis and All Quiet on the Western Front. Where things get messy is for the final slot. Babylon, Everything Everywhere All At Once and Moonage Daydream all appeared on two writers’ predictions. Meanwhile, superhero films The Batman and Black Panther: Wakanda Forever are each predicted by one writer.

BEST VISUAL EFFECTS

One of the easiest calls this year is that Avatar: The Way of Water will win Best Visual Effects, just like the previous film did in 2009. Both Top Gun: Maverick and The Batman are likely to also earn nominations in this category. The last two spots in the category are fluid. With buzz building, many writers are predicting All Quiet on the Western Front to earn a nomination here. The fifth slot is tied between Black Panther: Wakanda Forever and Nope. Black Panther isn’t the only MCU film in contention, as Doctor Strange in the Multiverse of Madness also contends here. After all, the first film earned a Visual Effects nomination, while the first Black Panther was snubbed. Both Thirteen Lives and Jurassic World: Dominion also made it onto some writer’s predictions, while Fantastic Beasts: The Secrets of Dumbledore received no mentions.

Where do you think the race stands as of now? Let us know in the comments below.

Previous Weeks:

• Round 1: Post Thanksgiving Snapshot
• Round 2: Doc, International & Animation
• Round 3: Oscar Shortlists
• Round 4: Post-Holidays

Comments

[Vanessa]

I'm surprised by the lack of confidence in Chau! She feels firmly in, right? Serious part in a true prestige pic, sympathetic character with standout scenes, supporting a powerhouse lead actor contender from a respected auteur. To me, Bassett, Curtis, or Hsu make more sense as dropoffs, precursors aside.

[Philip H.]

I think Hong Chau has multiple factors working in her favor…

- The Whale has great box office stats and seems to be peaking at the right time
- Emotional showcase opposite a Best Actor frontrunner
- SAG and BAFTA nods
- Downsizing snub from a few years back
- The Menu keeps her fresh in minds with a much different role

But supporting actress does seem to be the most stacked and volatile category.

[Mr Ripley79]

I totally agree with supporting actor and Actress but still can't see no pevious nominee show up in Best Actor which is why I think either Nighy or Mescal for the 5th spot with Cruise or Hanks as spoilers.

Supporting Actress isn't locked beyond Curtis,Bassett and Condon but i'm adding Chau due to a previous snub and good will toward her and of course coatails,i'd predict DeLeon but her films buzz has faded so i'm going Buckley as a surprise.

[Michael R]

So excited they're announcing the nominations live again this year. No more pretaped power point presentations please!

[Peter]

The Whale in general seems like it has a pretty wide range of potential outcomes. You could easily see it as "Eyes of Tammy Faye" 2.0 with Lead performer and makeup noms (and wins) but nothing else, or it could pick up Picture, Screenplay, Supporting Actress nods. Critical reception was so mixed it's hard to predict despite decent precursor performances for Chau and the film across SAG/PGA/BAFTA. Also reminds me a bit of tick, tick, BOOM last year which also seemed like it might sneak into the Best Pic lineup on the back of a PGA nom and obvious Best Actor nominee.

[Gallavich]

How awful would it be if the surprise nominee tomorrow will be Miles Teller for Top Gun or if Chalamet take the fifth spot in best actor for Boners and Holes?

[DK]

I've always thought the "nomination announcer" gig was a little embarrassing...

Riz is an Oscar-winner, but Williams fits the bill of "thirsty young actress with no current awards prospects who's willing to get into hair and makeup at 4:00 a.m. for free, to get in good with the Academy." I suppose it's an honor to be asked, but there's something a little Miss Golden Globe about it!

[Max Brandt]

Hoping for Mescal, De Leon, Keoghan,Chau and Hsu to get in!

@DK, did you really have to make an issue out of Williams announcing? Really? Just can’t help saying something about it. Much ado about nothing. What is happening with our world???

[DK]

@Max—

Probably came out harsher than I meant it to!

I find it amusing...months of anticipation leads us to watching Vanessa Hudgens in a cocktail dress (at 5 a.m. her time) announce whether Meryl Streep has her 25th Oscar nomination.

Meanwhile, the people who get nominated pretend they slept through the announcement and their agent/mom called to wake them up. There's a charming absurdity to it, the whole thing.

[sam low]

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[Ryan Steinke]

Oh boy, it's almost here...

My Five Wishes for tomorrow morning (excluding contenders who are locked for a nom):

1.) TÁR – Best Picture
2.) Aftersun – (at least one nomination anywhere)
3.) EO – International Film
4.) Dolly de Leon – Actress In a Supporting Role
5.) Jamie Lee Curtis – Actress In a Supporting Role

[Claran912]

My predictions:

Best Pic:
EEAAO, Top Gun 2, TAR, Banshees, Fabelmans, All Quiet, Elvis, Avatar 2, Whale, & Women Talking.
Hopediction: Aftersun

Best Dir:
Daniels, Field, Spielberg, McDonagh, Berger (the last spot shld be an international pic dir as in the recent trends w the dir branch)
Hopediction: Charlotte Wells ot Sarah Polley

Best Actress:
Blanchett, Yeoh, Deadwyler, Davis & de Armas (I tink its too late for Williams to turn the tide on her SAG & BAFTA snubs and it is just too late and ridiculous to assume voters wld suddenly switch her to Supp at the 11th hour. Same issue w To Leslie campaign - 2 late 2 little)
Hopediction: Emma Thompson!!!

Best Actor:
Fraser, Farrell, Butler, Nighy, Mescal (I dun ustand this logic of the acting branch resistance to the acting category consists of all 1st time nominees? Do they put in their fav 5 performances and then go: "No no no, they CANT be all 1st time nominees!! We must include at least 1 prev nominee, even if we like his performance less!!" lol)

Best Supp Actress:
Bassett, Condon, Curtis, Hsu & Chau
(I agreed tt Hsu, Chau & de Leon are in a close battle for the last 2 spots. Hsu has the benefit of best pic heat & she was really sweet & charming on the campaign trail. Chau has the benefit of acting opp Best Actor frontrunner; her other well rec'v turn in The Menu; and the memory of the snub for Downsizing 5 yrs ago. Both of them are actively working in Hollywood, which definitely endears them to the Hollywood community i.e. the acting branch more.
Dolly de Leon is probably the passion pick among the critics, who loves how she upends ToS and steals the 3rd act, but ultimately her chance depends on how much the the voters take to ToS; if it cracks Best Pic, then de Leon will likely snag a spot in this category too).

Best Supp Actor:
Quan, Gleeson, Keoghan, Dano & Redmayne (I'm surprised tt pple are still doubting Redmayne's chances after he got in all the major precursors (I dun count critics choice as they usually pick the top 6 in Gold Derby at that time of nom). He is working very hard on the campaign trail and his performance went down very well w British contingent . If someone is vulnerable, I tink Dano shld be the one)

Best Org Screenplay:
EEAAO, TAR, Banshees, Fablemans, & ToS
Hopediction: Aftersun

Best Adp Screeplay:
Women Talking, Glass Onion, Living, All Quiet, & Whale
Hopediction: She Said

No one predicted this but I hope tt TAR gets into Editing too!

[kidflash212]

Less than an hour to go, so I'll throw this prediction out there - Hanks gets the fifth Best Actor slot over Mescal. Not because I think Hanks deserves it but I just think the Academy tends to fall back in to old patterns.