Can Jamie Lee Curtis win the Oscar?
Monday, February 27, 2023 at 12:50AM by Nathaniel R
We'll discuss the full list of SAG winners in the next post but first the big surprise. Tonight's major curveball in the film categories was Jamie Lee Curtis' win for Everything Everywhere All At Once. But perhaps this win shouldn't have felt like a shock at all...
If you think about it, jogging your memory just a hair, it's clear that the Best Supporting Actress race has been volatile all season. TAR's Nina Hoss was widely predicted in the fall but traction didn't take. Early expectations from pundits also suggested that Women Talking would surely land a nod or even two in the category. Janelle Monae and Keke Palmer, both giving juicy star turns in arguably leading roles gained some unexpected traction for Glass Onion and Nope, respectively, but not enough for Oscar heat. Dolly De Leon's MVP status in Triangle of Sadness was never debated and she landed nods at BAFTA and the Globes but an Oscar nomination still failed to materialize. One late punditry fancy that got a bit of steam online was that Michelle Williams might surprise for The Fabelmans despite her leading lady campaign. Then there was the question as to whether Stephanie Hsu, was too green a star to win Oscar traction.
In other words there have been a lot of names jostling for Oscar position for literally months. It hasn't quite been as crazy as 2007, a truly thrilling year where the televised awards just couldn't agree on Supporting Actress, but neither has it been stable. The closest we came to stability was a month where Angela Bassett looked unbeatable, taking both the Globe and the Critics Choice Award for her regal reprisal of Queen Ramonda in Black Panther Wakanda Forever. But then Kerry Condon took the prize at BAFTA and tonight Jamie Lee Curtis took SAG.
We were thrilled for her and admired the enthusiastic self-awareness of her speech. She owned up to being a "nepo baby" (the current internet punching bag term for the many people in the entertainment industry who had a leg up given their famous parents) but also embraced it.
Listen her parents gave her a foot in the door but her talent kept her in the room. She's proven herself over and over again for literally decades of film and television.
More importantly she's great in her SAG winning movie. What she does in Everything Everywhere All At Once is easy to dismiss -- people have, in fact, been easily dismissing comic achievements for literally the entire history of awards shows. Yet the work is impressive if you stop to actually consider it. She's on comic fire in every scene of the movie, with hilarious line readings and unexpected sticky physical choices that make Deirdre Beaubeirdre an unusually memorable character. It's not just the perfect costume that makes her that way.
Jamie Lee Curtis has always been more than Laurie Strode and there's a reason that her breakout role in Halloween isn't her only iconic one. She's been worthy of an Oscar nomination multiple times in her very long career but because she's more gifted at comedy than drama she's been ignored every time... until now. I've now seen EEAAO three times and her work gets better with each viewing. In truth that statement is true of each cast member; these are tricky multi-level roles pulled off with buckets of style, tonal precision, and true imagination.
But back to the race for the naked gold man.
Has Curtis stolen the narrative thunder of Angela Bassett? "Hollywood Legend Finally Gets Their Due From the Academy" has been a sturdy narrative that has resulted in wins in all four acting categories with some regularity. But it's also possible that this moment was just SAG being SAG since they do know how to throw a curveball. They also love honoring their own and Curtis has deep roots in the acting community and movie history.
Do the dueling campaigns of Curtis and Bassett -- both entirely focused on the star's rich career rather than the strength of their individual performances -- suggest that they could split the sentimental vote, allowing BAFTA winner Condon to surprise on Oscar night?
We'll be holding our breath until they open the envelope. How about you?
Reader Comments (36)
I can't see the Academy giving EEAAO three acting Oscars, but both SAG and BAFTA have really thrown this year's acting races wide open, in a good way. Except for Supporting Actor, the other categories all have 2-3 plausible winners. Good stuff.
Right now, I'd say:
Actress: Blanchett vs. Yeoh -- slight edge Yeoh
Actor: Fraser vs. Farrell vs. Butler -- slight edge Butler
Supp Actress: Curtis vs. Bassett vs. Condon -- slight edge Bassett
I think all acting races with exception of supporting actor are up for grabs. Jamie Lee Curtis was previously nominated for Sag for True Lies so we might say Sag is a little more favorable to her than Oscar. Nonetheless, she delivered a good speech. And voting for Oscar begins this Thursday, hence in my opinion she will be fresh in voters minds.
Think she can, yeah. Still leaning Bassett, as well as Fraser, Blanchett and (of course) Quan. Rooting for Yeoh bigtime.
Thumbs DOWN for Curtis. I hated the performance on practically every level. I also thought Basset fine for the type of role it was.
For me Kerry would be my vote.
SAG's pics are always the most commercial of the major awards, so no real surprises here. I think the international contingent of the academy is not as high on EEAAO as Americans, and i think that may very well throw a surprise win Kerry Condon's way. I even think Colin is still in the running and that Best Actor is very, very open. I think end of day that EEAAO will win pic, director, and supporting actor, but Cate will pull through, and Banshees will win supp actress and screenplay (and maybe Colin if he can squeak by Austin Butler).
While the SAG wins for Yeoh and Curtis are nice (and I'm rooting like heck for them to win), I still see them as underdogs when it comes to the Oscar. I do think the strong showing for Everything Everywhere All at Once does solidify it as the favorite for Best Picture, especially since it also won the PGA and DGA.
Also only marginally related, I recently found a magazine in Taiwan from November 1993 that had Ke Huy Quan on the cover to promote his TV drama The Big Eunuch and the Little Carpenter. I had a friend in Taiwan buy it for me, and when I looked inside there was an article about Michelle Yeoh and her return to acting after her divorce, I thought it was a great juxtaposition, and it would be awesome if they can both win the Oscar.
I think she’s a top contender and could win. But this also feels like 2000 or 2007 in this category. Anyone could win on Oscar night.
The JLC win is more of an indicator of a few things about the broader race than her, though. I think it indicates that the supporting actress race is wide open and that the acting Branch really really love EEAAO. I’m not sure what happens when other branches get a whack at this category, but I think the acting Branch will be key in getting the film over the line in BP.
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Wow i'm so pleased,i have been bleating on all year that JLC can win and nearly everyone has her as a just happy to be there nominee.
It's 2007 all over again.
Love the SAG winners tonight and their acceptance speeches.
If this category is wide open (which I'd prefer than having a frontrunner), wouldn't it be great to actually see Stephanie Hsu win? I like all the nominees for this category but in my heart of hearts, I thought Stephanie Hsu was EEAAO's secret weapon. Range and tonal colors, all there.
As much as I like Angela Bassett in her film I think JLC is the one who should get the career honour type win,Marvel movies as good as they might be leave me cold.
Jamie Lee Curtis is a legend and you've all been incredibly disrespectful this awards season.
What a speech.
If this year the Oscar is going to an overdue legendary actress I hope it's Jamie over Angela. Better role, better performance in a better, more deserving film. Jamie also promoted the crap out of EEAAO. Black Panther is a joke and Angela is not good in it. Sorry not sorry.
I still think Angela is the frontrunner, but I think both Kerry and Jamie have a chance. I would give the slight edge to Kerry so Banshees doesn't go home empty handed. It has to win SOMETHING, right?
In regards to Butler snagging the Oscar, I Think not! Fraser won SAG & the CC. Consider Fraser's rightful distain for the Globes was expressed long before I'm surprised he even got a nomination.
With that said Fraser's narrative comeback story is the most solid, as well as the snub for Gods & Monsters in the supporting actor nomination in 1998.
As for Kwan considering I saw EEAAO long before award season & at the beginning of Yeoh's buzz, I was thinking "What about him?" The fact sweeping all the awards is AWSOME as well as surprising.
JLC has the about time as well as the Hollywood royalty angle. Screw this nepo crap. Yes it gets you in the door but your talent and skills keeps you there. JLC has that in abundance!!!
Yeoh was great as well and she has the career and the an Asian not getting a lead actress nomination let alone the award Oscar. Besides Tar was a bore plus Blanchett really doesn't need a 3rd on her mantle for this performance at least.
I do home all 4 win but I think one will go home empty handed. I won't say because I don't want to jinx any of them.
The last time Supporting Actress was this competitive was 2007, and I wound up predicting Tilda Swinton simply because she won the BAFTA, which at that time was the last of the major precursor ceremonies before Oscar night, so I figured I’d just follow the momentum. Now that SAG is after the BAFTAs, I’m inclined to believe Jamie Lee Curtis has the edge, albeit a very slight one.
This is genuinely a three-woman race, and to be totally honest I wouldn’t even count out the possibility of a Marcia Gay Harden-esque surprise win for Hong Chau (I’m only excluding Stephanie Hsu because I figure the EEAAO contingency will be behind JLC).
The only way this crazy year should end would be with Stephanie Hsu's shock (and most deserved) win. Very unlikely to happen, but I'm enjoying the current chaos right now. I'm totally okay with any of the 3 likely winners and you're so right about this category being the most volatile all season. I think I said that about Best Actor pre-SAG thinking Bassett would win there, but the pendulum has swung yet again.
Like others have said, I'm not banking of EEAAO to actually nab 3 acting wins (boy that'd be really something though) so I'm still predicting Bassett in the end.
If these repeat at the Oscars, then it's basically the overdue career narrative for every winner this year and that kinda irritates me. (I am counting Ke Huy in that category - the narrative is still about the career, even if it's the lack of one)
I could easily see Jamie Lee repeating at the Oscars - she's well liked, everyone's worked with her, she's been campaigning all year, and she has the leading film, which Angela Bassett doesn't have. It's a coin flip, but I may stick with predicting Kerry Condon as the logic of Angela and Jamie cancelling each other out makes some sense to me.
I like that these acting awards still have some unpredictability, especially with Best Picture such a foregone conclusion at this point. Otherwise, all my faves are dead and the EEAAO march to victory doesn't interest me.
I think Bassett’s “career honors” narrative is stronger than Curtis’s—simply because she’s in the race at all, no offense. The appetite to award her is stronger than Hollywood’s misgivings about the acting in Marvel movies. She’s very good in BPWF but is she a full, Oscar-level standard deviation better than Danai Gurira in the same movie? Not sure. The desire to get Angela Bassett an Oscar has gotten her this far, that’s what this is really about.
On the other hand, Curtis has her own “career honors” narrative, and mileage may vary. She surely has lots of friends and admirers too. I would venture to say her performance has more integrity, her film is more beloved. But then, comedy vs. drama! Points against Curtis for how silly (and possibly divisive? Not sure.) the performance is.
I think it’s going to be one of them. I personally can’t see Condon winning this. I do wonder who would win if voters were required to pick the nominee they thought gave the best performance.
The show was abysmal ... actors should be able to express themselves. there were only a small handful who seemed up for the night.
Sally Field was good, but she had time to rehearse... others were just ridiculous. I know I will get some flack for my comment... but I stand by it
BTW. I have watched all of the AWARDSHOWS since I was in my teens.
This is a dynamite lineup and I will scream with joy on March 12th for whoever wins.
I was a Jamie Lee voter before SAG-Aftra and I got my smackdown ballot to prove it!
I don't think Curtis' performance (or movie) is that widely divisive. I think many will find it too sleight or light entertainment rather than the serious drama they look for. Bassett had drama and power, but it seemed borderline over the top at times. I think the edge would go with Bassett between the two of them, but who knows if the Academy will love EEAAO to the same degree SAG did. I could see Condon being a kind of split-the-baby solution.
This is such a great lineup and all of them are deserving one way or the other.
I am not sure that EEAAO can win 3 acting awards. Which is the last movie to do so? Network, I think? Jamie Lee win at SAG basically solidified EEAAO as the best pic frontrunner.
And thank you for describing why Jamie Lee deserved her nomination. I know a lot of people are not happy with her nomination but it's such an inspired pick.
In the end, I think the British and European contingent will push Kerry Condon to the finish line considering EEAAO underperformed at the Globes, BAFTA and AACTA.
At least Jamie Lee, Angela, and Kerry got their moment on awards telecast. Both Stephanie and Hong Chau got nominated so I can't be happier with how this category turned out..except for Dolly not showing up here but you can't win it all.
I'm happy she won. Yes, she's second-generation but so what. She's proved herself for nearly 5 decades of how good she is so an award for her like this is overdue.
Can Jamie Lee Curtis win? Sure, and she honestly might with all the good will towards her. I’m not a fan of her movie but she’s good in it and by far the best supporting actress from it.
Kerry Condon is fine in her movie but man I just kept waiting for her to do something interesting and it never happens. Her SAG clip is a perfect example: it’s just her saying “Feckin’”. It gets old fast. I’m literally already annoyed with her in that film.
Angela is fine but…lol it’s Marvel guys. It’s a miracle she got nominated. Oscars hate acting in superhero movies more than they hate acting in horror films. So yeah, it’s a miracle she got nominated.
I wonder about Hong Chau. It’s a more traditional role than, like, ALL except Condon. Her two problems are that she just hasn’t won anything and her film isn’t super loved.
I’m leaning towards Condon winning with JLC as the alternate. But JLC would be such a bizarre performance to win.
I think there’s a path for literally any of the 5.
I know Kerry Condon deserves the Oscar, she delivered the best performance.
But my heart belongs to Jamie. And it's crying: JAMIE LEE CURTIS FOR THE WIN!!!
I know Nathaniel disagrees strongly with this, but I just don't think JLC is a "there is no justice if she doesn't get an Oscar" person. In terms of women, Glenn Close is, Michelle Pfeiffer is, Amy Adams is, Toni Collette is, Michelle Williams is, Angela Basset is. And don't get me started on the directors or men. We'd be here all night.
That said, Oscars aren't just about excellence in acting. If they were, Laurence Oliver would have won six, and Ingmar Bergman's actors would have won two or three awards every year, year after year, in the late 50s, 1960s and early 70s.
With that in mind, Jamie Lee Curtis's speech actually made me decide I'll be happy if she wins, because she's Jamie Lee F***ing Curtis, that's why--even though I'd vote for Basset, myself.
Like Paranoid Andrew, I think there are a lot of voters who will not want to vote for EEAAO three times in acting categories. On the other hand, there are probably a lot of racists (many unconsciously so) in the Academy who will not vote for three people of color in a single year even though I want to say that has happened at least once, but I can't remember the year. Has it happened? I'm not saying I wouldn't be happy if it did, in fact my votes would be: Yeoh, Basset, Ke Huy Quan, and Farrell. It will be interesting to see how it shakes out. If Curtis wins, that might increase chances that Yeoh will prevail. If Basset wins, and we assume some racism, suddenly Blanchett's odds go up a bit. Hopefully we're past that, but THE WOMAN KING and TILL's absence doesn't have me too optimistic.
It's funny. I realize I'd be happy if EEAAO won three acting awards, but I'll be disappointed if (should I say "when"?) EEAAO wins best picture. I just don't think it's that good. The actors carry it. There are at least four, maybe five other nominated films that deserve to win over it, in my estimation.
Charlea I don't get the Condon love either
I have the feeling that people has been asleep throughout JLC's campaigning. She has been always aiming to Oscar. She just needed noms and one key win (SAG) to earn the Oscar, which is the industry. Once she has secured her peers validation and given a memorable speech, next step - thanks to the synergies created by all EEAAO cast and crew, plus the Oscar being not just a validation for her, but to her nominated but never winners of an Oscar, parents - is Oscar.
I would actually be surprised if EEAAO doesn't win 3 acting awards. Heck, I would be surprised if SAG and Oscar don't match completely... 4 likeable actors giving 4 great speeches...
Watching Jamie Lee Curtis this awards season, so full of love and enthusiasm for the film and the cast, kept reminding me of Sandra Oh the year “Sideways” came out.
Sandra attended every event, looking beautiful, and full of fresh enthusiasm, no matter how many events there were. And the awards were always, always, for somebody else in the film, never for her. Yet she was truly happy for them. I kept thinking, why isn’t Sandra nominated? I haven’t even seen the movie yet and I already like her best.
So I was a little sad for Jamie Lee. I’m happy that she got this one award, the one from her peers. I’m fine with Angela or Stephanie winning the Oscar though.
Yes, Jamie Lee Curtis can win (and she should). It's between her and Condon now (I think Bassett is out - awarding a Marvel movie an acting trophy was always going to be a battle and if SAG, the most populist of the group, didn't go for it, I don't see AMPAS voters going there either.)
Fabio: my thoughts EXACTLY.
That's it, Michael. 🤜🏻🤛🏻
I worry this actually could hurt Yeoh. It means that people *will* be voting for Curtis in significant numbers and as others have noted, seems unlikely that people would tick Quan, Curtis(/or even Hsu) and Yeoh together. Quan and Yeoh, sure. But all three? Hmm.
I love it tt suddently Best Supp Actress race is soooooooo wide open!! I tink its the hardest acting catergory to predict now & IMO it can actually go 4 ways (sorry, Hong Chau).
I dun tink any one is half sure who really is gonna win here. Bassett got the CC & Globe, Condon; the Bafta, and now JLC the SAG. I agreed tt JLC has the slight edge now with her endearing speech peaking at the sweet moment just before Oscar voting starts. But how could EEAAO stans vote for her over Steph Hsu who is truly the breakout star of EEAAO?
Wouldn't it be great if Hsu nabbed the Oscar , upending the precursors race!! (Hello, Marcia Gay Harden) lol.
This race fascinates me. Let's say Hong gets 10% of the vote and finishes in fifth. That leaves 90% of the votes up for grabs. The remaining 4 contenders are going to split the votes fairly evenly I would imagine - they all have huge pockets of support. Therefore the ultimate victor could easily win with only 23% of the votes or so. What an exciting race!