Oscar Stat Fun - No Sweeps in the Modern Era but can "EEAAO" change that?
Tuesday, March 7, 2023 at 5:00PM by Nathaniel R
That complete sweep at the Spirits and SAG has us wondering now whether or not Everything Everywhere All At Once will win Best Picture but how many statues in total can actually win. We haven't seen a sweeper at the Oscars in a long long time. Yes some films have won all their categories but they aren't true "sweepers" i.e. thoroughly dominant movies. It would be technically accurate, for example, to say that CODA performed a clean sweep last season. It did win all of its categories but it wasn't a sweeper in any meaningful sense since it was only up for 3 Oscars.
In fact, a big sweep hasn't yet happened in the expanded Best Picture era! Can Everything Everywhere All At Once change that? Let's look at the history and stats after the jump...
The last sweeper, Slumdog Millionaire, was 14 years ago
The expanded era, for those that have lost track, began in 2009 when they moved briefly to 10 nominees. They'd adjust slightly two years later to a sliding scale which always produced either 8 or 9 nominees and now we're back to a full 10. Here at TFE we've always had mixed feelings about making the Best Picture race so large. Statistically it has resulted in fewer films being recognized across all categories which is a curse. The silver lining is that one film has rarely been deemed the Best of Everything since a "Best Picture" citation became easier to land; A contradictory outcome -- there's less spreading of wealth in nominations, but more winners. The easiest way to spot this new contradiction is the fact that Best Picture and Best Director splits, which were once rare, are now common.
Six statues has proven itself as the max haul for popular movies on Oscar nights in this new era. Here are a few observations about the whole thing. 2008 was the last year of the traditional Best Picture era (i.e. only five nominees). Slumdog Millionaire swept with 8 wins (from 10 nominations... losing only Sound Editing, since it was double-nominated in Original Song). No film since has won that many Oscars.
Most Oscars won since the Expanded Era began
2009 - Hurt Locker (6)
2010 - Inception and The King's Speech (4 each)
2011 - The Artist and Hugo (5 each)
2012 - Life of Pi (4)
2013 - Gravity (7)
2014 - Birdman and Grand Budapest Hotel (4 each)
2015 - Mad Mad Fury Road (6)
2016 - La La Land (6)
2017 - The Shape of Water (4)
2018 - Bohemian Rhapsody (4)
2019 - Parasite (4)
2020 - Nomadland (3)
2021 - Dune (6)
As you can see as little as four Oscars now often makes you the "top" winner. It's interesting to note that of the 16 films that "won the most Oscars" in their years in the expanded era, over half of them did NOT win Best Picture. The exception proving the rule of the new 'six maximum' reality is Gravity which won 7 but lost the big prize.
No film has truly "swept" in the past 13 years ...none have really even come close to sweeping. Now compare that to the previous set of thirteen years and it's striking.
The English Patient (1996)
Most Oscar wins before the expansion in the same amount of time
1996 - The English Patient (9) a sweep
1997 - Titanic (11) a sweep
1998 - Shakespeare in Love (7)
1999 - American Beauty (5)
2000 - Gladiator (5)
2001 - A Beautiful Mind and Lord of the Rings: Fellowship of the Ring (4 each)
2002 - Chicago (6)
2003 - Lord of the Rings: Return of the King (11) a clean sweep winning every category it was up for
2004 - The Aviator (5)
2005 - Brokeback Mountain, Crash, King Kong, and Memoirs of a Geisha (an anomalous year with 4 films winning 3 each)
2006 - The Departed (4)
2007 - No Country For Old Men (4)
2008 - Slumdog Millionaire (8) a sweep
So "sweeps" basically ended with the Best Picture expansion. Since less movies are nominated now each year across all categories, high nomination counts are, as a result, normalized. Clean sweeps are now even more difficult to pull off.
We will eventually see a sweep again in the modern era. It might even be next weekend if Everything Everywhere All At Once can win, say, 7 or 8 statues. But can it?
Everything Everywhere All At Once's 10 categories
PICTURE - frontrunner
DIRECTOR - frontrunner
ACTRESS - nail-biter race
SUPPORTING ACTOR - frontrunner
SUPPORTING ACTRESS - potential spoiler
ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY -nail-biter race
FILM EDITING - frontrunner
COSTUME DESIGN - not expected to win
ORIGINAL SCORE - not expected to win
ORIGINAL SONG - not expected to win
Everything Everywhere... is considered the strong frontrunner in 4 categories (Picture, Director, Supporting Actor, and Editing) and there's very little chance now that it *won't* emerge as the film that wins the most Oscars on March 12th.
But how many can it win?
If the nail-biter categories (Actress, Screenplay) go its way that's 6 Oscars which is the unofficial maximum haul now as we've outlined above. If it takes Best Supporting Actress (and that SAG win for Jamie Lee Curtis proves prophetic) that would be 7 Oscars which would tie it with Gravity in the expanded era. All the headlines would surely read "Sweep!"... though to be fair the headlines will read "sweep" even if it only wins 4 or 5 Oscars because headlines love hyperbole and media journalism tends to have very loose definitions of words.
But we personally wouldn't consider it a sweeper if it's under 7 Oscars (we're awards nerds that way) unless its just six and it takes all three of its acting categories which is so extremely rare as to be enormously noteworthy and dominant.
A Streetcar Named Desire (1951)
THE ONLY FILMS IN HISTORY TO WIN 3 ACTING CATEGORIES
A Streetcar Named Desire (1951)
Network (1976)
Yep, that's the complete list. Very short. Interesting that neither of the films won Best Picture in their year, though. What's more they're both very hard-hitting DRAMAS. As a comedy, Everything Everywhere All At Once taking multiple acting Oscars would be beyond unusual and cement it in history as one of Oscar's all time favourite films.
Currently while Supporting Actress is competitive, and Supporting Actor is Everything's only acting "lock"... a Best Actress (Yeoh) /Best Supporting Actor (Quan) combo feels quite possible. This exact category combo has only happened six times in history and curiously in NO previous cases did the actors play a married couple. Though onscreen marrieds have won Oscars together it's never happened in this exact combo.
FILMS THAT HAVE WON BOTH BEST ACTRESS & BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
(and what the relationships were)
A Streetcar Named Desire (1951) - romantic interests
Hud (1963) - employer and employee
Cabaret (1972) - coworkers
Terms of Endearment (1983) - romantic interests
Million Dollar Baby (2004) - coworkers
Three Billboards (2017) - angry citizen and cop
Onscreen marriages have won double Oscars before but it's rare and it's never happened with the Actress/Supporting Actor combo.
Sayonara (1957) - the first time an onscreen married relationship resulted in two acting Oscars
THE ONLY TIMES AN ONSCREEN MARRIAGE HAS RESULTED IN TWO ACTING OSCARS*
Sayonara (1957) -both supporting
Kramer vs Kramer (1979) -lead actor, supporting actress
On Golden Pond (1980) -both lead
The fun thing about the EEAAO possible double-win is that it will complete the category combo possibilities for a marriage winning two acting Oscars... (at least until someday far in the future if the categories stay gendered and a same-sex marriage results in two wins.)
* not including movies where a wedding or engagement happens at the very end since the movie isn't about a marriage
So considering all that -- yes it's a lot but so is Everything Everywhere -- how many Oscar do you think EEAAO can take on Oscar night... and which ones?
Reader Comments (13)
It’s worth noting that Slumdog lost the Oscar for Best Song to itself, so it was even sweepier than it looks at first glance, only really losing outright Sound Editing, to The Dark Knight.
Optramark -- ooh good catch.
Ellie Andrews and Peter Warne marry at the end of It Happened One Night. Claudette Colbert and Clark Gable won Best Actress and Best Actor for the 1934 comedy. Was this overlooked or do marriages that occur within the story not merit inclusion in the statistic?
All the awards the movie is suddenly getting everywhere all at once (SAG, Spirits, Guilds, etc.) is what gives me pause on a sweep -- nobody wants to reward a movie *that* much. Now that it seems possible it could win *everything* I think the "overkill" factor will rein in surprise wins beyond the expected. I think it wins 5 -- Pic, Director, Actress, Supp Actor, Editing. I think Screenplay goes to Tar to give it some love somewhere, and ditto Condon (!) in Supp Actress. It's as you said -- it's too comedic/bizarre to be a stats all-timer with the Academy.
...that said, let's play the always-fun game, "if there were five":
Everything Everywhere All at Once
Tar
The Fabelmans
Banshees of Inisherin
Elvis
A pic/director split with Triangle of Sadness and Elvis. And despite its high overall nom count, I don't think All Quiet hits the zeitgeist enough to make it in a 5-wide field.. very few foreign films did.
I'm not ready to assume that EEAAO is going to win Best Picture.
I don't say this to manufacture drama, but I'm very skeptical that any film has it in the bag when it's a (1) comedy (2) with fantasy elements (3) and gay themes (4) starring mostly non-white actors. Even if that film has won the PGA, the DGA, and SAG ensemble.
Some of the Academy's recent choices suggest that they are willing to punish a perfectly good film for winning too many precursor awards, either by members assuming themselves that the film doesn't need their vote, or by actively breaking out from the perception of a hive mind.
As with Slumdog Millionaire, I look forward to the victory, but I'll believe it when it happens.
It's not gonna win best song...
Is Everything Everywhere really not the frontrunner for Original Screenplay?
Brevity - the times they are a-changing and I think the 20's will be all about representation. At this point it's nearly impossible for EEOAO to lose. Maybe if there was a strong contender, but what would it lose to?
I think it's peaking at the right time (it seems like it has been peaking for months though) and I say it gets:
-Picture
-Directors
-Screenplay
-Actress
-Supporting Actor
-Editing
No idea who gets Supporting Actress.
Funny because I started this race like 'whatever, I don't care' and now I'm genuinely excited, almost hysterical.
Peggy Sue, I know what you mean. If you asked me 11 months ago, I would LEGIT have been completely satisfied and even ecstatic if Michelle Yeoh just got a solitary nod (not even a win!) for the film. And now.. I. WANT. IT. ALL.
I'm still keeping my expectations in check. When it comes to movies about people of color, nothing is ever locked.
If they wanted to spread the wealth, what would they give? Tar could take actress and Banshees could still win screenplay, otherwise do both go home empty? Avatar, AQOTWF, and Maverick win some tech awards and Triangle already won the Palm D'Or. The big question is does Fabelmans go home empty despite being probably 2nd in most of the categories it is nominated in? Is Spielberg still the frontrunner?
I honestly don't know how the night will go. EEAAO could win up to 7 or as little as 2.
I’m surprised you consider EEAAO a decisive front runner for editing. Given how often that category deviates from precursors like BAFTA, I think it’s still very much a race between it and Top Gun, a more traditional blockbuster winner. I would say it’s very likely for BP, Directing, and Sup Actor… The rest are a toss up, beyond costumes, song, and score.
MAN, THIS IS THE POST FOR OSCAR NERDS.
Nat, you're the one! ✨️🥂🍾