Who could surprise *without* SAG/Globe precursors on Tuesday?

The following article is reprinted from The Many Rantings of John with his permission. We have attempted to lure him to joining The Film Experience but we had to share this wonderful stat-fascinating piece! You should also follow him on Letterboxd. (Consider this piece a companion of sorts to Chris's piece on statistically who might still be vulnerable despite love from the precursors)

Sipping Oscar tea

by John T.

Every year since 2006 at least one nominee for the Oscars was not highlighted by either the HFPA (the Golden Globes) or SAG-AFTRA, and becomes the "shock" of the morning.  At this point in the season, predicting the Oscars is something of a slog because so much is "decided" so trying to guess who will be this nominee becomes quite fun.  

Here are the people from the past ten years who fit this bill:

2021: Penelope Cruz, Jesse Plemons, JK Simmons, Judi Dench, & Jessie Buckley
2020: Paul Raci & LaKeith Stanfield
2019: Florence Pugh
2018: Marina de Tavira & Yalitza Aparicio
2017: Lesley Manville
2016: Michael Shannon
2015: Charlotte Rampling, Tom Hardy, & Mark Ruffalo
2014: Bradley Cooper, Marion Cotillard, & Laura Dern
2013: Jonah Hill
2012: Quvenzhane Wallis, Emmanuelle Riva, & Jacki Weaver

Usually the types of nominees that get in under this designation fall into one of two categories...

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Split Decision: "The Fabelmans"

No two people feel the same exact way about any film. Thus, Team Experience is pairing up to debate the merits of each of the big awards season movies this year. Here’s Ben Miller and Eurocheese to argue over The Fabelmans

EUROCHEESE: Ben, I've never been a huge Spielberg defender, so here's my chance! I was bound to see The Fabelmans through rose-colored glasses because I saw its glowing reception with Steven Spielberg and John Williams in person at the AFI Festival.  Even so, scene after scene landed with me and I left the theater smiling ear-to-ear. I'm curious to hear what didn't land with you...

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Oscar Volley: Two locks for Supporting Actor... and then it's wide open?

Here are Chris James and Eric Blume to discuss one of Oscar's trickiest categories, Best Supporting Actor:

ERIC:  Chris, so happy to be reunited with you, this time to discuss the Best Supporting Actor Oscar.  This category is always one of the weirdest and often the worst... I'm still not done being angry that arguably-bad Troy Kotsur beat the genius work of Kodi Smit-McPhee last year.  But that's how this award often goes.  

Let's start with our "locks".  I think we have two:  Brendan Gleeson and Ke Huy Quan.  And that's great news, because they're both splendid performances and either would be one of the best winners in this category for the last decade.  Gleeson is the embodiment of tragicomedy, and Quan finds that perfect note between farce and realism in an incredibly playful piece of acting.  How do you feel about Gleeson and Quan personally, and would you agree they're locks? 

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NYFF: Kelly Reichardt continues her perfect track record doing absolutely no wrong with the subtle marvel of 'Showing Up'

by Jason Adams

The worlds that writer-director Kelly Reichardt grants us access to with her movies are special places. Even if they’re filled with terrors, as they very often are – her wonderful 2013 eco-thriller Night Moves is not as out of place as it might initially seen – they’re all so delicately spun you might find yourself not breathing lest the spell be broken. The grace on display in her work is meditative, plaintive, lovely even in the most dire of straits. They are quite simply always one of my favorite places to visit. 

And her latest titled Showing Up, which reunites Reichardt with actress Michelle Williams for the first time since 2016’s Certain Women, is another wondrous, delicate world – one I know I’ll be returning to time after time, year after year, to soak in, to absorb whatever wonders and mysteries I can from someone whose view of existence I’m thankful for receiving every single damn time...

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