Who could surprise *without* SAG/Globe precursors on Tuesday?

The following article is reprinted from The Many Rantings of John with his permission. We have attempted to lure him to joining The Film Experience but we had to share this wonderful stat-fascinating piece! You should also follow him on Letterboxd. (Consider this piece a companion of sorts to Chris's piece on statistically who might still be vulnerable despite love from the precursors)

Sipping Oscar tea

by John T.

Every year since 2006 at least one nominee for the Oscars was not highlighted by either the HFPA (the Golden Globes) or SAG-AFTRA, and becomes the "shock" of the morning.  At this point in the season, predicting the Oscars is something of a slog because so much is "decided" so trying to guess who will be this nominee becomes quite fun.  

Here are the people from the past ten years who fit this bill:

2021: Penelope Cruz, Jesse Plemons, JK Simmons, Judi Dench, & Jessie Buckley
2020: Paul Raci & LaKeith Stanfield
2019: Florence Pugh
2018: Marina de Tavira & Yalitza Aparicio
2017: Lesley Manville
2016: Michael Shannon
2015: Charlotte Rampling, Tom Hardy, & Mark Ruffalo
2014: Bradley Cooper, Marion Cotillard, & Laura Dern
2013: Jonah Hill
2012: Quvenzhane Wallis, Emmanuelle Riva, & Jacki Weaver

Usually the types of nominees that get in under this designation fall into one of two categories...

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Linky Chatterley

• Cartoon Brew the long awaited animated feature adaptation Nimona is back on. Now at Netflix since Disney shuttered it mid production. It was first announced way back in 2017.
• Out Pedro Almodóvar's gay western short Strange Way of Life will premiere at Cannes in May
• AV Club RIP documentarian Julia Reichert (American Factory)

NIMONA

More after the jump including Paul Mescal's taste buds, Amazon Prime numbers, Lady Chatterley's Lover sex scenes, and a tribute to a movie poster giant...

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Which young male actors will factor into awards season?

by Nathaniel R

Gabriel Labelle in "The Fabelmans"

While rising stars are a semi-annual event in the female acting categories, Oscar voters have long been resistant to young male actors. The statistics bear this out. For whatever reason (cough *the patriarchy*) voters prefer their women young / full of potential and their men older / with lots of achievements already under their belt. Yes, those stats are beginning to change. For example, Oscar voters have been much kinder to 40something to 60something actresses in the past couple of decades than they previously were. With the men, though, things have stayed much the same. 

Once men enter their 30s, awards bodies tend to take them seriously but before the 30something years it definitely takes a very special combination of the right role in the right film in the right year and with the right co-stars. Do you think any of these men will make it this year? Here are eight actors, thirty or younger, that are in the conversation or adjacent to it this season...

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Links/News

• NYT Fun Avatar Way of the Water discussion with James Cameron, Sigourney Weaver, Zoe Saldaña, and Sam Worthington
• Mashable a list of family-safe horror movies if you like spooky but hate gore (this describes me!)
• IndieWire first gushing reactions to Black Panther Wakanda Forever
• Parade Comprehensive Jessica Chastain interview. She wants to remake Death Becomes Her which... sorry, why not just a legacy sequel with new character? Streep & Hawn are still with us

More after the jump including Paul Mescal, Lupita Nyong'o, James Gunn, Jennifer Lawrence and Everything Everywhere All At Once Oscar campaigning...

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Tweetweek: Now with a valid driver's license.

Warning: The following image causes wrinkles, eye bags, and sore backs.

how it started vs how it's going... pic.twitter.com/585VXhLRIW

— Jacob Tremblay (@JacobTremblay) October 23, 2022

In case you weren't feeling like the crypt-keeper yet, Jacob Tremblay would like to remind you how very ancient you, in fact, are! That tiny prodigiously talented Room star can now drive cars and will be able to vote in the next Presidential election.

Less disturbing showbiz tweets -- mostly of the funny, thoughtful, giddy variety -- are curated for you after the jump... 

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